TY - JOUR A1 - Ambrosius, Mirjam A1 - Egerer, Jonas A1 - Grimm, Veronika A1 - van der Weijde, Adriaan H. T1 - Uncertain bidding zone configurations: The role of expectations for transmission and generation capacity expansion JF - European Journal of Operational Research N2 - Ongoing policy discussions on the reconfiguration of bidding zones in European electricity markets induce uncertainty about the future market design. This paper deals with the question of how this uncertainty affects market participants and their long-run investment decisions in generation and transmission capacity. Generalizing the literature on pro-active network expansion planning, we propose a stochastic multilevel model which incorporates generation capacity investment, network expansion, and market operation, taking into account uncertainty about the future bidding zone configuration. Using a stylized two-node network, we disentangle different effects that uncertainty has on market outcomes. If there is a possibility that future bidding zone configurations provide improved regional price signals, welfare gains materialize even if the change does not actually take place. As a consequence, welfare gains of an actual change of the bidding zone configuration are substantially lower due to those anticipatory effects. Additionally, we show substantial distributional effects in terms of both expected gains and risks, between producers and consumers and between different generation technologies. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2020.01.024 IS - 285 (1) SP - 343 EP - 359 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Egerer, Jonas A1 - Grimm, Veronika A1 - Kleinert, Thomas A1 - Schmidt, Martin A1 - Zöttl, Gregor T1 - The Impact of Neighboring Markets on Renewable Locations, Transmission Expansion, and Generation Investment JF - European Journal of Operational Research N2 - Many long-term investment planning models for liberalized electricity markets either optimize for the entire electricity system or focus on confined jurisdictions, abstracting from adjacent markets. In this paper, we provide models for analyzing the impact of the interdependencies between a core electricity market and its neighboring markets on key long-run decisions. This we do both for zonal and nodal pricing schemes. The identification of welfare optimal investments in transmission lines and renewable capacity within a core electricity market requires a spatially restricted objective function, which also accounts for benefits from cross-border electricity trading. This leads to mixed-integer nonlinear multilevel optimization problems with bilinear nonconvexities for which we adapt a Benders-like decomposition approach from the literature. In a case study, we use a stylized six-node network to disentangle different effects of optimal regional (as compared to supra-regional) investment planning. Regional planning alters investment in transmission and renewable capacity in the core region, which affects private investment in generation capacity also in adjacent regions and increases welfare in the core region at the cost of system welfare. Depending on the congestion-pricing scheme, the regulator of the core region follows different strategies to increase welfare causing distributional effects among stakeholders. KW - Neighboring Markets KW - Renewables KW - Network Expansion KW - Multilevel Optimization KW - Benders Decomposition Y1 - 2019 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Egerer, Jonas A1 - Grimm, Veronika A1 - Niazmand, Kiana A1 - Runge, Philipp T1 - The economics of global green ammonia trade – "Shipping Australian wind and sunshine to Germany" JF - Applied Energy N2 - This paper contributes to understanding the transformation of global energy trade to green energy carriers, focusing on green ammonia as the foreseeable first green hydrogen carrier. We provide a comprehensive overview of today's ammonia trade and assess scaling options for the trade of green ammonia. To that aim, we develop an optimization model for the integrated assessment of the green ammonia value chain that covers all steps from green ammonia production in an exporting country, up to delivery to a harbor in an importing country. The model endogenously chooses among different technology options and determines cost minimal operation. In a case study, we apply the model to the large-scale import of ammonia from Australia to Germany in a scenario for 2030. The results show that green ammonia can reach cost parity with gray ammonia even for moderate gas prices (but not necessarily with blue ammonia) if CO2 prices are high enough. We also provide a sensitivity analysis with respect to the interest rate and other key technical and economic parameters and show that cracking ammonia to provide pure hydrogen comes at a 45 % cost markup per MWh at the destination. KW - green ammonia KW - ammonia trade KW - optimization model KW - case study Australia to Germany Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.120662 VL - 334 ER -