@masterthesis{Varma, type = {Bachelor Thesis}, author = {Varma, Soyjaudah}, title = {Analysis and Forecast of Tourism Market 2024: An application of Tourism Area Lifecycle Model to Mauritius Island}, school = {Hochschule Rhein-Waal}, abstract = {The study aims to address the gap in understanding the future of tourism in Mauritius, which leads to a lack of effective strategic and resource planning. This is achieved by finding the current and future direction of tourism of Mauritius based on the Tourism Area Lifecycle (TALC) model and performing an analysis to forecast the tourism market for year 2024. Data was collected from annual reports, budget speech reports and statistical reports from various Mauritian government official websites and newspaper research. The TALC model and time series statistical methods of forecasting were employed to understand tourism evolution stages and predict future tourist traffic in Mauritius. Results demonstrated that Mauritius is actually in a second Rejuvenation phase and can soon enter the Stagnation phase of the TALC model with a forecasted tourist arrival of approximately 31,857 by sea, 1,298,655 by air and on average 108,500 total monthly tourist arrivals by air by end of year 2024. The findings reflect the importance of sustainable and efficient tourism practices and strategic planning and provides a model for policy makers, tourism stakeholders, the Government and for other island destinations aiming to understand their tourism development and prepare for future challenges and opportunities in their tourism sector.}, language = {en} }