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Basiswissen RDA
(2017)
Hosting the Olympics or not
(2017)
Dancing with the dragon
(2017)
This dissertation assesses investment decisions in container shipping. To understand the current state of the industry, key characteristics and challenges, such as overcapacity, eroding margins due to low freight rates, long investment lead times, and frequent changes in alliance structure are introduced.
The nature of the industry motivates the application of real options, hence a real options investment model in oligopolistic competition is presented. An analytic solution in continuous time as well as a dynamic programming solution in discrete time are derived. The model takes into account an endogenous price function, fuel-efficient investment, endogenous lead times, and endogenous price formation in the secondary vessel market. This allows to study the impact of competitive intensity, number of players, volatility, fuel-efficiency, lead time, and variable cost on optimal capacity. An investigation of optimal investment policies shows that strategic action increases firm value and strategic alliances might help alleviate some of the industry’s challenges.
Since the container shipping market is characterized by frequent alliance changes, the performance of the real options model in the context of a cooperative shipping game is assessed. Extending the coalition structure value concept it can be shown that, compared with discounted cash flow, the real options trigger performs better, especially in light of high competitive intensity and freight rate volatility while not exhibiting substantial disadvantages in other settings. A further assessment of a number of drivers for alliance instability finds that alliance complexity cost, freight rate volatility, and competitive intensity increase alliance changes.
To verify the investment approach, a characterization of the container freight rate is provided with an empirical Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. It can be observed that the freight rate exhibits a negative relationship with capacity deployment; hence the oligopoly price function is confirmed. Based on the freight rate characterization, a back testing of the real options investment approach is provided. It shows that if players had applied the presented approach, capacities would have decreased and rates improved. A number of limitations of the real options approach are identified,
i.e. substantial impact of volatility expectation, potentially induced cyclicality from trigger approaches, and the timing impact of investment and divestment lead times.
The implications of this research are that strategic action in the container shipping industry is worthwhile and understanding the market specifics (such as competitive intensity, volatility, and freight rate characterization) is very important. Container carriers should add a real options approach to their investment toolkit and keep an eye on potential overcapacity. Finally, entering strategic alliances is suggested, but complexity should be avoided.
In this thesis, we(1) use operations research methods to provide insights into three areas associated with health care operations management. In Chapter 2, we use a discreteevent supply chain simulation to asses if coordination among partners is beneficial in a supply chain with the characteristics of the German pharmaceutical market. We find that the greatest cost savings and service levels could be achieved through a highly integrated collaboration although most of its impact could already be achieved through sharing point-of-sales demand information. Results suggest that coordination is most beneficial in situations where product shelf life is short and demand variation is high.
In Chapter 3 we consider quality-of-life maximizing sequences of prophylactic surgeries for female carriers of a BRCA1/2 genetic mutation, who face a significantly elevated breast and ovarian cancer risk. Using a Markov Decision Process model, we determine the optimal surgery sequence that maximizes the carrier’s expected lifetime qualityadjusted life years (QALYs). Baseline results demonstrate that a QALY-maximizing sequence recommends a bilateral mastectomy between ages 30 and 60 and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy after age 40 for BRCA1 carriers. Surgeries are recommended later for BRCA2 carriers, as their cancer risk is lower. The model’s structural properties show that when one surgery has already been completed, there exists an optimal control limit after which performing the other surgery is always QALY-maximizing.
In Chapter 4, we develop a two-stage model for optimizing when and where to assign Ebola treatment unit (ETU) beds—across geographic regions—during an infectious disease outbreak’s early phase. The first stage includes a dynamic transmission model that forecasts occurrence of new cases at the regional level, thus capturing connectivity among regions; in this stage we introduce a coefficient for behavioral adaptation to changing epidemic conditions. The second stage includes two approaches to efficiently allocate intervention resources across affected regions. Such an allocation could have prevented up to 3,434 infections over an 18-week period during the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, a 58% improvement compared with the actual allocation.
(1) In Chapter 2, 3, and 4, the term ’we’ refers to the authors of Nohdurft & Spinler (2016), Nohdurft et al. (2016a), and Nohdurft et al. (2016b), respectively.
In der Studie ermitteln wir die Gesamtkosten bei der Anlage in Zertifikate auf Basis von 24.830 Anlagezertifikaten, die von den Mitgliedern des DDV im ersten Halbjahr 2016 emittiert wurden und im Monat nach Emission ein investiertes Volumen von insgesamt 8,169 Mrd. € aufwiesen. Die Gesamtkosten aus Erwarteter Emittentenmarge, Vertriebsprovisionen und Ausgabeaufschlägen belaufen sich auf 71,4 Basispunkte (BP) bzw. 0,714 % pro Laufzeitjahr. Die durchschnittliche Laufzeit der Produkte beträgt 4,8 Jahre. Von den Gesamtkosten von 71,4 BP entfallen 30,3 BP auf die Erwartete Emittentenmarge, 31,6 BP auf die Vertriebsprovisionen und 9,5 BP auf die Ausgabeaufschläge. Die Erwartete Emittentenmarge geht an die Emittenten als Vergütung für die Strukturierung, das Market Making und die Abwicklung und enthält auch den Gewinn des Emittenten. Dagegen werden mit den Vertriebsprovisionen und Ausgabeaufschlägen die Leistungen der Vertriebseinheiten und die Anlageberatung vergütet. Die in diesen Kosten nicht enthaltenen Absicherungskosten (Transaktionskosten für den Einkauf der Produktkomponenten) belaufen sich nach unserer Schätzung auf etwa 30 BP pro Laufzeitjahr. Die Gesamtkosten der Zertifikateanlage einschließlich
der Absicherungskosten betragen somit pro Laufzeitjahr etwa 1 %. Damit dürften diese über den Kosten von Anlagen in Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) auf große Indizes, aber deutlich unter den Kosten von aktiv verwalteten Investmentfonds liegen. Insgesamt werten wir diese aus unserer Sicht geringen Kosten der Zertifikateanlage als Beleg dafür, dass eine hohe Kostentransparenz zu mehr Wettbewerb und damit auch zu effizienten Preisstrukturen führt. Diese hohe Kostentransparenz, die ab 2018 vom Regulator gemäß PRIIPs und MiFID II für alle wichtigen Finanzprodukte gefordert wird, ist für den deutschen Zertifikatemarkt seit Jahren kennzeichnend.