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This paper presents a convolutional neural network (CNN)which can be used for forecasting electricity load profiles 36 hours intothe future. In contrast to well established CNN architectures, the inputdata is one-dimensional. A parameter scanning of network parameters isconducted in order to gain information about the influence of the kernelsize, number of filters, and dense size. The results show that a goodforecast quality can already be achieved with basic CNN architectures.The method works not only for smooth sum loads of many hundredconsumers, but also for the load of apartment buildings
Um den Einfluss verschiedener Power-to-X-Verfahren auf die Transformation des deutschen Energiesystems und das Erreichen der Klimaschutzziele zu überprüfen, wurde ein sektorübergreifendes Energiesystemmodel entwickelt. Die daraus gewonnenen Ergebnisse zeigen: Für eine erfolgreiche Energiewende ist der Einsatz von Power-to-X in Zukunft unverzichtbar. Vor allem in Bereichen und Sektoren, in denen hohe Energiedichten erforderlich und nur wenig andere Optionen zur Defossilisierung vorhanden sind, werden Power-to-X-Technologien zwingend notwendig.
Investigation of running ductile fracture in gas transmission pipelines and the derivation of reliable crack arrest prediction methods belong to major topics in pipeline research. The yet available crack arrest criterion, known as the Battelle Two-Curve Method (BTCM), leads to reliable predictions up to grade X70 line pipe steels for which it has been validated. This includes specific limits in terms of mechanical properties, pressure and geometry. The application of this criterion to modern pipeline steels, i.e. especially grades X80 and beyond in combination with larger diameters and high pressure, has led to mispredictions of the BTCM. Hence, in order to ensure safe design of pipelines, new methods are required based on in depth knowledge and appropriate characterization of material resistance. This paper presents a procedure for the assessment of dynamic ductile fracture resistance based on combined experimental and numerical investigations. The procedure involves quasi-static and dynamic drop- weight tear testing (DWTT) on modified specimens with pre-fatigued crack for grades X65, X80 and X100 materials, and the application of cohesive zone (CZ) and Gurson-Tveergard-Needleman (GTN) models to describe ductile material damage. The damage model parameters are calibrated on basis of DWTT results and subsequently used to simulate dynamic crack propagation in a pipeline. The influence of material properties (strain hardening, toughness), pipe geometry, usage factor and decompression behaviour on ductile fracture propagation behaviour is studied and evaluated. The results will contribute to an enhanced understanding of major parameters controlling ductile fracture propagation and will help to establish a reliable procedure for safe design of new high-capacity pipelines with regard to crack arrest.
Analysis of dynamic ductile fracture propagation in pipeline steels: a damage-T IS A WELL-ESTABLISHED fact that the successful application of new generation of high-strength steel grades for long-distance gas transmission depends strongly on full understanding and appropriate characterization of fracture resistance. A damage mechanics approach has found to be a very promising tool in supporting the experimental characterization of ductile fracture propagation. The major advantage of this approach lies in the consideration of the influence of local stress and strain variables on the damage evolution and thus its capability to describe the fracture resistance of the pipelines with different stress triaxiality level by using the same set of parameters. However, the wider application of this approach has been limited due to the issues such as reliable determination of input parameters and required material properties, mesh size dependence, etc..
The objective of this paper is to characterize dynamic ductile fracture resistance of X65 and X80 pipeline materials and to demonstrate the potential of damage mechanics approach for the simulation of dynamic fracture propagation by using two damage models: (1) Cohesive Zone (CZ) model and (2) Gurson-Tvergaard-Needleman (GTN) model. In the first step, results from quasi-static and dynamic tensile tests are used to describe plasticity in terms of flow curves. The calibration of input parameters for both models is performed by using the load-deformation curves from quasi-static tests on non-standard drop-weight tear (DWT) specimens with pre-fatigued crack. b. In the next step, estimated damage model parameters are verified by means of the dynamic tests on the pressed and Chevron notch DWT specimens. Different amounts of crack growth are established by varying the drop height. The experimental fracture resistance is quantified in terms of J-integral at specific crack length. The numerical results are evaluated with respect to global load-deformation and fracture resistance behavior. Furthermore, damage simulations are applied for quantification of local stress conditions in order to identify the major factors controlling the crack propagation. The results reported here serve as a basis for better understanding of fracture performance in dependences of geometry and material properties.
Experiments and fracture modeling of high-strength pipelines for high and low stress triaxiality
(2012)
This paper provides results from a comprehensive study on mechanical characterization of high-strength pipeline steel, grade X100 using experimental and numerical methods. The material was characterized for anisotropic plasticity, fracture initiation for various states of stress, (pre-cracked) fracture toughness and uncracked ductility. The experimental program included tests on flat butterfly-shaped, central hole, notched and circular disk specimens for low stress triaxiality levels; as well as tests on round notched bar specimens and SENT fracture mechanics tests, for high values of stress triaxiality. This program covered a wide range of stress conditions and demonstrated its effect on the material resistance. Parallel to the experimental study, detailed numerical investigations were carried out to simulate all different experimental tests. Using an inverse method, a 3-parameter calibration was performed on the Modified Mohr-Coulomb (MMC) fracture model. Subsequently, the predictive capabilities of the MMC were evaluated by the comparison to the fracture toughness tests results, used extensively in the pipeline industry. The capabilities of the MIT fracture model have been demonstrated on an example of high strength offshore steel, X100. The outcome of this study was not only to provide, the overall characterization of the fracture behavior of this material as an example, but also to present the methodology on how to use the MMC model as a practical tool in pipeline design.
This paper focuses on the characterization of the fracture performance of X100 material in transition temperature region using both experimental and numerical methods. The ductile fracture has been analyzed using tests on round notched bar specimens and standard fracture mechanics tests performed at room temperature. In previous publications the damage model Gurson-Tvergaard-Needleman (GTN) has been applied and verified by existing experimental data to describe ductile fracture behavior. The brittle fracture and the fracture in temperature transition region have been studied by means of deep and shallow notched SENB specimens at two different temperatures T=- 80°C and -40°C. Besides elastic-plastic analyses to quantify constraint levels for different initial crack configurations at the onset of cleavage fracture, the brittle failure has been described using modified Beremin model. The influence of the stable crack growth on the cleavage failure probability in temperature transition region has been captured by coupling the ductile fracture model (GTN) with the modified Beremin model. Finally, examples have been presented for the practical application of the numerical results on the fracture assessment of the flawed high-strength pipelines.
Assessment of collapse resistance of UOE pipes – comparison of full-scale and ring collapse tests
(2014)
The worldwide growing energy demand with the exploration of new gas fields has promoted the development of high toughness seamless pipeline steels which should sustain the increasing demands resulting from the complex loading situations. One of the most important prerequisites for safe installation and operation of long distance gas transmission pipelines is the detailed knowledge and characterization of their fracture performance for specific applications. However, recent industry experience has revealed concerns related to the limitations and reliability of current test methods for brittle-to-ductile transition evaluation. Regarding the transition temperature evaluation, the critical issues involve Drop-Weight Tear Testing (DWTT) and full-scale West-Jefferson (WJ) test applied to the smaller pipes with diameter less than 500mm. The DWTT leads frequently to invalid results in terms of abnormal fracture appearance and inverse fracture occurrence. It is still not clear if this behavior is only owed to a testing effect, which material characteristics cause it and how far it reflects the full-scale behavior. Similar observations were made for the West-Jefferson tests, which could not be assessed in the standard manner either. Again, the question was towards testing effects and the behavior of the pipeline transporting gaseous media remains unanswered. Therefore, this paper aims at identifying open questions on basis of a literature study and own experimental results and showing possible ways forward in demonstrating safety in design against propagating fracture.
Fracture propagation control in gas transmission gas pipelines belongs to the major design requirements for safe operation at high internal pressures. However, the current tests such as Drop-Weight-Tear Test (DWTT) and full-scale West-Jefferson (WJ) test reach the limits of their applicability with respect to transition temperature evaluation for seamless quenched and tempered small diameter pipes reflecting nowadays alloying concepts related to mechanical properties. Hereby, different geometry and material effects are evident which might lead to misinterpretation and unreliability of testing results. This paper aims to discuss open issues addressed in the literature and in own experimental findings with respect to reliability and transferability of testing methods, fracture parameters and their representativeness of seamless quenched and tempered pipeline behavior. By applying damage mechanics approach, it is possible to quantify the prevailing stress state and thus to understand the mechanisms controlling specific fracture appearance (ductile or brittle). Furthermore, studies were performed with objective to quantify the effect of different parameters (geometry, material and loading) on the fracture performance of the pipeline. The results from these investigations will serve as a basis for a safe pipeline design against propagating fracture.
Challenges in fluid-structure modeling of crack propagation and arrest in modern steel pipelines
(2017)
Various numerical approaches have been developed in the last years aimed to simulate the ductile fracture propagation in pipelines transporting CO2 or natural gas. However, a reliable quantification of the influence of material plasticity on the fracture resistance is still missing. Therefore, more accurate description of the material plasticity on the ductile fracture propagation is required based on a suitable numerical methodology.
In this study, different plasticity and fracture models are compared regarding the ductile fracture propagation in X100 pipeline steel with the objective to quantify the influence of plasticity parameters on the fracture resistance. The plastic behavior of the investigated material is considered by the quadratic yield surface in conjunction with a non-associated quadratic plastic flow potential. The strain hardening can be appropriately described by the mixed Swift-Voce law. The simulations of ductile fracture are conducted by an uncoupled, modified Mohr-Coulomb (MMC) and the micromechanically based Gurson-Tvergaard-Needleman (GTN) models. In contract to the original GTN model, the MMC model is capable of describing ductile failure over wide range of stress states. Thus, ductile fracture resistance can be estimated for various load and fracture scenarios. Both models are used for the simulation of fracture propagation in DWTT and 3D pressurized pipe sections. The results from the present work can serve as a basis for establishing the correlation between plasticity parameters and ductile fracture propagation.
Fracture behavior of seamless pipeline material X65Q acc. to API 5L has been studied both experimentally and numerically at different loading conditions (quasi-static vs. dynamic) and temperatures. The recent findings have shown difficulties in applying well established methods for determination of transition behavior or prediction of ductile crack arrest for the new generation of high-toughness steels. The irregular fracture performance (e.g. so-called "abnormal inverse fracture" appearance, significant scattering in ductile-to-brittle-transition-temperature region, etc.) suggests that the influence of pipe dimensions, loading parameters, crack initiation resistance as well as testing procedure on the fracture behavior has been neither understood nor properly described. This work aims to shed light on these questions regarding the applicability of conventional methods and to better illuminate most relevant parameters affecting fracture behavior of high toughness steels. To achieve this goal, experimental data basis for analysis of fracture behavior in transition and upper shelf regime has been established by conducting quasi-static fracture mechanics tests and dynamic tests on Battelle Drop Weight Tear (BDWT or DWT) specimens at different temperatures. The evaluation of obtained test results in upper shelf has been additionally complemented by numerical simulation of damage behavior. The results highlight the influence of stress conditions on fracture behavior with reference to pipe dimensions and loading conditions and, subsequently, may be used as a basis for revision of existing design methods.
The fracture propagation and arrest control for pipelines transporting rich natural gases and high vapor pressure liquids is based on the Battelle Two-Curve Model (BTCM). Distinct limitations of this model were demonstrated for past and modern steels and gas mixtures. These can be related to the insufficient description of individual physical processes and interactions between the pipe material and transported mixture during the running ductile fracture. In the past, fluid-structure interaction (FSI) models enabled a more sophisticated, coupled analysis of the failure scenario. To quantify their capability of describing the multi-physical processes, the FSI models need to be verified by experimental data from full-scale burst tests (FSBT). Therefore, this paper deals with the simulation of five FSBTs from the literature on API grade X65 pipes with different pipe geometries, mixtures and initial conditions. The FSI is modeled by the coupled Euler-Lagrange (CEL) method. The modified Mohr-Coulomb (MMC) model is implemented in the CEL framework to describe the deformation and ductile fracture in the X65/L450 pipes. 3D Euler equations are used to calculate the mixture decompression with the GERG-2008 equation of state defining the volumetric behavior of a CO2-rich mixture, CH4 and H2. The extended model considers the effect of soil backfill on the pipe deformation and inertia. The numerical predictions agree well with the experimental findings in terms of the crack propagation speed and arrest length underlining the capability of the developed numerical tool.
As part of current design standards, the Battelle Two-Curve Model (BTCM) is still widely used to predict and secure ductile crack arrest in gas transmission pipelines. For modern linepipe steels and rich natural gases or CO2 mixtures, the BTCM might lead to incorrect predictions. On the one hand, it suffers from the insufficient description of the individual physical processes in the pipe material and fluid itself. Furthermore, the model does not account for fluid-structure-interaction (FSI) effects during simultaneous running-ductile fracture (RDF) and mixture decompression. Numerical FSI models allow for a more sophisticated, coupled analysis of the driving forces for the failure of pipelines. This paper deals with the development of an FSI model for the coupled prediction of 3D pressure profiles acting on the inner pipe wall during crack propagation. The coupled Euler-Lagrange (CEL) method is used to link the fluid and structure models. In a Lagrange formulation, the modified Bai-Wierzbicki (MBW) model describes the plastic deformation and ductile fracture as a function of the underlying stress/strain conditions. The fluid behavior is calculated in a 3D model space by Euler equations and the GERG-2008 reference equation of state (EOS). The coupled CEL model is used to predict the RDF in small-diameter pipe sections for different fluid mixtures. The calculated 3D pressure distributions ahead and behind the running crack tip (CT) significantly differ in axial and circumferential directions depending on the mixture composition. The predicted FSI between the pipe wall and fluid decompression in 3D CEL/FSI model provides reliable knowledge about the pressure loading of the pipeline during RDF.
Application of the modified Bai-Wierzbicki model for the prediction of ductile fracture in pipelines
(2019)
The complex mechanical and corrosive loads of modern pipeline systems transporting oil, natural gas and CO2 impose steadily increasing requirements on material properties. The majority of current design standards still limit the application of modern high toughness linepipe steels due to the simple specification of material requirements in terms of energy levels from Charpy impact or Battelle Drop-Weight-Tear (BDWT) tests. In consequence, research activities have been conducted recently aiming at developing modified or novel experimental methods for the characterization of the ductile fracture behavior. To quantify the effects of various parameters on fracture behavior and derive suitable correlations, it is necessary to accompany these activities by numerical simulations with appropriate ductile damage models. In this paper, the MBW model is applied to study the structural behavior of pipelines in ductile fracture regime. Due to its precise incorporation of the underlying load conditions, the damage model is successfully used to simulate the slant fracture behavior in Battelle Drop weight tear test specimens and pipe sections. In comparison to ductile damage models applied in former studies, namely the Gurson-Tvergaard-Needleman and Cohesive Zone model, the presented numerical methodology allows for a more detailed investigation of loading, material and geometry effects on fracture and crack arrest behavior of pipelines.
The process of engineering models of existing real-time system components is often difficult and time consuming, especially when legacy code has to be re-used or information about the exact timing behaviour is needed. In order to tackle this reverse engineering problem, we have developed the tool CoreTAna. CoreTAna derives an AUTOSAR compliant model of a real-time system by conducting dynamic analysis using trace recordings.
Motivated by the challenge of assessing the quality of reverse engineered models of real-time software, we present a novel mathematical measure for comparing trace recordings from embedded real-time systems regarding their temporal behaviour. We also introduce a benchmark framework based on this measure, for evaluating reverse engineering tools such as CoreTAna. This considers common system architectures and also includes randomly generated systems and three systems of industrial automotive projects. Finally, an industrial case study demonstrates other use cases of our measure, such as impact analysis.
Aufgrund der immer weiter anwachsenden Vernetzung der Stromnetze wird die Kommunikation zwischen der Leitstelle des Energieversorgers und den Infrastrukturkomponenten innerhalb eines Umspannwerks immer bedeutsamer. Dabei werden sowohl Steuerbefehle als auch Daten für Überwachungsfunktionen übertragen. In den aktuellen Netzwerkarchitekturen findet diese Kommunikation ohne eine kryptografische Absicherung statt, was einen Angriffspunkt für gezielte Attacken und damit eine potenzielle Gefährdung der Energieversorgung darstellt. Um solchen Angriffen in Zukunft entgegenzuwirken, wird das ES³M-Sicherheitsmodul entwickelt. Dieses soll in das Netzwerk zwischen den beiden Kommunikationspartnern eingesetzt werden und so den Datenverkehr absichern. Mithilfe einer Bedrohungsanalyse wurden Anforderungen abgeleitet, die neben kryptografischen Maßnahmen auch Themen wie funktionale Sicherheit und Langlebigkeit umfassen. Um diese zu erfüllen, wurde eine spezielle Systemarchitektur auf Basis einer Aufgabenteilung entworfen. Diese Architektur und korrespondierende Designentscheidungen werden präsentiert.
The performance of engineering design of high-strength steel pipelines has revealed the necessity to revise current design procedures. Therefore, an improved and detailed comprehension of fracture mechanisms and development of failure prediction tools are required in order to derive new design criteria. In last decades the most successful failure prediction tools for steel structures subjected to various type of loading can be encountered in the field of damage mechanics. This paper aims to describe ductile fracture behavior of high-strength steel pipelines by applying three different damage models, Gurson-Tvergaard-Needelman (GTN), Fracture Locus Curve (FLC) and Cohesive Zone (CZ). These models are evaluated regarding their capability to estimate ductile crack propagation in laboratory specimens and linepipe components without adjusting the calibrated parameters. It can be shown that appropriate parameter sets can be identified to reproduce load-deformation and fracture resistance curves accurately. The strain rate effect on the fracture behavior is examined by dynamic tests on the BDWT specimens. Finally, the shortcomings of the applied models are pointed out with the reference to possible extensions and modifications.
Die Energiewende führt zu neuen Herausforderungen für Verteilungsnetzbetreiber hinsichtlich der Er-bringung von Systemdienstleistungen, der Integration weiterer Erzeugungsanlagen und Lasten sowie der Gewährleistung einer hohen Versorgungssicherheit und normgerechten Spannungsqualität. Die De-ckung der auftretenden Blindleistungsbedarfe seitens der Netzbetriebsmittel, Verbraucher und Erzeu-gungsanlagen gewinnt durch den Wegfall der Großkraftwerke für Netzbetreiber zunehmend an Bedeu-tung. Das Projekt SyNErgie beschäftigt sich diesbezüglich mit der Entwicklung neuartiger Blindleis-tungsmanagementsysteme für Mittelspannungsnetze. Ziel ist es, das bisher ungenutzte, freie Blindleis-tungspotential betrieblicher Kompensationsanlagen und dezentraler Erzeugungsanlagen (allgemein: Blindleistungsquellen) zu nutzen, um die Blindleistungsänderungsfähigkeit eines Verteilungsnetzes zu erhöhen. Diese Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Entwicklung eines zentralen Blindleistungsregelsystems, bei dem Blindleistungsquellen auf Basis von „Optimal Power Flow“-Berechnungen über eine zentrale Recheninstanz angesteuert werden. Zum Einsatz kommt dabei ein Optimierungsalgorithmus, der auf Basis des aktuellen Netzzustandes (Spannungs- und Auslastungsreserven) und des aktuellen Blindleis-tungspotentials der Blindleistungsquellen einen bedarfsoptimalen Abruf koordiniert. Das zentrale Re-gelverfahren wird in Netzmodellen verschiedenartiger Mittelspannungsnetzgruppen und unterschiedli-cher Art und Anzahl von Blindleistungsquellen angewendet sowie im Hinblick auf variierende Zielvor-gaben und Randbedingungen evaluiert und diskutiert.
Automatisiertes Fahren stößt derzeit noch auf große Skepsis. Eine disruptive Strategie bei der Einführung (voll-)automatisierten Fahrens könnte daher auf fehlende Akzeptanz treffen. Um dem zu entgehen, laufen evolutionäre Strategien darauf hinaus, durch die Entwicklung adaptiver Fahrassistenzsysteme Vertrautheit, Vertrauen und damit Akzeptanz bei den prospektiven NutzerInnen zu schaffen. Erste Ergebnisse einer Pilotstudie lassen jedoch Zweifel an der Nachhaltigkeit dieser Strategie aufkommen.