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Jahresbericht
(2011)
Lehrstuhlbericht
(2011)
Activity report
(2011)
Lehrstuhlbericht
(2011)
Tätigkeitsbericht
(2011)
Tätigkeitsbericht
(2011)
Lehrstuhlbericht
(2011)
Lehrstuhlbericht
(2011)
We use data from the Consensus Economics Forecast Poll to analyze how current account forecasters form expectations. Our results suggest that forecasts do not satisfy traditional unbiasedness and orthogonality criteria for forecast rationality. In addition, we find anti-herding behavior among forecasters for the Euro area and G7 countries. We also show that the cross-sectional heterogeneity in anti-herding is associated with cross-sectional heterogeneity in forecast accuracy. More specifically, we find some evidence indicating that forecasters who tend to herd provide more accurate forecasts than their colleagues who follow an anti-herding strategy.
On the international consistency of short-term, medium-term, and long-term oil price forecasts
(2011)
We derive internal consistency restrictions on short-term, mediumterm, and long-term oil price forecasts. We then analyze whether oil price forecasts extracted from the Survey of Professional Forecasters conducted by the European Central Bank satisfy these internal consistency restrictions. We find that neither short-term forecasts are consistent with medium-term forecasts nor that medium-term forecasts are consistent with long-term forecasts. Using a more complex expectation formation structure featuring a distributed lag structure, however, we find stronger evidence of internal consistency of mediumterm forecasts with long-term forecasts.
Do FOMC members herd?
(2011)
Twice a year FOMC members submit forecasts for growth, unemployment and inflation to be published in the Humphrey-Hawkins Report to Congress. In this paper we use individual FOMC forecasts to assess whether these forecasts exhibit herding behavior, a pattern often found in private sector forecasts. While growth and unemployment forecast do not show herding behavior, the inflation forecasts show strong evidence of anti-herding, i.e. FOMC members intentionally scatter their forecasts around the consensus. Interestingly, anti-herding is more important for nonvoting members than for voters.
In this paper, we contrast more than 6,000 private sector forecasts to projections of the German council of economic experts (Sachverständigenrat). Although the forecasts are submitted simultaneously, we find that the council's real economy forecasts, i.e. their growth, unemployment and fiscal forecasts have a higher forecast accuracy compared to the private sector forecasts. We also document that private sector forecasters deliberately place their real economy forecasts away from the council's projection. This strategic forecasting behavior explains why the private sector performs worse than the council. This result is robust over time but splitting the private sector in different groups reveals that the forecasts of banks compared to research institutes deviate more from the council's forecast.
Central bank projections have gained considerable attention for monetary policy modeling. However, less is known about the nature of central bank projections. This letter explores the unbiasedness and rationality of more than 2; 000 growth and in ation projections published by 15 major central banks. The results indicate that central bank projections are in most cases rational and unbiased. Interestingly,
in ation projections are more biased than growth projections.
Geschäftsbericht 2010/2011
(2011)
Lehrstuhlbericht
(2011)
Lehrstuhlbericht
(2011)
Lehrstuhlbericht
(2011)
Activity report
(2011)
Activity report
(2011)
Activity report
(2011)
IMC Report
(2011)
Lehrstuhlbericht
(2011)
Lehrstuhlbericht
(2011)
Activity report
(2011)
Activity report
(2011)
Lehrstuhlbericht
(2011)
Activity report
(2011)
Past research has identified that innovation portfolio management is about efficiently managing the right innovation portfolio projects. However, the relevant literature has fairly unobserved decision processes which help to maximize the value of the entire innovation portfolio. This work analyzed decision procedures within the context of innovation portfolio management; especially, the project go/stop-decision processes. Founded on a theoretical basis two decision making experiments were developed and a distinct set of hypotheses by two large-scale experimental studies were tested.
The present work is aimed at making a valuable contribution to conceptual research about decision making in the context of innovation portfolio management, and the experimental based research field. The results of these studies help to get a detailed understanding of the decision making processes and may lead to a better understanding of project management within an innovation portfolio by firms and by decision makers in general.
Open-ended property funds
(2011)
A bibliometric analysis of research published in the major accounting journals from 1990-2007
(2011)
Élite role and context
(2011)
Die vorliegende Arbeit beschäftigt sich damit, wie die Wissensnutzung in verteilten Teams gefördert werden kann. Wissen ist heutzutage eine der wichtigsten Ressourcen, über die Unternehmen verfügen und die ihnen entscheidende Wettbewerbsvorteile liefern kann. Viele Unternehmen sind heute multinationale Organisationen mit Standorten auf verschiedenen Kontinenten. Um das Wissen der Mitarbeiter1dieser verschiedenen Standorte zu nutzen, arbeiten Teams standortübergreifend in sogenannten virtuellen oder verteilten Teams zusammen.
Aufgrund der Verteiltheit der Teams ergeben sich Herausforderungen für die Zusammenarbeit der Mitglieder. Klassische Führungsansätze erweisen sich aufgrund der räumlichen und zeitlichen Distanz als wenig geeignet in einem solchen Kontext. Das Konzept der geteilten Führung, also die Übernahme von Führungsverantwortung durch die Teammitglieder selbst, hilft, das in einem Team vorhandene Wissen effektiv zum Einsatz zu bringen.
Verteilte Teams greifen zur Kommunikation auf verschiedene Medien zurück, die einen unterschiedlichen Grad an Reichhaltigkeit bereitstellen. Dabei besteht einerseits ein Zusammenhang zwischen der Wahl der Kommunikationsmedien und dem Grad an geteilter Führung in einem Team, andererseits kann die Verwendung reichhaltiger Kommunikationsmedien die Wissensnutzung in einem Team fördern. Die Wahl der Kommunikationsmedien kann durch das Definieren von Kommunikationsnormen beeinflusst werden. Auch auf die Effektivität der Wissensnutzung hat das Aufstellen von Regeln zur Kommunikation und Information innerhalb eines Teams positive Auswirkungen.
Häufig spielen kulturelle Unterschiede bei der Betrachtung von verteilten Teams eine Rolle, da die Teams aufgrund der standortübergreifenden Zusammenarbeit auch Länder- und Kulturgrenzen überschreiten. Dabei spielen die kulturellen Orientierungen der Teammitglieder eine Rolle, die kulturelle Heterogenität und die kulturellen Unterschiede zwischen den Mitgliedern. Alle Faktoren können einen Einfluss auf das Auftreten von geteilter Führung in einem verteilten Team haben.
Für die Studie, die dieser Arbeit zugrunde liegt, wurden die Mitglieder und Leiter von 96 Innovationsteams aus 36 Unternehmen – vornehmlich aus der Softwarebranche – befragt. Insgesamt beantworteten 426 Teammitglieder und –leiter die Fragebögen zu den Themen Führung und Zusammenarbeit in ihren Teams.
Diese Arbeit zeigt, welche Einflüsse die unterschiedlichen Konzeptualisierungen von Kultur sowie verschiedene kulturelle Orientierungen auf das Auftreten von geteilter Führung in einem Team haben. Darüber hinaus wird der Zusammenhang zwischen der Reichhaltigkeit der Kommunikation in einem Team und dem Prozess der geteilten Führung, der Definition von Kommunikationsnormen und der Nutzung des vorhandenen Wissens untersucht. Die Wichtigkeit von geteilter Führung und Kommunikationsnormen für einen funktionierenden Informationsaustausch und die Entwicklung von Metawissen wird durch die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit unterstrichen.
This dissertation examines the role tangible resources play in innovation projects. Specifically, it is distinguished between two mindsets when it comes to tangible resource constraints in innovation projects. One mindset regarding the relationship between tangible resources and innovation project performance can be described best as “resource driven”, meaning that innovation project performance is strongly linked to the presence of adequate tangible resource input. Counter-intuitively, a vast number of case examples suggest the exact opposite, though. The underlying “less is more” mindset suggests that innovation project performance could also be achieved because (not despite) of constrained tangible resources. Those views reflect the two extremes of the continuous variable “tangible resource orientation” which expresses the perceived dependency on tangible resources in order to achieve a high level of performance in innovation projects.
Since conceptual and empirical evidence on the antecedents and consequences of varying degrees of tangible resource adequacy in extant literature is inconclusive, this dissertation aims at disentangling the ambiguous tangible resources-innovation project performance relationship. The arguments I put forward in this dissertation are based on conceptual evidence as a result of synthesizing literature from neighboring research fields like cognitive psychology, entrepreneurship, and corporate strategy pointing to mechanisms which cause material resource constraints to facilitate creative and innovative performance in innovation projects. These literature streams are then brought together within the framework of the resource based view (RBV) of the firm. The empirical analyses to test the hypothesized relationships are based on a sample consisting of 121 innovation project teams from the electronics industry.
The results presented in this dissertation show that the ambiguity of the relationship between tangible resources and innovation project performance observed in the literature may be a result of moderating variables that determine the direction and strength of tangible resources’ influence on innovation project performance. Specifically, the analyses reveal an interaction effect in that perceptions of material resource adequacy indeed may entail diverging effects on innovation project outcomes in family and non-family businesses, depending on differences in these firms’ organizational culture regarding the orientation toward material resources. In particular, innovation projects in non-family firms do Extended summary III significantly better when being provided with more adequate material resources, while in family firms innovation projects do not show significant differences in conditions of more or less adequate tangible resources and are shown to perform better (relative to those in nonfamily firms) under conditions of perceived material resource inadequacy.
Moreover the results of this dissertation point to the influence of socio-cognitive factors on a team’s evaluation of material resource adequacy. These socio-cognitive influences are further shown to root both on innovation project team attributes and capabilities, as well as on characteristics of organizational culture. Specifically, regarding team-level factors, it is found that innovation project team members’ perception of material resource adequacy is influenced by a team’s action repertoire, the belief of a team being able to accomplish a task, and the team task’s work volume. Regarding organizational-level factors, this research reveals that innovation project teams in family firms perceived their material resource provisions generally as being more adequate. Further, this relationship is shown to be mediated by an organization’s cultural characteristic of material resource orientation, representing an important link that transmits family influence to innovation project teams’ perceptions of material resource adequacy.
Finally, the results reveal that depending on which outcome dimension is operationalized as the main project focus, i.e., whether the quality or innovativeness of the developed products is used as outcome measure, converse results may emerge. Specifically, it is found that perceptions of material resource adequacy have a positive effect on new product quality and a negative effect on new product novelty. In a similar vein, relative team size is shown to be negatively related with new product novelty while showing a positive relationship with new product quality. Additionally, relative team size is also found to have a positive relationship with project efficiency.
From these findings, key implications for the management of innovation projects are derived in order to ensure the effectiveness of companies’ investments in R&D, showing that adequate tangible resources per se do not have a direct effect (neither positive nor negative) on innovation project performance. Rather, the role of tangible resources in innovation projects is contingent upon how adequate tangible resources are perceived to be, on certain contingency variables, and on the outcome dimension focused on. Thus, sometimes less may indeed turn out to be more and this thesis points to ways how to tap this potential.