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  <doc>
    <id>334</id>
    <completedYear>2020</completedYear>
    <publishedYear/>
    <thesisYearAccepted/>
    <language>eng</language>
    <pageFirst/>
    <pageLast/>
    <pageNumber/>
    <edition/>
    <issue/>
    <volume/>
    <type>preprint</type>
    <publisherName/>
    <publisherPlace/>
    <creatingCorporation/>
    <contributingCorporation/>
    <belongsToBibliography>1</belongsToBibliography>
    <completedDate>2020-10-05</completedDate>
    <publishedDate>--</publishedDate>
    <thesisDateAccepted>--</thesisDateAccepted>
    <title language="eng">Multi-period investment pathways - Modeling approaches to design distributed energy systems under uncertainty</title>
    <abstract language="eng">Multi-modal distributed energy system planning is applied in the context of smart grids, industrial energy supply,and in the building energy sector. In real-world applications, these systems are commonly characterized by existing system structures of different age where monitoring and investment are conducted in a closed-loop, with the iterative possibility to invest. The literature contains two main approaches to approximate this computationally intensive multiperiod&#13;
investment problem. The first approach simplifies the temporal decision-making process collapsing the multistage decision to a two-stage decision, considering uncertainty in the second stage decision variables. The second approach considers multi-period investments under the assumption of perfect foresight. In this work, we propose a&#13;
multi-stage stochastic optimization problem that captures multi-period investment decisions under uncertainty and solves the problem to global optimality, serving as a first-best benchmark to the problem. To evaluate the performance of conventional approaches applied in a multi-year setup and to solve the multi-period problem at lower computational effort, we propose a rolling horizon heuristic that on the one hand reveals the performance of conventional approaches&#13;
applied in a multi-period set-up and on the other hand enables planners to identify approximate solutions to the original&#13;
multi-stage stochastic problem. Additionally, we consider an open-loop version of the rolling horizon algorithm to evaluate how single-period investments perform with respect to the entire scenario tree and compared to multi-period investments.&#13;
We conduct a real-world case study and investigate solution quality as well as the computational performance of the proposed approaches. Our findings indicate that the approximation of multi-period investments by two-stage stochastic approaches yield the best results regarding constraint satisfaction, while deterministic multi-period approximations yield&#13;
better economic and computational performance.</abstract>
    <licence>Creative Commons - CC BY-NC-ND - Namensnennung - Nicht kommerziell - Keine Bearbeitungen 4.0 International</licence>
    <author>Markus Bohlayer</author>
    <author>Adrian Bürger</author>
    <author>Markus Fleschutz</author>
    <author>Marco Braun</author>
    <author>Gregor Zöttl</author>
    <collection role="institutes" number="">Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg</collection>
    <collection role="subprojects" number="">B09</collection>
    <collection role="institutes" number="">Karlsruhe University of Applied Sciences</collection>
    <collection role="institutes" number="">Cork Institute of Technology</collection>
    <file>https://opus4.kobv.de/opus4-trr154/files/334/document.pdf</file>
  </doc>
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