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Business angels in Germany
(2000)
This paper looks at the value-relevance of accounting data and measures of web-traffic for Internet firms listed on the Neuer Markt. In particular, the objective is to identify value drivers during the period from October 1999 to May 2000. In doing so, the study attempts to contribute to the understanding of the investment behaviour of market participants during that time, in a market environment characterised by rapid technological change and growth. The study subdivides Internet companies into Ecommerce and Enabler firms and analyses the value-relevance accordingly. It emerged that, across both samples, no significant value-relevance of traditionally applied financial valuation metrics such as earnings and cashflow could be evidenced. However, a positive association of total sales with market capitalisation can be shown for both samples, and in addition, sales and marketing expenses (Ecommerce) as well as research and development costs (Enabler) can also be identified as value drivers. Furthermore, the paper finds a number of webmetrics to be highly value-relevant and positively associated with market capitalisation, viz. customer loyalty, reach, page impressions and unique visitors. Combining and comparing the information content and value-relevance supports the notion that webmetrics, which are not part of standardised reporting regulations, did provide at least as much explanatory power for variations in market value as standardised accounting data.
In search of alpha
(2015)
In this study we develop a trading strategy that exploits limited investor attention. Trading signals for US S&P 500 stocks stocks are derived from Google Search Volume data, taking a long position if investor attention for the corresponding security was abnormally low in the past week. Our strategy generates 19% average annual return and thereby outperforms a simple market buy-and-hold strategy. After controlling for the well-known risk factors, a significant alpha (abnormal return) of 10% p.a. remains. Returns are sufficiently large to cover transaction costs.
This study provides novel insights to the ongoing debate how market efficiency is challenged by investor behavior. Applying search engine data we find that retail investor attention can enhance market efficiency. High attention is associated with better incorporation of idiosyncratic stock information, which we interpret as improved pricing efficiency. This effect is even more pronounced in bullish markets. In bearish markets, however, retail investor attention leads to a deterioration of pricing efficiency, which might be explained with herding behavior. Our evidence holds for a broad sample of European and US stocks.
The constant introduction of new products is of great importance for the long-term financial success of companies. Newly launched products in consumer goods and services markets show high failure rates, often reaching 50%. In order to reduce flop rates, companies can integrate innovative and knowledgeable customers, so called 'lead users', into the new product development process. However, the detection of such lead users is difficult, especially in consumer goods markets with very large customer bases. A new and potentially valuable approach for the identification of lead users are virtual stock markets, which have been proposed and applied for political and business forecasting, but not for expert identification yet. The goal of this paper is to analyze theoretically and empirically the feasibility of virtual stock markets for lead user identification. We find in our empirical study that virtual stock markets are an effective instrument to identify lead users in consumer goods markets. Using the proposed method, companies operating in these markets can identify lead users more easily and integrate them into new product development projects. Thus, they can improve the innovation processes and reduce new product flop rates.
Nursing without caring?
(2019)
We know that existing professions in the health care sector value work environment and job conditions to a great extent. However, we are also witnessing an expansion of new roles into the health care sector, many of which substitutie the tasks of existing professions. This may be efficient, in that it releases professionals’ time. However, there is little understanding of what motivates these new professions in entering or remaining in these newly created roles. This study tries to evaluate the preference structure of one of these new staff groups, surgical technologist, through examining the preferences of trainees, defined over a number of attributes, in this group. The DCE study covers 80% of the target population. The results show a vigorous disfavour towards any perceived nursing job characteristics such as caring activities, hierarchical work environment or shift types. The results inform policy makers and hospital manager about the importance to focus not only on the nursing profession but also to take into account the existence of a group of people who is willing to work within the health care system however, associated with strong preferences against nursing activities, especially caring. Implementing and further development of new and specialised profession through reallocating former nursing tasks- should be considered while coping with labour shortage.
The profession of anaesthesia technologist is a relatively new profession in Germany. The German hospital Association published the first training guideline in 2011. Likewise the surgical technologist profession, the profession of anaesthesia technologists are not officially certified. Hence, similar disadvantages such as further career restrictions and uncertainties in case of unemployment exist. Even the hospitals need to cover the full training expenses. The training of an anaesthesia technologist lasts three years, containing of practical work experience within the anaesthesia units such as the post-anaesthesia caring unit and a theoretical education. The action site is limited to the anaesthesia units only. An anaesthesia technologist is an assistant to the doctor and takes care of the patient before, during and after the anaesthesia. Since the anaesthesia technologist profession is a very young profession group, little is known about the preferences of this group. However, hospital manager need to understand the individual preferences to be able to provide a target group tailored recruitment.
The motivation was to provide results to inform the human resource management of hospitals about the preferences of the very young profession group of anaesthesia technologist with respect to contribute to a successful development of this profession in order to cope with the current labour shortage crisis.
Do FOMC members herd?
(2011)
Twice a year FOMC members submit forecasts for growth, unemployment and inflation to be published in the Humphrey-Hawkins Report to Congress. In this paper we use individual FOMC forecasts to assess whether these forecasts exhibit herding behavior, a pattern often found in private sector forecasts. While growth and unemployment forecast do not show herding behavior, the inflation forecasts show strong evidence of anti-herding, i.e. FOMC members intentionally scatter their forecasts around the consensus. Interestingly, anti-herding is more important for nonvoting members than for voters.
Using a large international data set we analyze whether business cycle forecasters tend to herd or anti-herd. Applying different measures of economic crises, we distinguish between normal economic circumstances and times of crises. We fnd evidence for anti-herding behavior for most industrial economies, i.e. forecasters eliberately stick out their neck with extreme forecasts for strategic reasons. For a set of emerging market economies, by contrast, we find evidence for herding behavior. We relate this finding to the high incidence of economic and financial crises in these countries. A test for herding behavior during economic crises confirms that forecasters tend to herd in times of high forecast uncertainty.
Central bank projections have gained considerable attention for monetary policy modeling. However, less is known about the nature of central bank projections. This letter explores the unbiasedness and rationality of more than 2; 000 growth and in ation projections published by 15 major central banks. The results indicate that central bank projections are in most cases rational and unbiased. Interestingly,
in ation projections are more biased than growth projections.
In this paper, we contrast more than 6,000 private sector forecasts to projections of the German council of economic experts (Sachverständigenrat). Although the forecasts are submitted simultaneously, we find that the council's real economy forecasts, i.e. their growth, unemployment and fiscal forecasts have a higher forecast accuracy compared to the private sector forecasts. We also document that private sector forecasters deliberately place their real economy forecasts away from the council's projection. This strategic forecasting behavior explains why the private sector performs worse than the council. This result is robust over time but splitting the private sector in different groups reveals that the forecasts of banks compared to research institutes deviate more from the council's forecast.
We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to analyze how forecaster build their expectations. Our findings point into the direction that the extrapolative as well as the regressive expectation formation hypothesis play a role. Standard measures of forecast accuracy reveal forecasters' underperformance relative to the random-walk benchmark. However, it seems that this result might be biased due to peso problems.
We used the oil-price forecasts of the 'Survey of Professional Forecasters' published by the European Central Bank to analyze whether oil-price forecasters herd or anti-herd. Oil-price forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) the consensus forecast. Based on a new empirical test developed by Bernhardt et al. (J. Financ. Econ. 80: 657-675, 2006), we found strong evidence of anti-herding among oil-price forecasters.
On the international consistency of short-term, medium-term, and long-term oil price forecasts
(2011)
We derive internal consistency restrictions on short-term, mediumterm, and long-term oil price forecasts. We then analyze whether oil price forecasts extracted from the Survey of Professional Forecasters conducted by the European Central Bank satisfy these internal consistency restrictions. We find that neither short-term forecasts are consistent with medium-term forecasts nor that medium-term forecasts are consistent with long-term forecasts. Using a more complex expectation formation structure featuring a distributed lag structure, however, we find stronger evidence of internal consistency of mediumterm forecasts with long-term forecasts.
This paper examines pricing differences across recognized and disclosed fair values. We build on prior literature by examining two theoretical causes of such differences: lower reliability of the disclosed information, and/or investors’ higher related information processing costs. We examine European real estate firms reporting under International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), which require that fair values for investment properties, our sample firms’ key operating asset, either be recognized on the balance sheet or disclosed in the footnotes. Consistent with prior research, we predict and find a lower association between equity prices and disclosed relative to recognized investment property fair values, reflecting a discount assigned to disclosed fair values. We then predict and find that this discount is mitigated by lower information processing costs (proxied via high analyst following), and some support that it is also mitigated by higher reliability (proxied via use of external appraisals). These latter results are documented using subsample analyses to test one attribute (either information processing costs or reliability) while holding the other constant. Overall, these findings are consistent with fair value reliability and information processing costs providing complementary explanations for observed pricing discounts assessed on disclosed accounting amounts.
This paper develops techniques of estimation and inference in a prototypical macroeconomic adaptive learning model with slowly decreasing gains. A sequential three-step procedure based on a `super-consistent' estimator of the rational expectations equilibrium parameter is proposed. It is shown that this procedure is asymptotically equivalent to first estimating the structural parameters jointly via ordinary least-squares (OLS) and then using the so-obtained estimates to form a plug-in estimator of the rational expectations equilibrium parameter. In spite of failing Grenander's conditions for well-behaved data, a limiting normal distribution of the estimators centered at the true parameters is derived. Although this distribution is singular, it can nevertheless be used to draw inferences about joint restrictions by applying results from Andrews (1987) to show that Wald-type statistics remain valid when equipped with a pseudo-inverse. Monte-Carlo evidence confirms the accuracy of the asymptotic theory for the finite sample behaviour of estimators and test statistics discussed here.
Desorptive capacity
(2004)
As competition is becoming increasingly knowledge-based, companies do not only have to develop the competence of managing knowledge internally but also need the competence of managing the acquisition and emission of knowledge in order to appropriately leverage its value. Regarding the external acquisition of knowledge, a consistent theoretical framework has been developed with the concept of absorptive capacity probably being the most important construct. In research into absorptive capacity, it is assumed either explicitly or by implication that the knowledge is applied internally. However, companies may also directly commercialize disembodied knowledge which is a growing phenomenon in practice. This trend is especially remarkable against the background of the imperfections of the markets for knowledge, which make such external commercialization of knowledge a difficult task. Accordingly, a company should build up an organizational capability to adequately manage the external knowledge commercialization process. Therefore, we develop the construct of desorptive capacity as a complementary concept to absorptive capacity in the area of external knowledge exploitation. The construct is defined, and it is shown that desorptive capacity is path-dependent. Moreover, it is highlighted how a firm may actively manage its desorptive capacity. Finally, the issue of operationalizing desorptive capacity is addressed, and implications of the theoretical analysis for research and practice are presented.
Companies may not only apply their knowiedge assets intemally, i.e. in own products and/or Services, they may also exploit the knowiedge assets extemally, i.e. commercialize them in disembodied form. While the extemal acquisition of knowiedge in general and the concept of absorptive capacity in particular have received great attention by researchers, the extemal exploitation of knowiedge has long been neglected despite its increasing importance in practice. To bridge the resulting gaps in prior research, the concept of desorptive capacity as a complement to absorptive capacity is proposed by taking a capability-based approach to the extemal knowiedge exploitation. Building on this theoretical concept, measures are developed, and data from a questionnaire-based study in 136 European Companies across industries is used to examine various hypotheses relating potential sources of desorptive capacity to the success of firms in extemally commercializing disembodied knowiedge. Thus, this work also constitutes the first large-scale study that intends to empirically identify success factors of extemally leveraging knowiedge assets. The findings of the study provide strong Support for the desorptive capacity concept, which helps to explain the discrepancies between the very positive view on the extemal knowiedge commercialization in most works in the literature and the considerable difficulties with managing these activities that are often perceived in practice.
Companies may realise all major knowledge management tasks, i.e. knowledge acquisition, accumulation and exploitation, not only internally but also externally. Therefore, we propose the integrate-or-relate decision in knowledge accumulation as a complement to the well-known make-or-buy and keep-or-sell decisions in knowledge acquisition and exploitation. A key factor for taking adequate decisions, for building up appropriate organisational capabilities and for realising a firm’s knowledge potentials are unbiased attitudes to the knowledge management tasks. While past research has focused on the NIH syndrome as a negative attitude to external knowledge acquisition, a more holistic view is adopted in this article by extending prior research on two dimensions. Firstly, we consider all major knowledge management tasks and do not limit our analysis to knowledge acquisition; secondly, we take into account that apart from too negative attitudes also overly positive attitudes to the external realisation of knowledge management tasks may exist. Building on prior research, we identify the following six syndromes: ‘not-invented-here’ vs. ‘buy-in’ in knowledge acquisition, ‘all-stored-here’ vs. ‘relate-out’ in knowledge accumulation and ‘only-use-here’ vs. ‘sell-out’ in knowledge exploitation. After briefly reviewing research into NIH and developing a knowledge management framework, the syndromes are defined, and possible antecedents, consequences and managerial actions are described.
Companies increasingly make use of the external knowledge exploitation, i.e. the commercialization of disembodied knowledge, although they often perceive considerable difficulties in managing the external commercialization tasks. These difficulties are partly due to the imperfections of the markets for knowledge, which, however, may be mastered by an adequate management as the examples of various well-known companies show. In combination, these facts point to the need of research into the external exploitation of knowledge. A thorough analysis of past research confirms this need and shows that the existing literature is highly fragmented. By integrating the main findings of the different research streams, we establish a detailed overview on the literature on external knowledge exploitation. The key characteristics and the main forms of externally commercializing knowledge are presented. Then, major imperfections in the markets for knowledge are examined, and the increasing importance of the topic in practice as well as primary reasons for this trend are described. Afterwards, major strategic and monetary objectives and the risks of commercializing disembodied knowledge are identified before turning to the management of the external knowledge exploitation, particularly regarding strategies, processes and structures. Apart from reviewing the literature, a research agenda, which describes promising paths for future research, is set up based on past research results and findings from other fields, particularly the internal knowledge exploitation and the external knowledge acquisition.
We consider an R&D contest between n firms in the presence of external spillovers. Our analysis focuses on the effects of these knowledge spillovers on joint venture activities between firms. In particular, we are interested in how different budget responsiblities within the research joint venture (RJV) affect profits of firms taking part in the joint venture and profits of their non-cooperating rival firms. Three arrangements for RJVs are analyzed: First, cooperation, in which the firms participating in the joint venture completely share the knowledge they created in the innovation process and each firm has a sovereign budget responsibility. Second, a collusive arrangement in which the participating firms not only share their knowledge but have joint budget responsibilities in the sense that they make all strategic choices cooperatively and maximize joint profits. Third, a hierarchical form, in which the cooperating firms establish a joint headquarter which has strategic budget responsibility in the sense that can strategically subsidize R&D expenditures of its member firms so as to maximize overall RJV profits. We show that the first two arrangements can be mimiced in the hierarchical structure and that a hierarchical structure is optimal if it completely subsidizes its members’ R&D activities. In this case all rival firms are driven out of the contest.
It is a well known result in the literature of principal-agent relationships that if the principal has the possibility to monitor the agent’s action at some cost, his monitoring probability is a decreasing function in the level of outcome. Moreover, the principal will reward the agent, if he is found to have complied with his interests. The purpose of this article is to show that these results depend crucially on the assumption that the principal can commit to his monitoring device at the time of contracting. In fact, we show that in a situation in which the principal is not able to commit to his investment in his monitoring technology, (1) the principal’s investigation intensity is increasing in the level of outcome and, (2) the agent’s reward is lower in the case investigation reveals the agent’s action than it is in the case in which investigation is uninformative.
The aim of this study is to measure total transaction costs as well as the cost components for six German investment management firms from August 1st until October 31st 2001. The investigation is based on a unique order-level data set that includes all relevant information (e.g. time of investment decision, order-release to the broker and trade execution). For computing transaction costs we use tick by tick price data for the 75 stocks of the Euro Stoxx 50- and Stoxx 50-universe.
Volume weighted, i.e. effectively paid, one way transaction costs sum up to 66.76 bp. Market pact is the highest cost component and amounts to 27.93 bp for volume weighted averages. According to a regression analysis market impact is driven by high volatilities and bid ask spreads; market momentum induces market impact to fall, indicating mean reversion of stock prices. High free float and market activity do not influence the market impact, but lead – just as high volatilities and bid ask spreads - to a reduction in trading aggressiveness. Trading duration decreases with high volatility and diminishing bid ask spreads. Overall, the results illustrate that to some extent German investment management firms trade strategically. Nevertheless, a further reduction in market impact, and therefore an increase in investment performance, seems to be possible, if traders pay greater attention on the liquidity indicators known already at order release.
The paper studies the effect of uncertainty in firm-speciffic tax avoidance on firm value. We first show in a clean surplus valuation model that expectations about future profitability interact with corporate tax avoidance. Two dimensions of corporate tax avoidance strategies matter for valuation: uncertainty and level of expected future tax rates. We confirm the importance of level and uncertainty of tax avoidance for forecasts of future tax rates using a small sample of analyst tax rate forecasts. Consistent with the model and the implications from analyst forecasts, we derive a tax signal-to-noise ratio based on historical tax information. In our sample of 2,820 firms, we show empirically that this tax signal-to-noise ratio amplifies the effect of pre-tax earnings on firm value. Pre-tax earnings have a stronger effect on firm value for firms with effective and persistent tax avoidance. Firms with volatile effective tax rates receive a discount on their earnings.
Empirical evidence suggests that there is substantial cross-firm variation in the extent of tax avoidance. However, this variation is not well understood. This paper provides a theoretical background for testing, and thus explaining, cross-firm differences in tax avoidance. We develop a formal model with two agents to analyze the incentives that lead firms to engage in tax avoidance. The tax avoidance decision is a function of moral hazard, tax-planning costs, and the potential to increase earnings. If the potential to increase earnings is low, the tax-planning decision is determined by moral-hazard problems. In contrast, when this potential is high, the tax-planning decision is mainly driven by taxplanning costs, such as reputational and political costs. One implication of our model is that moral hazard can (partly) explain why some firms do not engage in tax avoidance: Severe problems of moral hazard make tax avoidance less likely. Our model can be applied to test dierences in tax avoidance between different types of firms.
We study the importance of owner wages and dividends as alternative payout channels in privately held firms. Using data on all Swedish closely held corporations and their owner–managers over the period 2000–2009, we find that dividends comprise one-fourth of total payout to owner–managers. Dividends are used as a flexible payout channel. Wages are the preferred payout channel and are rather sticky. Choice of payout channel and level of payout are affected by dividend and wage taxation. Consistent with the difference in flexibility across payout channels, shareholder taxes have a stronger impact on dividends than on wages.
This paper contrasts the individual capital gains realization behavior between progressive and proportional tax regimes. Using a longitudinal panel of over 288,000 individuals in Sweden, I exploit the 1991 tax reform in Sweden that changed progressive capital gains tax rates ranging from 12% to 80% to a proportional tax rate of 30%. Using the proportional tax system to control for non-tax reasons to realize capital gains, I show that individuals are highly responsive to capital gains tax incentives created by temporary income changes under a progressive capital gains tax. More specifically, I find that individuals with temporary negative (positive) income changes sell (hold) shares that they would hold (sell) in the absence of temporary tax incentives. Further, I show that high-income individuals are more tax sensitive than low-income individuals. This result indicates that low-income individuals facing temporary negative income changes could trade predominantly for non-tax reasons.
This paper studies the cross-base tax elasticity of capital gains realizations to labor income taxes when capital gains are taxed at a separate proportional tax rate. Using a longitudinal panel of over 265,000 individuals in Sweden, this paper shows in a regression kink design that labor income taxes affect capital gains at the extensive and intensive margins. An increase in the marginal labor income tax rate increases the likelihood of realizing capital gains and the amount of realized capital gains. One implication of this result is that the excess burden of labor income taxation is affected by cross-base tax elasticities.
This paper analyzes heterogeneity in capital gains tax elasticities across individuals. Using panel data of over 260,000 individuals, I find that the sensitivity of capital gains to taxes is decreasing over the individual life cycle. Younger individuals respond more strongly to changes in capital gains taxes than older individuals. An increase in age of 18 years decreases the lock-in effect of capital gains taxes by approximately 10%.
We analyze the effects of limited feedback on beliefs and contributions in a repeated public goods game setting. In a first experiment, we test whether exogenously determined feedback about a good example (i.e., the maximum contribution in a period) in contrast to a bad example (i.e., the minimum contribution in a period) induces higher contributions. We find that when the type of feedback is not transparent to the group members, good examples boost cooperation while bad examples hamper it. There is no difference when the type of feedback is transparent. In a second experiment, feedback is endogenously chosen by a group leader. The results show that a large majority of the group leaders count on the positive effect of providing a good example. This is true regardless whether they choose the feedback type to be transparent or non-transparent. Half of the group leaders make the type of feedback transparent. With endogenously chosen feedback about good examples no difference in contributions can be observed among transparent and non-transparent feedback selection. In both experiments feedback shapes subjects’ beliefs. With exogenously chosen feedback, transparent feedback tends to reduce beliefs when good examples are provided as feedback and tends to increase beliefs in when bad examples are provided as feedback compared to the respective non-transparent cases. Our results shed new light on the design of feedback rovision in public goods settings.
A fully unbundled, regulated network firm of unknown efficiency level can undertake unobservable effort to increase the likelihood of low downstream prices, e.g., by facilitating downstream competition. To incentivize such effort, the regulator can use an incentive scheme paying transfers to the firm contingent on realized downstream prices. Alternatively, the regulator can force the firm to sell the following forward contracts: the firm pays the downstream price to the owners of a contract, but receives the expected value of the contracts when selling them to a competitive financial market. We compare the two regulatory tools with respect to regulatory capture: if the regulator can be bribed to suppress information on the underlying state of the world (the basic probability of high downstream prices, or the type of the firm), optimal regulation uses forward contracts only.
The economic analysis of trade-secret protection has traditionally focused on the interests of companies to conceal information from competitors in order to gain a competitive advantage through trade-secret law. This has neglected cases in which the interest is not in concealing information from competitors, but from trading partners. We investigate the social efficiency effects of trade-secret protection in such cases. Many results from economic theory state that asymmetric information (and therefore also its legal protection) is socially undesirable since it leads to inefficient trade. At the same time, protecting private information might create incentives for socially desirable investments. We model this trade-off in a simple buyer-seller model and
nd that, indeed, trade-secret protection has ambiguous welfare effects. However, a simple, informationally undemanding rule, conditioning the applicability of legal protection on a minimum investment by the informed party to conceal the information, helps to apply trade-secret protection only when it increases welfare. This rationalizes important features of current legal practice.
Linear demand formulations for price competition in horizontally differentiated products are sometimes used to compare situations where additional varieties become available, e.g. due to market entry of new firms. We derive a consistent demand system to analyze such situations and highlight potential problems that can arise from an inconsistent approach.
The paper analyzes firms' expansion paths within and across industries and specifically different patterns along these paths. Using a procedure previously applied in statistical process control and employing longitudinal data on the expansion of 91 German firms, we analyzed firms' clustering behavior regarding different characteristics. Results reveal that expansion is a heterogeneous process: the clustering behavior along the expansion path does not only differ between firms, but also within one firm regarding different characteristics of its expansion path.
Changes in the regulatory framework allow German business schools to select an important part of their students by themselves for the first time through entrance exams. We analyze if the students participating in these entrance exams differ from average first-year business students and which factors influence their choice of a business school. A separate analysis for a cluster of very highly motivated students reveals that for these students a short study time and a practical Orientation are of utmost importance as decision criteria. We derive suggestions for German business schools that want to target this specific segment of students.
Research on strategic agenda building has traditionally emphasized individual agency, thereby neglecting organizational context. Developing a contextual model of strategic agenda building, we address this limitation. Based on the evolutionary framework we show that an organization’s core elements, that is, strategy, culture, structure and top management team, heavily influence what issues are considered in organizational agenda building processes. Moreover, the strategic agenda building process, apart from the role of capabilities and cognition, provides an alternative explanation for path dependency.
Diversification research
(2006)
The purpose of this paper is to determine whether and how e-leaming technologies and e-leaming programs should be used in order to support knowledge management in multinational companies. These questions are important for two reasons. Firstly, so far only a few papers discuss the relationship between knowledge management and e-learning. Secondly, e-leaming initiatives in multinational companies are of limited success. The paper relates requirements of different types of knowledge with the characteristics of e-leaming technologies and e-leaming programs. Based on this, the paper shows how multinational companies should use e-leaming technologies and e-leaming programs. Different roles of corporate headquarters are discussed in this context.