TY - UNPD A1 - Pierdzioch, Christian A1 - Rülke, Jan-Christoph A1 - Stadtmann, Georg T1 - On the international consistency of short-term, medium-term, and long-term oil price forecasts N2 - We derive internal consistency restrictions on short-term, mediumterm, and long-term oil price forecasts. We then analyze whether oil price forecasts extracted from the Survey of Professional Forecasters conducted by the European Central Bank satisfy these internal consistency restrictions. We find that neither short-term forecasts are consistent with medium-term forecasts nor that medium-term forecasts are consistent with long-term forecasts. Using a more complex expectation formation structure featuring a distributed lag structure, however, we find stronger evidence of internal consistency of mediumterm forecasts with long-term forecasts. T3 - WHU – Working Paper Series in Economics - WP 11/02 KW - Oil price KW - Ölpreis KW - Erdölpreis KW - Forecasting KW - Prognose KW - Consistency KW - Konsistenz Y1 - 2017 UR - https://opus4.kobv.de/opus4-whu/frontdoor/index/index/docId/422 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hbz:992-opus4-4221 VL - 2011 IS - WP 11/02 PB - WHU – Otto Beisheim School of Management CY - Vallendar ER -