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This paper examines the recession probabilities for the Eurozone along four different dimensions: First, we identify the best performing indicators for a recession within the next 12 months based on 43 underlying single variables and their different transformations in a benchmark model. We find that a modified version of the yield curve incorporating the shadow interest rate removes the downward rigidity of the front-leg and restores part of the informational content of the term spread at the zero lower bound. However, the best performing single indicator of the benchmark model is Real M1 followed by the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), the investment grade corporate bond spread and the Terms of Trade. Second, the paper establishes three submodels to increase the lead-time and the stability of recession models: (i) Monetary transmission channels via principal component analysis; (ii) Bivariate regressions to identify paramount combinations; (iii) Unstable surges vis-à-vis the Hodrick-Prescott trend to detect animal spirits and hawkish mistakes. Third, the analysis is extended over various forecasting horizons (6m, 18m and 24m). Fourth, the results are analyzed from the perspective of risk-affine and risk-averse investors.
Gone with the windfall
(2018)
Due to the debate about the generosity of LTC insurance benefits the German government decided to increase benefits and widen the circle of LTC beneficiaries with the Second LTC Strengthening Act. In this paper, we evaluate the long-term implications of this recent reform for the German LTC insurance scheme. Using the framework of generational accounting we show that the reform has led to a widening of the short-term gap between revenues and expenditure and that the LTC insurance is not sustainably financed, neither pre- nor post-reform. By the early 2020s there will be fiscal pressure for further reforms. From an intergenerational perspective, the reform can be seen as a windfall to current beneficiaries increasing the intergenerational redistribution through the pay-as-you-go system.
E.ON SE intends to acquire Innogy SE from its competitor RWE AG based on a comprehensive exchange of business activities. The acquisition was announced in the first quarter of 2018 and is expected to be finalized late 2019. Next key milestones are the closing of a public takeover offer to minority shareholders and the approval of relevant antitrust and regulatory authorities. On the one hand, the merger will directly affect existing structures in the German energy market, helping both companies, E.ON and RWE, to significantly strengthen their respective core businesses. On the other hand, however, potential disadvantaged parties include Innogy itself, employees, municipalities and end customers.
Deal Logic Linde / Praxair
(2018)
Currently in news for the last moment approval from the Federal Trade Commission to make the Praxair and Linde merger a reality, the development of the deal has not been short of hurdles. Initially, Praxair-Linde faced resistance from the European Union under the accusation that the merger would hinder competition. Later, both companies had to undertake multiple selling transactions to meet the anti-trust requirements of the countries in which they operated. Praxair and Linde were finally able to meet the requirements in early November for a successful completion of the merger.
Linde and Praxair, the world’s no. 2 and no. 3 industrial gas suppliers respectively, were in the spotlight due to the size of the merger and the impact that it would have on the gas industry, almost making them a monopoly firm.
In the transformation driven by technology and stream-video challenges, media giants have taken acquisition strategies to uphold their current status and seek for vertical business expansion via entering content creation area. AT&T, the telecom and media giant, initiated an acquisition of Time Warner in October 2016 at a bid of USD 85bn, which was considered as the biggest M&A deal that year worldwide. But the process was blocked mainly by the US Department of Justice (DOJ) and stagnant for nearly 2 years. In June 2018, the vertical merger was approved by the U.S. District Judge and completed on 14.06.2018. Concerns about legitimate regulation should be largely taken into account of the evaluation of success of acquisitions.
Risiko in Firma und Familie
(2018)
This paper develops techniques of estimation and inference in a prototypical macroeconomic adaptive learning model with slowly decreasing gains. A sequential three-step procedure based on a `super-consistent' estimator of the rational expectations equilibrium parameter is proposed. It is shown that this procedure is asymptotically equivalent to first estimating the structural parameters jointly via ordinary least-squares (OLS) and then using the so-obtained estimates to form a plug-in estimator of the rational expectations equilibrium parameter. In spite of failing Grenander's conditions for well-behaved data, a limiting normal distribution of the estimators centered at the true parameters is derived. Although this distribution is singular, it can nevertheless be used to draw inferences about joint restrictions by applying results from Andrews (1987) to show that Wald-type statistics remain valid when equipped with a pseudo-inverse. Monte-Carlo evidence confirms the accuracy of the asymptotic theory for the finite sample behaviour of estimators and test statistics discussed here.
Workshop Copyright
(2018)
This dissertation integrates three papers on risk management in complex new product development projects (NPD) with an integrated perspective on the automotive industry. It seeks to provide a comprehensive access to the topic by highlighting the most relevant risk management aspects in NPD – processes and methods (chapter 2), organization and coordination (chapter 3) as well as culture and strategy (chapter 4).
The focus of chapter 2 lies on the identification and assessment of risks as the initial and most critical risk management steps. It illustrates the application of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method as an established multi-criteria decision analysis method to create transparency on the overall risk position of a selected highly complex NPD in the automotive industry. Chapter 2 confirms the AHP method as a suitable approach for stronger preventive risk management in complex NPD with stakeholders with conflicting functional perspectives. This sets the stage for chapter 3 and a subsequent consideration of organization and coordination.
Chapter 3 considers an issue of organization and coordination in complex NPD that is mainly based on the fact that the involved stakeholders have individual targets and rely on concurrent processes. The selected automotive industry example illustrates the resulting managerial challenge of balancing the overall NPD requirements such as product characteristics and development lead time (system perspective) and the targets of single stakeholders in NPD (individual perspective). The NK model as an important setting for search builds the methodical basis to solve this issue and results in optimized organizational and coordination setups.
The implications on risk management in complex NPD as a result of newly emerging NPD types in the automotive industry are subject to chapter 4. These implications are in line with profound industry changes that include changes in the requirements of customers and markets. Chapter 4 uses complexity theory and deploys the lens of complex adaptive systems (CAS) to NPD to outline the emerging NPD types and their implications on risk framing activities. An extended risk framework is derived as basis that addresses the cultural and strategic shift in the automotive industry with regard to managing risk in emerging NPD types.
We analyze the effects of limited feedback on beliefs and contributions in a repeated public goods game setting. In a first experiment, we test whether exogenously determined feedback about a good example (i.e., the maximum contribution in a period) in contrast to a bad example (i.e., the minimum contribution in a period) induces higher contributions. We find that when the type of feedback is not transparent to the group members, good examples boost cooperation while bad examples hamper it. There is no difference when the type of feedback is transparent. In a second experiment, feedback is endogenously chosen by a group leader. The results show that a large majority of the group leaders count on the positive effect of providing a good example. This is true regardless whether they choose the feedback type to be transparent or non-transparent. Half of the group leaders make the type of feedback transparent. With endogenously chosen feedback about good examples no difference in contributions can be observed among transparent and non-transparent feedback selection. In both experiments feedback shapes subjects’ beliefs. With exogenously chosen feedback, transparent feedback tends to reduce beliefs when good examples are provided as feedback and tends to increase beliefs in when bad examples are provided as feedback compared to the respective non-transparent cases. Our results shed new light on the design of feedback rovision in public goods settings.
This paper employs event study methods to evaluate the effects of ECB’s nonstandard monetary policy program announcements on 10-year government bond yields of euro area member states. It covers data from 11 euro area countries from January 1, 2007 to August 31, 2017 and distinguishes between the more solvent countries (Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands) and the less solvent ones (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain). The paper makes three contributions to the literature. First, it is the first paper to reveal that measurable effects of announcements arise with a one-day delay meaning that government bond markets take some time to react to ECB announcements. Second, it quantifies the country-specific extent of yield reduction which seems inversely related to the solvency rating of the corresponding countries. The reduction of the spread between both groups in response to an event is due to a stronger decrease in the less solvent group. Third, this result is confirmed by letting the announcement variable interact with the spread level, which is an innovation in this strand of literature. By employing different data as control variables, it turns out that the results are robust for a given event set.