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Risk Based Design of Infrastructures under Extreme Actions due to Environmental Change

  • Environmental and climate change is a global issue that will and has already impacted the frequency and intensity of natural hazards in many regions throughout the world. Consequently, the actions on structures will be changing and present design practices will need to be adapted to provide for reliable structures with service lifetimes spanning over decades and centuries. A submitted review of present environmental and climate change information is focused on the distinct, but complementary climatic conditions of Central Europe and South Africa. An outline of the basis of structural design accounting for extreme wind and snow loads is presented and recommendations for future risk-based design procedures are discussed. Issues to consider include: a) use of extreme value models; b) implementation of changes in distribution parameters to obtain extremes with long return periods; c) consideration of the rate of the change. The example of a representative structure illustrates the effects of climatic actions on structural reliability. It appears that uncertainties related to the lack of observations hinder drawing strong conclusions concerning appropriate modifications of design procedures due to environmental and climate change. Uncertainties in the prediction of environmental and climate change have a direct bearing on optimal levels of reliability and the subsequent derivation of design values.

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Metadaten
Author:Miroslav SýkoraORCiDGND, Milan Holický, Árpád Rózsás, Celeste Barnardo-Viljoen, Johan Verster Retief, Dimitris DiamantidisORCiDGND
Parent Title (English):Life-cycle of engineering systems: emphasis on sustainable civil infrastructure, Symposium of the International Association for Life-Cycle Civil Engineering (IALCCE), 2016, Delft
Publisher:Taylor & Francis
Document Type:conference proceeding (article)
Language:English
Year of first Publication:2018
Release Date:2022/12/07
Institutes:Fakultät Bauingenieurwesen
research focus:Gebäude und Infrastruktur
Licence (German):Keine Lizenz - Es gilt das deutsche Urheberrecht: § 53 UrhG