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The constant introduction of new products is of great importance for the long-term financial success of companies. Newly launched products in consumer goods and services markets show high failure rates, often reaching 50%. In order to reduce flop rates, companies can integrate innovative and knowledgeable customers, so called 'lead users', into the new product development process. However, the detection of such lead users is difficult, especially in consumer goods markets with very large customer bases. A new and potentially valuable approach for the identification of lead users are virtual stock markets, which have been proposed and applied for political and business forecasting, but not for expert identification yet. The goal of this paper is to analyze theoretically and empirically the feasibility of virtual stock markets for lead user identification. We find in our empirical study that virtual stock markets are an effective instrument to identify lead users in consumer goods markets. Using the proposed method, companies operating in these markets can identify lead users more easily and integrate them into new product development projects. Thus, they can improve the innovation processes and reduce new product flop rates.
Web-based interaction between customers and producers offer new promising ways of bringing customers into the company right to where the value creation begins - in new product development (NPD). Despite the high potential of virtual customer integration (VCI), practical application is limited. The decision of initial utilization of VCI depends on the manager’s predisposition - favorable or unfavorable -towards VCI; usually, it is the responsibility of managers and executives belonging to the development, marketing or innovation departments to sanction such a decision. To get a deeper understanding of antecedents leading to the application of VCI, further information is needed. In this paper, the authors shed light on the various factors affecting managerial intention to apply virtual customer integration. The theory of planned behavior (TPB) provides a basis for developing a research model explaining the relation between managers’ cognition, attitude, social norms, perceived behavioral control and their intention to adopt VCI. The initial results of our empirical study, wherein we interviewed 94 managers within the consumer goods and services field, show that the TPB accounts for 66 percent of the variance in the managers’ intention to apply VCI. Furthermore, the study reveals that social norms and perceived behavioral control are the main factors which influence managerial decision to apply VCI. This contrasts with the widely-held theory that an individual's attitude is the most significant factor of influence.