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Ongoing policy discussions on the reconfiguration of bidding zones in European electricity markets induce uncertainty about the future market design. This paper deals with the question of how this uncertainty affects market participants and their long-run investment decisions in generation and transmission capacity. Generalizing the literature on pro-active network expansion planning, we propose a stochastic multilevel model which incorporates generation capacity investment, network expansion, and market operation, taking into account uncertainty about the future bidding zone configuration. Using a stylized two-node network, we disentangle different effects that uncertainty has on market outcomes. If there is a possibility that future bidding zone configurations provide improved regional price signals, welfare gains materialize even if the change does not actually take place. As a consequence, welfare gains of an actual change of the bidding zone configuration are substantially lower due to those anticipatory effects. Additionally, we show substantial distributional effects in terms of both expected gains and risks, between producers and consumers and between different generation technologies.
In the course of the energy transition, load and supply centers are growing apart in electricity markets worldwide, rendering regional price signals even more important to provide adequate locational investment incentives. This paper focuses on electricity markets that operate under a zonal pricing market design. For a fixed number of zones, we endogenously derive the optimal configuration of price zones and available transfer capacities on a network in order to optimally govern investment and production decisions in the long run. In a multilevel mixed-integer nonlinear model that contains a graph partitioning problem on the first level, we determine welfare-maximizing price zones and available transfer capacities for a given electricity market and analyze their impact on market outcomes. Using a generalized Benders decomposition approach developed in Grimm et al. (2019) and a problem-tailored scenario clustering for reducing the input data size, we are able to solve the model to global optimality even for large instances. We apply the approach to the German electricity market as an example to examine the impact of optimal zoning on key performance indicators such as welfare, generation mix and locations, or electricity prices. It turns out that even for a small number of price zones, an optimal configuration of zones induces a welfare level that almost approaches the first best.
