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Codes of practice aim to assure structures have acceptable risks to the public and the minimum total costs over the working life of a design. However, current codified criteria for structural design correspond to a broad range of reliability levels, specified for dissimilar reference periods even though their recalculation for different periods is uncertain due to unknown dependence of failure events in time. In this contribution, target reliability levels are specified on the basis of probabilistic risk optimization considering the objective function as a sum of various costs including effects of time to failure and discounting. A case study presents probabilistic optimization of the roof of a stadium for 4,000 spectators and illustrates the effect of the considered input parameters. Failure consequences and relative cost of safety measure are shown to be major factors affecting the optimum reliability level. Less important factors are the discount rate and working life. Large uncertainty in failure cost estimates seems to have only a marginal effect on derived optimum reliability levels.
This contribution addresses the optimisation of monitoring and decision-making criteria regarding the future use of structures and the related implementation in modern guidelines. A summary of the state-of-practice reveals deficiencies that are addressed by prospective guidance for the anticipated updates of standards, providing a general methodology to obtain cost-optimal decisions using limit state design, probabilistic reliability analysis and cost estimates. The implementation of a draft guideline and the corresponding risk-based approach are illustrated in a full-scale case study dealing with the roof of a stadium located in Northern Italy. The results demonstrate the potential of using monitoring systems and probabilistic reliability analysis in order to support decisions regarding safety measures such as snow removal, or temporary closure of the stadium.
Risk and reliability criteria are well established in many industrial sectors such as the offshore, chemi- cal or nuclear industries. Comparative risk thresholds have been specified to allow a responsible organization or regulator to identify activities, which impose an acceptable level of risk concerning the participating individuals, or society as a whole. The scope of this contribution is to present target reliability criteria based on acceptable human safety levels. Application of theoretical principles is illustrated by examples of railway engineering structures. Initially it is shown how civil engineering structures for which human safety criteria play a role are classified according to Eurocodes. Examples include bridges, tunnels or station buildings. The general concepts for risk acceptance are then briefly reviewed, particularly in their relation to the target reliability criteria. The distinction between the two types of criteria is made: group risk and the acceptance criterion based on the Life Quality Index LQI approach introduced by ISO 2394:2015. The differences between the criteria for new and existing structures are discussed. The application is illustrated by an example of a bridge crossing an important railway line. It appears that while benefits and costs of a private stakeholder or public authority are reflected by economic optimisation, the society should define the limits for human safety to achieve uniform risks for various daily-life activities and across different industrial sectors. Keywords: group risk, human safety, individual risk, Life Quality Index, railway, risk acceptance, structure, target reliability
The target reliability levels recommended in various national and international documents for new and existing structures are quite different and vaguely related to types of structures and consequences of failure. The optimum reliability levels can be obtained by considering the total expected cost of the structure over the design working life. Indicative values of reliability indexes are given in EN 1990 (2002) for two reference periods, 1 year and 50 years. The annual target reliability levels βt1 are presently indicated in the recent draft of EN 1990 (2017) without any explicit link to different reference period or design working life. When determining the target reliability index for the reference period of n years that generally differs from the design working life, correlation of failure events in subsequent years should be taken into account. Considering the annual reliability index β1 an approximate formula is proposed for the reliability index βnk related to the reference period of n years and independence interval of k years. The independence interval k ≤ n corresponds to the mean time period in years for which the failures in subsequent periods of k years are assumed to be mutually independent. The operational use of the proposed formula is clarified by practical tools. The reliability differentiation reflected in consequence classes is also discussed in this contribution.
This paper addresses the optimisation of monitoring and decision-making criteria regarding the future use of structures. The current state of practice in standards and reliability framework are initially summarised. A general methodology for obtaining cost-optimal decisions is then presented on the basis of limit state design, probabilistic reliability analysis and cost estimates. The implementation of the risk-based approach is illustrated in a case study dealing with the roof of a stadium located in northern Italy. As the roof fails to comply with the requirements of the Eurocodes, the installation of a permanent monitoring system is recommended to allow for a real-time reliability assessment. The results demonstrate the potential of monitoring systems and probabilistic reliability analysis for supporting decisions regarding safety measures such as snow removal or temporary closure of the stadium, as well as reflecting the need to implement the discussed procedures in future standards.
Buildings are major long lasting assets of the society and business enterprises and form a significant part of infrastructure management. They require continual maintenance and in many cases they can become inap-propriate for their original purpose due to obsolescence and are demolished. The present contribution ex-plores the obsolescence of buildings and in particular the definitions of obsolescence, the related influenc-ing factors and the associated uncertainties. Thereby definitions of the obsolescence rate based on the physi-cal and useful (service) life are clarified. The experienced useful life of buildings in Finland, Germany and North America is statistically analysed, utilizing available databases, and comparisons with the design (minimum) working life specified in standards are made. The probability of not exceeding the required min-imum service life is evaluated and discussed. Whereas many factors affecting the obsolescence rate are be-yond the control of civil engineers, particular attention needs to be paid to cases where the service life of the structure is determined by physical aspects related to deterioration. These cases are identified and recom-mendations to improve structural design are offered. The service life and the related renewal rate is influ-encing the risk acceptance criteria as given in ISO 2394. Such criteria are derived on the basis of economic optimization and the LQI marginal safety costs principle. A statistical model for the renewal rate is obtained and its influence on the target reliability is investigated for a representative failure limit state. The influence of the obsolescence rate is quantified and critically disputed.
The assessment of existing infrastructures in the energy sector is of great economic significance worldwide. Fossil power stations are reaching their design service life and rational decisions concerning extensions of service life, maintenance and replacements of devices should be based on updated information of the actual conditions of the energy devices and their components, and on cost-benefit analysis using risk analysis and probabilistic optimisation procedures.
The contribution provides an integrated framework for probabilistic reliability and risk assessment of existing energy production units considering availability and human safety criteria. An extensive case study focused on risks of an energy production unit in a fossil power station is provided to support practical applications. A Bayesian network is thereby implemented to assess the risks of the selected production unit. Special emphasis is given to the input data consisting of failure rates obtained from recorded data and expert judgements. The influence of uncertainties in the considered performance indicators on the availability of the unit is analysed. It is shown that a reasonably simplified framework can provide a valuable assessment of the influence of individual devices and their components on availability and societal risk, identifying thus the major risk contributors. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Masonry structures were built by various techniques using different materials, the properties of which exhibit a considerable scatter dependent on periods of construction and region-specific conditions. For historic structures with a heritage value, various non- or minor-destructive tests (NDTs) are commonly applied, while the application of destructive tests (DTs) is minimized. The contribution is based on investigations of 15 historic stone and clay brick masonry structures, for which NDT strengths of masonry units are verified by DTs. The proposed operational approach makes it possible to account for statistical uncertainty due to a limited number of DTs used to calibrate NDTs.
Environmental and climate change is a global issue that will and has already impacted the frequency and intensity of natural hazards in many regions throughout the world. Consequently, the actions on structures will be changing and present design practices will need to be adapted to provide for reliable structures with service lifetimes spanning over decades and centuries. A submitted review of present environmental and climate change information is focused on the distinct, but complementary climatic conditions of Central Europe and South Africa. An outline of the basis of structural design accounting for extreme wind and snow loads is presented and recommendations for future risk-based design procedures are discussed.
Issues to consider include:
a) use of extreme value models;
b) implementation of changes in distribution parameters to obtain extremes with long return periods;
c) consideration of the rate of the change.
The example of a representative structure illustrates the effects of climatic actions on structural reliability. It appears that uncertainties related to the lack of observations hinder drawing strong conclusions concerning appropriate modifications of design procedures due to environmental and climate change. Uncertainties in the prediction of environmental and climate change have a direct bearing on optimal levels of reliability and the subsequent derivation of design values.