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Robust DC Optimal Power Flow with Modeling of Solar Power Supply Uncertainty via R-Vine Copulas
(2021)
We present a robust approximation of joint chance constrained DC Optimal Power Flow in combination with a model-based prediction of uncertain power supply via R-vine copulas.
It is applied to optimize the discrete curtailment of solar feed-in in an electrical distribution network and guarantees network stability under fluctuating feed-in.
This is modeled by a two-stage mixed-integer stochastic optimization problem proposed by Aigner et al. (European Journal of Operational Research, (2021)).
The solution approach is based on the approximation of chance constraints via robust constraints using suitable uncertainty sets.
The resulting robust optimization problem has a known equivalent tractable reformulation.
To compute uncertainty sets that lead to an inner approximation of the stochastic problem, an R-vine copula model is fitted to the distribution of the multi-dimensional power forecast error, i.e., the difference between the forecasted solar power and the measured feed-in at several network nodes.
The uncertainty sets are determined by encompassing a sufficient number of samples drawn from the R-vine copula model.
Furthermore, an enhanced algorithm is proposed to fit R-vine copulas which can be used to draw conditional samples for given solar radiation forecasts.
The experimental results obtained for real-world weather and network data demonstrate the effectiveness of the combination of stochastic programming and model-based prediction of uncertainty via copulas.
We improve the outcomes of previous work by showing that the resulting uncertainty sets are much smaller and lead to less conservative solutions while maintaining the same probabilistic guarantees.
In this paper we analyze a uniform price electricity spot market that is followed by redispatch in the case of network congestion. We assume that the transmission system operator is incentivized to minimize redispatch cost and compare a cost-based redispatch (CBR) to a market-based redispatch (MBR) mechanism. For networks with at least three nodes we show that in contrast to CBR, in the case of MBR the redispatch cost minimizing allocation may not be short-run efficient. As we demonstrate, in case of MBR the possibility of the transmission system operator to reduce redispatch cost at the expense of a reduced welfare may be driven by the electricity supply side or the electricity demand side. If, however, the transmission system operator is obliged to implement the welfare maximizing (instead of the redispatch cost minimizing) dispatch by regulation, this will result in an efficient dispatch also in case of MBR.
Natural gas is important for the energy turnaround in many countries like in Germany, where it serves as a "bridging energy" towards a fossil-free energy supply in the future. About 20% of the total German energy demand is provided by natural gas, which is transported through a complex pipeline network with a total length of about 30000 km and the efficient use of the given transport infrastructure for natural gas is of political, economic, and societal importance.
As a consequence of the liberalization of the European gas market in the last decades, gas trading and transport have been decoupled. This has led to new challenges for gas transport companies, and mathematical optimization is perfectly suited for tackling many of these challenges. However, the underlying mathematical problems are by far too hard to be solved by today's general-purpose software so that novel mathematical theory and algorithms are needed. The industrial research project "ForNe: Research Cooperation Network Optimization" has been initiated and funded by Open Grid Europe in 2009 and brought together experts in mathematical optimization from seven German universities and research institutes, which cover almost the entire range of mathematical optimization: integer and nonlinear optimization as well as optimization under uncertainty.
The mathematical research results have been put together in a software package that has been delivered to Open Grid Europe at the end of the project. Moreover, the research is still continuing - e.g., in the Collaborative Research Center/Transregio 154 "Mathematical Modelling, Simulation and Optimization using the Example of Gas Networks" funded by the German Research Foundation.
We propose a mathematical optimization model and its solution for joint chance constrained DC Optimal Power Flow. In this application, it is particularly important that there is a high probability of transmission limits being satisfied, even in the case of uncertain or fluctuating feed-in from renewable energy sources. In critical network situations where the network risks overload, renewable energy feed-in has to be curtailed by the transmission system operator (TSO). The TSO can reduce the feed-in in discrete steps at each network node. The proposed optimization model minimizes curtailment while ensuring that there is a high probability of transmission limits being maintained. The latter is modeled via (joint) chance constraints that are computationally challenging. Thus, we propose a solution approach based on the robust safe approximation of these constraints. Hereby, probabilistic constraints are replaced by robust constraints with suitably defined uncertainty sets constructed from historical data. The uncertainty sets are calculated by encompassing randomly drawn scenarios using the scenario approach proposed by Margellos et al. (IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 59 (2014)). The ability to discretely control the power feed-in then leads to a robust optimization problem with decision-dependent uncertainties, i.e. the uncertainty sets depend on decision variables. We propose an equivalent mixed-integer linear reformulation for box uncertainties with the exact linearization of bilinear terms. Finally, we present numerical results for different test cases from the Nesta archive, as well as for a real network. We consider the discrete curtailment of solar feed-in, for which we use real-world weather and network data. The experimental tests demonstrate the effectiveness of this method and run times are very fast. Moreover, on average the calculated robust solutions lead only to a small increase in curtailment, when compared to nominal solutions.
Portfolio optimization is an ongoing hot topic of mathematical optimization and management science. Due to the current financial market environment with low interest rates and volatile stock markets, it is getting more and more important to extend portfolio optimization models by other types of investments than classical assets. In this paper, we present a mixed-integer multistage stochastic model that includes investment opportunities in irreversible and long-term infrastructure projects in the context of renewable energies, which are also subject to policy risk. On realistic time scales for investment problems of this type, the resulting instances are by far too large to be solved with today's most evolved optimization software. Thus, we present a tailored moving-horizon approach together with suitable approximations and simplifications of the model. We evaluate these approximations and simplifications in a computational sensitivity analysis and derive a final model that can be tackled on a realistic instance by our moving-horizon approach.
We consider dynamic gas transport optimization problems, which lead to large-scale and nonconvex mixed-integer nonlinear optimization problems (MINLPs) on graphs. Usually, the resulting instances are too challenging to be solved by state-of-the-art MINLP solvers. In this paper, we use graph decompositions to obtain multiple optimization problems on smaller blocks, which can be solved in parallel and which may result in simpler classes of optimization problems since not every block necessarily contains mixed-integer or nonlinear aspects. For achieving feasibility at the interfaces of the several blocks, we employ a tailored consensus-based penalty alternating direction method. Our numerical results show that such decomposition techniques can outperform the baseline approach of just solving the overall MINLP from scratch. However, a complete answer to the question of how to decompose MINLPs on graphs in dependence of the given model is still an open topic for future research.
We investigate the problem of scheduling the maintenance
of edges in a network, motivated by the goal of minimizing outages in
transportation or telecommunication networks. We focus on maintaining
connectivity between two nodes over time; for the special case of path
networks, this is related to the problem of minimizing the busy time of
machines.
We show that the problem can be solved in polynomial time in arbitrary
networks if preemption is allowed. If preemption is restricted to integral
time points, the problem is NP-hard and in the non-preemptive case
we give strong non-approximability results. Furthermore, we give tight
bounds on the power of preemption, that is, the maximum ratio of the
values of non-preemptive and preemptive optimal solutions.
Interestingly, the preemptive and the non-preemptive problem can be
solved efficiently on paths, whereas we show that mixing both leads to a
weakly NP-hard problem that allows for a simple 2-approximation.
We consider a system of scalar nonlocal conservation laws on networks that model a highly re-entrant multi-commodity manufacturing system as encountered in semiconductor production. Every single commodity is mod-eled by a nonlocal conservation law, and the corresponding PDEs are coupled via a collective load, the work in progress. We illustrate the dynamics for two commodities. In the applications, directed acyclic networks naturally occur, therefore this type of networks is considered. On every edge of the network we have a system of coupled conservation laws with nonlocal velocity. At the junctions the right hand side boundary data of the foregoing edges is passed as left hand side boundary data to the following edges and PDEs. For distributing junctions, where we have more than one outgoing edge, we impose time dependent distribution functions that guarantee conservation of mass. We provide results of regularity, existence and well-posedness of the multi-commodity network model for L p-, BV-and W 1,p-data. Moreover, we define an L 2-tracking type objective and show the existence of minimizers that solve the corresponding optimal control problem.
In this work, we present an exact approach for solving network design problems that is based on an iterative graph aggregation procedure. The scheme allows existing preinstalled capacities. Starting with an initial aggregation, we solve a sequence of network design master problems over increasingly fine-grained representations of the original network. In each step, a subproblem is solved that either proves optimality of the solution or gives a directive where to refine the representation of the network in the subsequent iteration. The algorithm terminates with a globally optimal solution to the original problem. Our implementation uses a standard integer programming solver for solving the master problems as well as the subproblems. The computational results on random and realistic instances confirm the profitable use of the iterative aggregation technique. The computing time often reduces drastically when our method is compared to solving the original problem from scratch.
Im Mai 2014 wurde seitens der DFG der Transregio
154 Mathematische Modellierung, Simulation und
Optimierung am Beispiel von Gasnetzwerken bewilligt.
Die Forschungsarbeiten an den beteiligten Standorten,
der Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg
(Sprecheruniversität; Sprecher: Alexander Martin), der
Technischen Universität Darmstadt (stellvertretender
Sprecher: Jens Lang), der Technischen Universität Berlin,
der Humboldt Universität (stellvertretende Sprecherin:
Caren Tischendorf) sowie den Partnerinstitutionen
Weierstraß-Institut (Berlin), Konrad-Zuse-Zentrum (Berlin)
und Universität Duisburg-Essen haben im Oktober
2014 begonnen.