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Bayesian network application for the risk assessment of existing energy production units

  • The assessment of existing infrastructures in the energy sector is of great economic significance worldwide. Fossil power stations are reaching their design service life and rational decisions concerning extensions of service life, maintenance and replacements of devices should be based on updated information of the actual conditions of the energy devices and their components, and on cost-benefit analysis using risk analysis and probabilistic optimisation procedures. The contribution provides an integrated framework for probabilistic reliability and risk assessment of existing energy production units considering availability and human safety criteria. An extensive case study focused on risks of an energy production unit in a fossil power station is provided to support practical applications. A Bayesian network is thereby implemented to assess the risks of the selected production unit. Special emphasis is given to the input data consisting of failure rates obtained from recorded data and expert judgements. The influence of uncertainties in the considered performance indicators on the availability of the unit is analysed. It is shown that a reasonably simplified framework can provide a valuable assessment of the influence of individual devices and their components on availability and societal risk, identifying thus the major risk contributors. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Metadaten
Author:Miroslav SýkoraORCiDGND, Jana Markova, Dimitris DiamantidisORCiDGND
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2017.09.006
Parent Title (English):Reliability Engineering & System Safety
Publisher:Elsevier
Document Type:Article
Language:English
Year of first Publication:2018
Release Date:2022/03/29
Tag:Availability; Bayesian networks; Decision-making; FRAMEWORK; Failure probability; Optimization; Production unit; Risk analysis; SYSTEMS; Societal risk; Uncertainties; design
Volume:169
Issue:January
First Page:312
Last Page:320
Institutes:Fakultät Bauingenieurwesen
Begutachtungsstatus:peer-reviewed
research focus:Energie und Mobilität
Licence (German):Keine Lizenz - Es gilt das deutsche Urheberrecht: § 53 UrhG