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Expectations, Taylor rules, and credibility

  • This paper analyzes the expectation formation process in Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland. We use the Consensus Economic Forecast poll and show that the forecasts are consistent with Taylor-type rules for three countries but not for Norway. This can be attributed to Norway's long period of an exchange rate targetor. Additionally, we provide evidence that the expected long-term inflation rate is consistent with both the actual average in ation rate and the inflation target for all countries. This implies that the professional forecasters understand the different monetary policy strategies among the four countries indicating that all central banks can be regarded as highly credible.

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Metadaten
Author:Ralf Fendel, Michael Frenkel, Jan-Christoph Rülke
URN:urn:nbn:de:hbz:992-opus4-5197
Subtitle (English):evidence from four small open european economies with independent central banks
Series (Serial Number):WHU – Working Paper Series in Economics (WP 09/02)
Publisher:WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management
Place of publication:Vallendar
Document Type:Working Paper
Language:English
Date of Publication (online):2017/11/23
Date of first Publication:2009/07/01
Release Date:2017/11/23
Tag:Dänemark; Erwartungsbildung; Geldpolitik; Norwegen; Schweden; Schweiz; Skandinavische Volkswirtschaften; Taylor-Regel
Denmark; Expectation formation; Monetary policy; Norway; Scandinavian economies; Sweden; Switzerland; Taylor rule
Page Number:26
Institutes:WHU Economics Group / Chair of Monetary Economics
JEL-Classification:C Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / C3 Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models / C33 Models with Panel Data
D Microeconomics / D8 Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty / D84 Expectations; Speculations
E Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / E5 Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit / E52 Monetary Policy
Licence (German):Copyright for this publication