Fachbereich Ingenieur- und Naturwissenschaften
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The new coronavirus COVID-19 has been spreading worldwide for almost three years. The global community has developed effective measures to contain and control the pandemic. However, new factors are emerging that are driving the dynamics of COVID-19. One of these factors was the escalation of Russia's war in Ukraine. This study aims to test the hypothesis of the influence of migration flows caused by the Russian war in Ukraine on the dynamics of the epidemic process in Germany. For this, a model of the COVID-19 epidemic process was built based on the polynomial regression method. The model's adequacy was tested 30 days before the start of the escalation of the Russian war in Ukraine. To assess the impact of the war on the dynamics of COVID-19, the model was used to calculate the forecast of cumulative new and fatal cases of COVID-19 in Germany in the first 30 days after the start of the escalation of the Russian war in Ukraine. Modeling showed that migration flows from Ukraine are not a critical factor in the growth of the dynamics of the incidence of COVID-19 in Germany, but they influenced the number of cases. The next stage of the study is the development of more complex models for a detailed analysis of population dynamics, identifying factors influencing the epidemic process in the context of the Russian war in Ukraine, and assessing their information content.
Diagnosis of cardiovascular diseases is an urgent task because they are the main cause of death for 32% of the world’s population. Particularly relevant are automated diagnostics using machine learning methods in the digitalization of healthcare and introduction of personalized medicine in healthcare institutions, including at the individual level when designing smart houses. Therefore, this study aims to analyze short 10-s electrocardiogram measurements taken from 12 leads. In addition, the task is to classify patients with suspected myocardial infarction using machine learning methods. We have developed four models based on the k-nearest neighbor classifier, radial basis function, decision tree, and random forest to do this. An analysis of time parameters showed that the most significant parameters for diagnosing myocardial infraction are SDNN, BPM, and IBI. An experimental investigation was conducted on the data of the open PTB-XL dataset for patients with suspected myocardial infarction. The results showed that, according to the parameters of the short ECG, it is possible to classify patients with a suspected myocardial infraction as sick and healthy with high accuracy. The optimized Random Forest model showed the best performance with an accuracy of 99.63%, and a root mean absolute error is less than 0.004. The proposed novel approach can be used for patients who do not have other indicators of heart attacks.