TY - UNPD A1 - Reitz, Stefan A1 - Rülke, Jan-Christoph A1 - Stadtmann, Georg T1 - Are oil-price-forecasters finally right? N2 - We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to analyze how forecaster build their expectations. Our findings point into the direction that the extrapolative as well as the regressive expectation formation hypothesis play a role. Standard measures of forecast accuracy reveal forecasters' underperformance relative to the random-walk benchmark. However, it seems that this result might be biased due to peso problems. T3 - WHU – Working Paper Series in Economics - WP 09/04 KW - Erdölpreis KW - Oil price KW - Befragungsdaten KW - Survey data KW - Abweichung von der Vorhersage KW - Forecast bias KW - Währungsproblem KW - Currency problem KW - Peso KW - Peso Y1 - 2017 UR - https://opus4.kobv.de/opus4-whu/frontdoor/index/index/docId/521 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hbz:992-opus4-5216 PB - WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management CY - Vallendar ER -