B04
We study linear complementarity problems (LCPs) under uncertainty, which we model using chance constraints. Since the complementarity condition of the LCP is an equality constraint, it is required to consider relaxations, which naturally leads to optimization problems in which the relaxation parameters are minimized for given probability levels. We focus on these optimization problems and first study the continuity of the related probability functions and the compactness of the feasible sets. This leads to existence results for both types of models: one with a joint chance constraint and one with separate chance constraints for both uncertainty-affected conditions of the LCP. For both, we prove the differentiability of all probability functions and derive respective gradient formulae. For the separate case, we prove convexity of the respective optimization problem and use the gradient formulae to derive necessary and sufficient optimality conditions. In a small example of a Cournot oligopoly among energy producers, we finally illustrate our theoretical findings.
The spherical cap discrepancy is a prominent measure of uniformity for sets on the d-dimensional sphere. It is particularly important for estimating the integration error for certain classes of functions on the sphere. Building on a recently proven explicit formula for the spherical discrepancy, we show as a main result of this paper that this discrepancy is Lipschitz continuous in a neighbourhood of so-called generic point sets (as they are typical outcomes of Monte-Carlo sampling). This property may have some impact (both algorithmically and theoretically for deriving necessary optimality conditions) on optimal quantization, i.e., on finding point sets of fixed size on the sphere having minimum spherical discrepancy.
In this paper, a new method is presented for solving chance-constrained optimization problems. The method combines the well-established Spherical-Radial Decomposition approach with the Continuous Stochastic Gradient method. While the Continuous Stochastic Gradient method has been successfully applied to chance-constrained problems in the past, only the combination with the Spherical-Radial Decomposition allows to avoid smoothing of the integrand. In this chapter, we prove this fact for a relevant class of chance-constrained problems and apply the resulting method to the capacity maximization problem for gas networks.
In this paper, we discuss optimality conditions for optimization problems {involving} random state constraints, which are modeled in probabilistic or almost sure form. While the latter can be understood as the limiting case of the former, the derivation of optimality conditions requires substantially different approaches. We apply them to a linear elliptic partial differential equation (PDE) with random inputs.
In the probabilistic case, we rely on the spherical-radial decomposition of Gaussian random vectors in order to formulate fully explicit optimality conditions involving a spherical integral. In the almost sure case, we derive optimality conditions and compare them to a model based on robust constraints with respect to the (compact) support of the given distribution.
We consider the optimal control of a PDE with random source term subject to probabilistic or almost sure state constraints. In the main theoretical result, we provide an exact formula for the Clarke subdifferential of the probability function without a restrictive assumption made in an earlier paper. The focus of the paper is on numerical solution algorithms. As for probabilistic constraints, we apply the method of spherical radial decomposition. Almost sure constraints are dealt with a Moreau--Yosida smoothing of the constraint function accompanied by Monte Carlo sampling of the given distribution or its support or even just the boundary of its support. Moreover, one can understand the almost sure constraint as a probabilistic constraint with safety level one which offers yet another perspective. Finally, robust optimization can be applied efficiently when the support is sufficiently simple. A comparative study of these five different methodologies is carried out and illustrated.
In this paper, we deal with a renewable-powered mini-grid, connected to an unreliable main grid, in a Joint Chance Constrained (JCC) programming setting.
In many countries with low energy access rates, grid-connected mini-grid system operators contend with four different types of uncertainties: stochastic solar
power and demand forecast errors; absolute uncertain national grid outage onset
times; and outages duration subjected to statistical analysis. These uncertainties
pose new challenges to the classical power system’s operation tasks. Two alternatives to the JCC problem are presented. In particular, we present an Individual
Chance Constraint (ICC) and a purely deterministic dispatch model. The JCC
model has the capability to address all four uncertainties, while the ICC covers only three of them, overlooking the uncertainty about the outage duration.
In contrast, the purely deterministic model completely ignores any uncertain
parameters. We illustrate the three models through a comparison of outcomes
attained from a real mini-grid in Lake Victoria, Tanzania. Results show how the
dispatch is modified across the models to plan the battery and diesel reserves in
the chance-constrained models, with the reserves in the JCC being larger than
in the ICC model. In comparison between all models, we prove that the JCC model offers the most robust results, since it can handle uncertainties about forecasting errors, on the one hand, and grid outages, on the other. The results also
show that the decrease in profits due to the hedging with reserves kept in the
MG is significantly small compared to the high level of reliability reached and
the potential load shedding that could be avoided in the case of an outage.
We consider Mathematical Programs with Equilibrium Constraints with proba-
bilistic constraints (PMPECs). Such models have proven to be useful in modeling
electricity or gas markets subject to random parameters. Our main interest is the
derivation of Mordukhovich (M-) stationarity conditions under suitable constraint
quali...cations ensuring the calmness of the canonically perturbed generalized equation.
Applying recent results from deterministic MPECs, we identify the needed properties
of the probability function in order to derive explicit M-stationarity conditions. The
results are applied to a simple stochastic bilevel problem in an economic context.
In this paper we consider systems that are governed by linear time-discrete dynamics with an initial condition and a terminal condition for the expected values. We study optimal control problems where in the objective function a term of tracking type for the expected values and a control cost appear. In addition, the feasible states have to satisfy a conservative probabilistic constraint that requires that the probability that the trajectories remain in a given set F is greater than or equal to a given lower bound. An application are
optimal control problems related to storage management systems with uncertain in- and output. We give suffcient conditions that imply that the optimal expected trajectories remain close to a certain state that can be characterized as the solution of an optimal control problem without prescribed initial- and terminal condition. Hence we contribute to the study of the turnpike phenomenon that is well-known in mathematical economics.
Value at risk approach to producer's best response in electricity market with uncertain demand
(2021)
We deal with several sources of uncertainty in electricity markets. The independent system operator (ISO) maximizes the social welfare using chance constraints to hedge against discrepancies between the estimated and real electricity demand. We find an explicit solution of the ISO problem, and use it to tackle the problem of a producer. In our model, production as well as income of a producer are determined based on the estimated electricity demand predicted by the ISO, that is unknown to producers. Thus, each producer is hedging against the uncertainty of prediction of the demand using the value-at-risk approach. To illustrate our results, a numerical study of a producer's best response given a historical distribution of both estimated and real electricity demand is provided.
We present an adaptive grid refinement algorithm to solve probabilistic optimization problems with infinitely many random constraints. Using a bilevel approach, we iteratively aggregate inequalities that provide most information not in a geometric but in a probabilistic sense. This conceptual idea, for which a convergence proof is provided, is then adapted to an implementable algorithm. The efficiency of our approach when compared to naive methods based on uniform grid refinement is illustrated for a numerical test example as well as for a water reservoir problem with joint probabilistic filling level constraints.
