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We present a novel mathematical algorithm to assist gas network operators in managing uncertainty,
while increasing reliability of transmission and supply. As a result, we solve an optimization problem
with a joint probabilistic constraint over an infinite system of random inequalities. Such models arise
in the presence of uncertain parameters having partially stochastic and partially non-stochastic character.
The application that drives this new approach is a stationary network with uncertain demand
(which are stochastic due to the possibility of fitting statistical distributions based on historical measurements)
and with uncertain roughness coefficients in the pipes (which are uncertain but non-stochastic due to a lack of
attainable measurements).
We study the sensitivity of local uncertainties in the roughness coefficients and their impact on a highly reliable
network operation. In particular, we are going to answer the question, what is the maximum uncertainty that is
allowed (shaping a 'maximal' uncertainty set) around nominal roughness coefficients, such that random demands in
a stationary gas network can be satisfied at given high probability level for no matter which realization of
true roughness coefficients within the uncertainty set.
One ends up with a constraint, which is probabilistic with respect to the load of gas
and robust with respect to the roughness coefficients. We demonstrate how such constraints can be dealt with in
the framework of the so-called spheric-radial decomposition of multivariate Gaussian distributions.
The numerical solution of a corresponding optimization problem is illustrated.
The results might assist the network operator with the implementation
of cost-intensive roughness measurements.
In this paper we address novel results on the theoretical structural analysis of dynamic joint probabilistic constraints under continuous random variables. This dynamic probabilistic function is important when decisions are time-dependent and when the modeler can react on past observations. We first study the continuity of dynamic probabilistic constraints and provide strong and weak semi-continuous results depending on whether the policies are supposed to be in the L^p or W^{1,p} spaces. Moreover, we prove the non-convexity of the feasible set of decisions induced by a dynamic probability function in the L^p space. Lastly, for a simple two-stage model, verifiable conditions for Lipschitz continuity and differentiability of this probability function are derived and endowed with explicit derivative formulae.
Joint model of probabilistic/robust (probust) constraints applied to gas network optimization
(2017)
Optimization tasks under uncertain conditions abound in many
real-life applications. Whereas solution approaches for probabilistic constraints
are often developed in case the uncertainties can be assumed to follow a
certain probability distribution, robust approaches are usually used in case
solutions are sought that are feasible for all realizations of uncertainties within
some pre-defined uncertainty set. As many applications contain different types
of uncertainties that require robust as well as probabilistic treatments, we deal with a class of joint probabilistic/robust constraints as its appears in
optimization problems under uncertainty. Focusing on complex uncertain gas
network optimization problems, we show the relevance of this class of problems
for the task of maximizing free booked capacities in an algebraic model for a
stationary gas network. We furthermore present approaches for their solution.
Finally, we study the problem of controlling a transient system that is governed
by the wave equation. The task consists in determining controls such that a
certain robustness measure remains below some given upper bound, with high
probability.