TY - UNPD A1 - Rülke, Jan-Christoph A1 - Silgoner, Maria A1 - Wörz, Julia T1 - Herding Behavior of Business Cycle Forecasters in Times of Economic Crises N2 - Using a large international data set we analyze whether business cycle forecasters tend to herd or anti-herd. Applying different measures of economic crises, we distinguish between normal economic circumstances and times of crises. We fnd evidence for anti-herding behavior for most industrial economies, i.e. forecasters eliberately stick out their neck with extreme forecasts for strategic reasons. For a set of emerging market economies, by contrast, we find evidence for herding behavior. We relate this finding to the high incidence of economic and financial crises in these countries. A test for herding behavior during economic crises confirms that forecasters tend to herd in times of high forecast uncertainty. T3 - WHU – Working Paper Series in Economics - WP 12/03 KW - Business Cycle KW - Forecasting KW - Economic Crises KW - Herding Y1 - 2012 UR - https://opus4.kobv.de/opus4-whu/frontdoor/index/index/docId/31 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hbz:992-opus4-311 PB - WHU CY - Vallendar ER -