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2020 industry insights
(2020)
Customer-centricity, digital development and sustainability are three core aspects of cross-industry culture that will continue to be crucial as companies contend with current challenges and look ahead to longer-term strategic planning beyond COVID-19. Technological advancements, new digitally native brands and changing consumer expectations are driving uncertainty and increased competition, regardless of the industry. By understanding what cross-industry peers are focusing on for future investments and long-term strategies, businesses can stay ahead of change, embrace new opportunities to improve the customer experience and meet sustainability goals to maintain their competitive edge.
We examine the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economic decline expected in Germany in 2020. The magnitude of the economic slump that will occur in 2020 depends on the extent of the slump during the shutdown, on the point in time, at which a significant easing of shutdown occurs, and on the length of adjustment process towards the structures that prevailed before the pandemic. We derive several scenarios and find that the shutdown will only remain in the single-digit percentage range if we apply very optimistic assumptions about the extent of the initial decline in GDP during the shutdown and the speed of adjustment after opening up of the economy. However, assuming that the economic crisis cannot end before the medical crisis ends, which medical experts project not to happen before the end of 2020, such optimistic assumptions do not appear realistic. Hence, we find it more likely that the percentage decline of GDP in Germany will be two-digit in 2020. Our findings are in contrast to the growth projections recently issued by the German Council of Economic Experts or by the Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy of Germany.