Stochastic Optimization (SO) is a classical approach for optimization under uncertainty that typically requires knowledge about the probability distribution of uncertain parameters. As the latter is often unknown, Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) provides a strong alternative that determines the best guaranteed solution over a set of distributions (ambiguity set). In this work, we present an approach for DRO over time that uses online learning and scenario observations arriving as a data stream to learn more about the uncertainty. Our robust solutions adapt over time and reduce the cost of protection with shrinking ambiguity. For various kinds of ambiguity sets, the robust solutions converge to the SO solution. Our algorithm achieves the optimization and learning goals without solving the DRO problem exactly at any step. We also provide a regret bound for the quality of the online strategy which converges at a rate of $ O(\log T / \sqrt{T})$, where $T$ is the number of iterations. Furthermore, we illustrate the effectiveness of our procedure by numerical experiments on mixed-integer optimization instances from popular benchmark libraries and give practical examples stemming from telecommunications and routing. Our algorithm is able to solve the DRO over time problem significantly faster than standard reformulations.
Robust DC Optimal Power Flow with Modeling of Solar Power Supply Uncertainty via R-Vine Copulas
(2021)
We present a robust approximation of joint chance constrained DC Optimal Power Flow in combination with a model-based prediction of uncertain power supply via R-vine copulas.
It is applied to optimize the discrete curtailment of solar feed-in in an electrical distribution network and guarantees network stability under fluctuating feed-in.
This is modeled by a two-stage mixed-integer stochastic optimization problem proposed by Aigner et al. (European Journal of Operational Research, (2021)).
The solution approach is based on the approximation of chance constraints via robust constraints using suitable uncertainty sets.
The resulting robust optimization problem has a known equivalent tractable reformulation.
To compute uncertainty sets that lead to an inner approximation of the stochastic problem, an R-vine copula model is fitted to the distribution of the multi-dimensional power forecast error, i.e., the difference between the forecasted solar power and the measured feed-in at several network nodes.
The uncertainty sets are determined by encompassing a sufficient number of samples drawn from the R-vine copula model.
Furthermore, an enhanced algorithm is proposed to fit R-vine copulas which can be used to draw conditional samples for given solar radiation forecasts.
The experimental results obtained for real-world weather and network data demonstrate the effectiveness of the combination of stochastic programming and model-based prediction of uncertainty via copulas.
We improve the outcomes of previous work by showing that the resulting uncertainty sets are much smaller and lead to less conservative solutions while maintaining the same probabilistic guarantees.
We present a solution framework for general alternating current optimal power flow (AC OPF) problems that include discrete decisions.
The latter occur, for instance, in the context of the curtailment of renewables or the
switching of power generation units and transmission lines.
Our approach delivers globally optimal solutions and is provably convergent.
We model AC OPF problems with discrete decisions as mixed-integer nonlinear programs.
The solution method starts from a known framework that uses piecewise linear relaxations.
These relaxations are modeled as as mixed-integer linear programs and adaptively refined until some termination criterion is fulfilled.
In this work, we extend and complement this approach by problem-specific as well as very general algorithmic enhancements.
In particular, these are mixed-integer second-order cone programs as well as primal and dual cutting planes.
For example objective cuts and no-good-cuts help to compute good feasible solutions as where outer approximation constraints tighten the relaxations.
We present extensive numerical results for various AC OPF problems where discrete decisions play a major role.
Even for hard instances with a large proportion of discrete decisions, the method is able
to generate high quality solutions efficiently.
Furthermore, we compare our approach with state-of-the-art MINLP.
Our method outperforms all other algorithms.
We propose a mathematical optimization model and its solution for joint chance constrained DC Optimal Power Flow. In this application, it is particularly important that there is a high probability of transmission limits being satisfied, even in the case of uncertain or fluctuating feed-in from renewable energy sources. In critical network situations where the network risks overload, renewable energy feed-in has to be curtailed by the transmission system operator (TSO). The TSO can reduce the feed-in in discrete steps at each network node. The proposed optimization model minimizes curtailment while ensuring that there is a high probability of transmission limits being maintained. The latter is modeled via (joint) chance constraints that are computationally challenging. Thus, we propose a solution approach based on the robust safe approximation of these constraints. Hereby, probabilistic constraints are replaced by robust constraints with suitably defined uncertainty sets constructed from historical data. The uncertainty sets are calculated by encompassing randomly drawn scenarios using the scenario approach proposed by Margellos et al. (IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 59 (2014)). The ability to discretely control the power feed-in then leads to a robust optimization problem with decision-dependent uncertainties, i.e. the uncertainty sets depend on decision variables. We propose an equivalent mixed-integer linear reformulation for box uncertainties with the exact linearization of bilinear terms. Finally, we present numerical results for different test cases from the Nesta archive, as well as for a real network. We consider the discrete curtailment of solar feed-in, for which we use real-world weather and network data. The experimental tests demonstrate the effectiveness of this method and run times are very fast. Moreover, on average the calculated robust solutions lead only to a small increase in curtailment, when compared to nominal solutions.
Stochastic and (distributionally) robust optimization problems often become computationally challenging as the number of scenarios increases. Scenario reduction is therefore a key technique for improving tractability. We introduce a general scenario reduction method for distributionally robust optimization (DRO), which includes stochastic and robust optimization as special cases. Our approach constructs the reduced DRO problem by projecting the original ambiguity set onto a reduced set of scenarios. Under mild conditions, we establish bounds on the relative quality of the reduction. The methodology is applicable to random variables following either discrete or continuous probability distributions, with representative scenarios appropriately selected in both cases. Given the relevance of optimization problems with linear
and quadratic objectives, we further refine our approach for these settings. Finally, we demonstrate its effectiveness through numerical experiments on mixed-integer benchmark instances from MIPLIB and portfolio optimization problems. Our results show that the oroposed approximation significantly reduces solution time while maintaining high solution quality with only minor errors.
Mathematical optimization, although often leading to NP-hard models, is now capable of solving even large-scale instances within reasonable time. However, the primary focus is often placed
solely on optimality. This implies that while obtained solutions are globally optimal, they are frequently not comprehensible to humans, in particular when obtained by black-box routines. In contrast, explainability is a standard requirement for results in Artificial Intelligence, but it is rarely considered in optimization yet. There are only a few studies that aim to find solutions that are both of high quality and explainable. In recent work, explainability for optimization was defined in a data-driven manner: a solution is considered explainable if it closely resembles solutions that have been used in the past under similar circumstances. To this end, it is crucial to identify a preferably small subset of features from a presumably large set that can be used to explain a solution. In mathematical optimization, feature selection has received little attention yet. In this work, we formally define the feature selection problem for explainable optimization and prove that its decision version is NP-complete. We introduce mathematical models for optimized feature selection. As their global solution requires significant computation time with modern mixed-integer linear solvers, we employ local heuristics. Our computational study using data that reflect real-world scenarios demonstrates that the problem can be solved practically efficiently for instances of reasonable size.
We propose a novel online learning framework for robust Bayesian optimization of uncertain black-box functions. While Bayesian optimization is well-suited for data-efficient optimization of expensive objectives, its standard form can be sensitive to hidden or varying parameters. To address this issue, we consider a min–max robust counterpart of the optimization problem and develop a practically efficient solution algorithm, BROVER (Bayesian Robust Optimization via Exploration with Regret minimization). Our method combines Gaussian process regression with a decomposition approach: the minimax structure is split into a non-convex online learner based on the Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader algorithm together with a subsequent minimization step in the decision variables. We prove that the theoretical regret bound converges under mild assumptions, ensuring asymptotic convergence to robust solutions. Numerical experiments on synthetic data validate the regret guarantees and demonstrate fast convergence to the robust optimum. Furthermore, we apply our method to the robust optimization of organic solar cell performance, where hidden process parameters and experimental variability naturally induce uncertainty. Our results on real-world datae show that BROVER identifies solutions with strong robustness properties within relatively few iterations, thereby offering a modern and practical approach for data-driven black-box optimization under uncertainty.