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Shifting energy peak load is a subject that plays a huge role in the currently changing energy market, where renewable energy sources no longer produce the exact amount of energy demanded.
Matching demand to supply requires behavior Changes on the customerside, which can be achieved by incentives suchas Real-Time-Pricing (RTP).
Various studies show that such incentives cannot be utilized without a complexity reduction, e.g., by smart home automation systems that inform the customer about possible savings or automatically schedule appliances to off-peak load phases.
We propose a probabilistic appliance usage prediction based on historical energy data that can be used to identify the times of day where an appliance will be used and therefore make load shift recommendations that suite the customer’s usage profile. A huge issue is how to provide a valid performance evaluation for this particular problem.
We will argue why the commonly used accuracy metric is not suitable, and suggest to use other metrics like the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) or F1-Score instead.
Safety assurance is a major challenge in the design of modern embedded systems that has become increasingly difficult in recent years. Growing system sizes and the rise of Cyber-Physical systems confront safety engineers with large sets of configurations to be analyzed. Current approaches are usually carried out at design time and do not address the need for automated assessments in the field. With Component Fault Trees (CFTs) there exists a component-based methodology that enables an efficient modular composition of safety artifacts. The combined model is a system-level CFT that can be analyzed by means of popular Fault Tree Analysis techniques that are widely accepted in the industry. However, when composing models, their interfacing elements must be connected manually which impedes the automation of the procedure. In this work, we introduce the notion of flow types that represent a particular kind of component interaction and define a taxonomy of related failure behavior. By annotating CFTs with types, a machine-readable vocabulary is provided that allows for an automated interconnection of their interfaces. This way, the automatic composition of models according to system architecture is enabled, allowing for automated safety assessments on system-level. We demonstrate the feasibility of our approach using an example ethylene vaporization unit.
The growing size and complexity of software in embedded systems poses new challenges to the safety assessment of embedded control systems. In industrial practice, the control software is mostly treated as a black box during the system's safety analysis. The appropriate representation of the failure propagation of the software is a pressing need in order to increase the accuracy of safety analyses. However, it also increase the effort for creating and maintaining the safety analysis models (such as fault trees) significantly. In this work, we present a method to automatically generate Component Fault Trees from Continuous Function Charts. This method aims at generating the failure propagation model of the detailed software specification. Hence, control software can be included into safety analyses without additional manual effort required to construct the safety analysis models of the software. Moreover, safety analyses created during early system specification phases can be verified by comparing it with the automatically generated one in the detailed specification phased.
The classical results of the binomial and negative binomial probability distribution are generalized by means of homogeneous Discrete Time Markov Chains to series of stochastically independent random trials. These have not only two possible outcomes but two groups of them -- different kinds of successes and failures with occurrence probabilities depending on the outcome of the previous trial. This generalization allows a uniform view of occupation time, first passage time and recurrence time. Our results are consequently derived and presented in matrix form, the probabilities as well as the moments. They can be applied to all Discrete Time Markov Chains, especially in computer capacity planning, performability and economics.