TY - UNPD A1 - Rülke, Jan-Christoph T1 - Do private sector forecasters desire to deviate from the german council of economic experts? N2 - In this paper, we contrast more than 6,000 private sector forecasts to projections of the German council of economic experts (Sachverständigenrat). Although the forecasts are submitted simultaneously, we find that the council's real economy forecasts, i.e. their growth, unemployment and fiscal forecasts have a higher forecast accuracy compared to the private sector forecasts. We also document that private sector forecasters deliberately place their real economy forecasts away from the council's projection. This strategic forecasting behavior explains why the private sector performs worse than the council. This result is robust over time but splitting the private sector in different groups reveals that the forecasts of banks compared to research institutes deviate more from the council's forecast. T3 - WHU – Working Paper Series in Economics - WP 11/04 KW - Private sector forecasters KW - Privatwirtschaftliche Prognostiker KW - Herding KW - Herdentrieb KW - German Council of Economic Experts KW - Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung Y1 - 2017 UR - https://opus4.kobv.de/opus4-whu/frontdoor/index/index/docId/420 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hbz:992-opus4-4203 VL - 2011 IS - WP 11/04 PB - WHU – Otto Beisheim School of Management CY - Vallendar ER -