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Do private sector forecasters desire to deviate from the german council of economic experts?

  • In this paper, we contrast more than 6,000 private sector forecasts to projections of the German council of economic experts (Sachverständigenrat). Although the forecasts are submitted simultaneously, we find that the council's real economy forecasts, i.e. their growth, unemployment and fiscal forecasts have a higher forecast accuracy compared to the private sector forecasts. We also document that private sector forecasters deliberately place their real economy forecasts away from the council's projection. This strategic forecasting behavior explains why the private sector performs worse than the council. This result is robust over time but splitting the private sector in different groups reveals that the forecasts of banks compared to research institutes deviate more from the council's forecast.

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Verfasserangaben:Jan-Christoph Rülke
URN:urn:nbn:de:hbz:992-opus4-4203
Schriftenreihe (Bandnummer):WHU – Working Paper Series in Economics (WP 11/04)
Verlag:WHU – Otto Beisheim School of Management
Verlagsort:Vallendar
Dokumentart:Arbeitspapier
Sprache:Englisch
Datum der Veröffentlichung (online):15.06.2017
Veröffentlichende Institution:WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management
Datum der Freischaltung:15.06.2017
Freies Schlagwort / Tag:Herdentrieb; Privatwirtschaftliche Prognostiker; Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung
German Council of Economic Experts; Herding; Private sector forecasters
Jahrgang:2011
Ausgabe / Heft:WP 11/04
Seitenzahl:20
Institute:WHU Economics Group / Chair of Monetary Economics
JEL-Klassifikation:C Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / C3 Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models / C33 Models with Panel Data
D Microeconomics / D8 Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty / D84 Expectations; Speculations
E Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / E3 Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles / E37 Forecasting and Simulation
Lizenz (Deutsch):Copyright for this publication