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We propose an equilibrium model that allows to analyze the long-run impact of the electricity market design on transmission line expansion by the regulator and investment in generation capacity by private firms in liberalized electricity markets. The model incorporates investment decisions of the transmission system operator and private firms in expectation of an energy-only market and cost-based redispatch. In different specifications we consider the cases of one vs. multiple price zones (market splitting) and analyze different approaches to recover network cost—in particular lump sum, generation capacity based, and energy based fees. In order to compare the outcomes of our multilevel market model with a first best benchmark, we also solve the corresponding integrated planner problem. Using two test networks we illustrate that energy-only markets can lead to suboptimal locational decisions for generation capacity and thus imply excessive network expansion. Market splitting heals these problems only partially. These results are valid for all considered types of network tariffs, although investment slightly differs across those regimes.
In this paper we analyze peak-load pricing in the presence of network constraints. In our setup, firms facing fluctuating demand decide on the size and location of production facilities. They make production decisions constrained by the invested capacities, taking into account that market prices reflect scarce transmission capacities. We state general conditions for existence and uniqueness of the market equilibrium and provide a characterization of equilibrium investment and production. The presented analysis covers the cases of perfect competition and monopoly - the case of strategic firms is approximated by a conjectural variations approach. Our result is a prerequisite for analyzing regulatory policy options with computational multilevel equilibrium models, since uniqueness of the equilibrium at lower levels is of key importance when solving these models. Thus, our paper contributes to an evolving strand of literature that analyzes regulatory policy based on computational multilevel equilibrium models and aims at taking into account individual objectives of various agents, among them not only generators and customers but also, e.g., the regulator deciding on network expansion.
We propose a framework that allows to quantitatively analyze the interplay of the different agents involved in gas trade and transport in the context of the European entry-exit system. Previous contributions have focused on the case of perfectly competitive buyers and sellers of gas, which allows to replace the respective market equilibrium problem by a single welfare maximization problem. Our novel framework considers the mathematically more challenging case of a monopolistic and thus strategic gas seller. In this framework, the objective functions of the gas sellers and buyers cannot be aggregated into a common objective function, which is why a multilevel formulation is necessary to accurately capture the sequential nature of the decisions taken. For this setup, we derive sufficient conditions that allow for reformulating the challenging four-level model as a computationally tractable single-level reformulation. We prove the correctness of this reformulation and use it for solving several test instances to illustrate the applicability of our approach.
We investigate a class of generalized Nash equilibrium problems (GNEPs) in which the objectives of the individuals are interdependent and the shared constraint consists of a system of partial differential equations. This setup is motivated by the modeling of strategic interactions of competing firms, which explicitly take into account the dynamics of transporting a commodity such as natural gas or hydrogen. We establish the existence of a variational equilibrium of the GNEP. In the case of symmetric firms, we identify an equivalent optimization problem. We use this model to numerically explore the impact of linepacking, that is the use of the network as a temporary storage device. In particular, we study the firms' decisions under various linepacking abilities and analyze which market participants benefit from it.
The economics of global green ammonia trade – "Shipping Australian wind and sunshine to Germany"
(2023)
This paper contributes to understanding the transformation of global energy trade to green energy carriers, focusing on green ammonia as the foreseeable first green hydrogen carrier. We provide a comprehensive overview of today's ammonia trade and assess scaling options for the trade of green ammonia. To that aim, we develop an optimization model for the integrated assessment of the green ammonia value chain that covers all steps from green ammonia production in an exporting country, up to delivery to a harbor in an importing country. The model endogenously chooses among different technology options and determines cost minimal operation. In a case study, we apply the model to the large-scale import of ammonia from Australia to Germany in a scenario for 2030. The results show that green ammonia can reach cost parity with gray ammonia even for moderate gas prices (but not necessarily with blue ammonia) if CO2 prices are high enough. We also provide a sensitivity analysis with respect to the interest rate and other key technical and economic parameters and show that cracking ammonia to provide pure hydrogen comes at a 45 % cost markup per MWh at the destination.
In this paper we propose an equilibrium model that allows to analyze subsidization schemes to affect locational choices for generation investment in electricity markets. Our framework takes into account generation investment decided by private investors and redispatch as well as network expansion decided by a regulated transmission system operator. In order to take into account the different objectives and decision variables of those agents, our approach uses a bi-level structure. We focus on the case of regionally differentiated network fees which have to be paid by generators (a so called g-component). The resulting investment and production decisions are compared to the outcome of an equilibrium model in the absence of such regionally differentiated investment incentives and to an overall optimal (first-best) benchmark. To illustrate possible economic effects, we calibrate our framework with data from the German electricity market. Our results reveal that while regionally differentiated network fees do have a significant impact on locational choice of generation capacities, we do not find significant effects on either welfare or
network expansion.
In this paper we propose a bi-level equilibrium model that allows to analyze the impact of different regulatory frameworks on storage and network investment in distribution networks. In our model, a regulated distribution system operator decides on network investment and operation while he anticipates the decisions of private agents on storage investment and operation. Since, especially in distribution networks, voltage stability and network losses have a decisive influence on network expansion and operation, we use a linearized AC power flow formulation to adequately account for these aspects. As adjustments of the current regulatory framework, we consider curtailment of renewable production, the introduction of a network fee based on the maximum renewable feed-in, and a subsidy scheme for storage investment. The performance of the different alternative frameworks is compared to the performance under rules that are commonly applied in various countries today, as well as to a system-optimal (first-best) benchmark. To illustrate the economic effects, we calibrate our model with data from the field project Smart Grid Solar. Our results reveal that curtailment and a redesign of network fees both have the potential to significantly reduce total system costs. On the contrary, investment subsidization of storage capacity has only a limited impact as long as the distribution system operator is not allowed to intervene in storage operation.
Electric fuels (e-fuels) enable CO2-neutral mobility and are therefore an alternative to battery-powered electric vehicles. This paper compares the cost-effectiveness of Fischer-Tropsch diesel, methanol and Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carriers. The production costs of those fuels are to a large part driven by the energy-intensive electrolytic hydrogen production. In this paper, we apply a multi-level electricity market model to calculate future hourly electricity prices for various electricity market designs in Germany for the year 2035. We then assess the economic efficiency of the different fuels under various future market conditions. In particular, we use the electricity price vectors derived from an electricity market model calibrated for 2035 as an input for a mathematical model of the entire process chain from hydrogen production and chemical bonding to the energetic utilization of the fuels in a vehicle. Within this model, we perform a sensitivity analysis, which quantifies the impact of various parameters on the fuel production cost. Most importantly, we consider prices resulting from own model calculations for different energy market designs, the investment cost for the electrolysis systems and the carbon dioxide purchase price. The results suggest that the use of hydrogen, which is temporarily bound to Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carriers, is a favorable alternative to the more widely discussed synthetic diesel and methanol.
In this paper we analyze a uniform price electricity spot market that is followed by redispatch in the case of network congestion. We assume that the transmission system operator is incentivized to minimize redispatch cost and compare a cost-based redispatch (CBR) to a market-based redispatch (MBR) mechanism. For networks with at least three nodes we show that in contrast to CBR, in the case of MBR the redispatch cost minimizing allocation may not be short-run efficient. As we demonstrate, in case of MBR the possibility of the transmission system operator to reduce redispatch cost at the expense of a reduced welfare may be driven by the electricity supply side or the electricity demand side. If, however, the transmission system operator is obliged to implement the welfare maximizing (instead of the redispatch cost minimizing) dispatch by regulation, this will result in an efficient dispatch also in case of MBR.
Ongoing policy discussions on the reconfiguration of bidding zones in European electricity markets induce uncertainty about the future market design. This paper deals with the question of how this uncertainty affects market participants and their long-run investment decisions in generation and transmission capacity. Generalizing the literature on pro-active network expansion planning, we propose a stochastic multilevel model which incorporates generation capacity investment, network expansion, and market operation, taking into account uncertainty about the future bidding zone configuration. Using a stylized two-node network, we disentangle different effects that uncertainty has on market outcomes. If there is a possibility that future bidding zone configurations provide improved regional price signals, welfare gains materialize even if the change does not actually take place. As a consequence, welfare gains of an actual change of the bidding zone configuration are substantially lower due to those anticipatory effects. Additionally, we show substantial distributional effects in terms of both expected gains and risks, between producers and consumers and between different generation technologies.
