TY - RPRT A1 - Bresinsky, Markus A1 - Petzke, Jan T1 - Russland 2030+ BT - Wege in eine ungewisse Zukunft N2 - Der Bericht "Russland 2030+: Wege in eine ungewisse Zukunft" präsentiert mögliche Szenarien für die politische, wirtschaftliche, militärische und gesellschaftliche Entwicklung Russlands bis über das Jahr 2030 hinaus. Er basiert auf einem interdisziplinären Ansatz und verwendet Foresight-Methoden, darunter eine PMESII-Analyse. Diese wurde von Studierenden der OTH Regensburg unter Leitung von Prof. Dr. Markus Bresinsky in Zusammenarbeit mit Vertretern der Bundeswehr durchgeführt. Der Bericht stellt fünf Zukuntsbilder vor, die sich jeweils auf unterschiedliche Schlüsselfaktoren und Annahmen stützen: von einer Fortführung der autoritären Herrschaft (Putin's Tsardom) über gewaltsame Machtwechsel (Moscow Meltdown) bis hin zur zunehmenden Abhängigkeit von China (Dragon eats Bear). Ziel der Untersuchung ist es, mögliche Entwicklungen und deren Implikationen für internationale Akteure aufzuzeigen, um eine fundierte Entscheidungsgrundlage für vorausschauendes Handeln zu schaffen. Y1 - 2024 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:898-opus4-78395 PB - OTH Regensburg ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Neugart, Sandrine A1 - Bresinsky, Markus T1 - Situational Awareness of Critical Infrastructures at the Local Level – Fostering Resilience Through Accessible Method-based Analysis T2 - Critical Infrastructure Protection and Resilience Europe (CIPRE) 2022, Bukarest (Rumänien) N2 - Critical infrastructure protection and resilience start at the local level. While laws and regulations provide the necessary frameworks within which the various stakeholders act, little effort has been made to bring together local and regional actors in order to facilitate a shared understanding of critical infrastructure (CI) risks and security. Such a common analysis, however, is essential to identifying local vulnerabilities, understanding their key drivers as well as their interdependencies, and ultimately, to adapting strategies which overall contribute to improving the security of KRITIS in the region. This paper outlines a best practice approach to analyzing risks associated with KRITIS and their interdependencies at the local level. It addresses frequently overlooked issues such as bringing together different stakeholders whilst making the discussion accessible and comprehensible to everyone. It also deals with analytic questions regarding the development of a methods-based approach to situational awareness, ranging from defining appropriate categories of thinking to mitigating the impact of potential biases influencing the different thought processes. In order to advance these ideas, the analysis is based on thorough research as well as first-hand experience from running local workshops for stakeholders of KRITIS. Overall, this paper seeks to develop a format which encourages action among KRITIS stakeholders at the local level. It approaches critical infrastructures from a system thinking perspective, whilst linking intellectual accessibility with the rigor of academic analysis. Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:898-opus4-55676 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Bresinsky, Markus A1 - Hager, Eva A1 - Xanthos, George T1 - ChatGPT for futures: how large language models can support the development of future scenarios using the Cone of Plausibility T2 - CCEW SYMPOSIUM 2024: Predictive Synergies: Crisis Early Warning & Foresight, 19. und 20. September 2024, München N2 - Recently, large language models (LLMs), such as the “Chat Generative Pre-trained Transformer”, commonly known as ChatGPT, are substantially impacting the world of (big) data analytics and artificial intelligence. This paper explores how ChatGPT-4 can be used to support the development of future scenarios using the Cone of Plausibility method. The most recent version ChatGPT 4.0 differs from its predecessors in that it can now access real-time data to generate its responses. This makes it an attractive tool for intelligence analysts, who are faced with the permanent challenge of having to sift through large amounts of data whilst also providing actionable products in a timely manner. Previous versions of ChatGPT were prone to errors such as making up information. But what if, using the right prompts, version 4.0 could become a useful sparring partner for developing future scenarios? In this study, we will ask ChatGPT 4.0 to generate sets of plausible future scenarios for “Russia 2035+” based on previously specified key drivers and assumptions. The LLM’s potential for error is reduced because it is not working with hypotheses that it has generated itself. This could turn ChatGPT into a quick-thinking sparring partner for imagining varieties of future scenarios, supporting out-of-the box thinking and further minimising cognitive biases. To evaluate the reliability and accuracy of the results generated by ChatGPT, we will use the VV&A concept developed by the US Department of Defence. According to this concept, credibility in an intelligence product is rooted in the verification, validation and accreditation of its analysis. This process is routinely followed by every intelligence analyst. We will have found out to which extent and under which circumstances ChatGPT 4.0 can credibly support the development of future scenarios. Y1 - 2024 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:898-opus4-77811 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Reusner, Florian A1 - Pöhner, Miriam A1 - Bresinsky, Markus T1 - The Joint Effort Workshop as a tool for Knowledge Management and competence development T2 - 5th International Conference on Higher Education Advances (HEAd'19): 26.06.2019 - 28.06.2019, Valencia N2 - Cybersecurity is a complex global phenomenon where the risk for individuals, organisation and the society at large are at risk. These risks need to be in focus and solutions for the prevention and developing countermeasures. In this paper, we describe the Joint Effort Workshop as an approach to raise awareness to these threads and the possibility to generate and exchange knowledge between students and experts. We conclude that mechanisms for systematic response to attacks need the developed technical requirements, but foremost human behaviour, knowledge and resilience to response to risks, which can be experienced through the collaborative environment of the Joint Effort Workshop KW - Collaborative Learning KW - Critical Infrastructure KW - Cybersecurity KW - Knowledge Management KW - Organizational Learning KW - Virtual Collaboration Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:898-opus4-26973 SN - 9788490486610 PB - Universitat Politècnica València CY - Valencia ER - TY - GEN A1 - Bresinsky, Markus T1 - Strategic Forecasting with Machine Learning for Geopolitical Analysis Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:898-opus4-25103 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Bresinsky, Markus A1 - Schroeder, Johanna A1 - Viscardi, Valerio T1 - Asymmetry in Trust Building – different perspectives in gains and losses explained via Prospect Theory T2 - Common Effort Conference, The Hague: 19 – 22 October 2020 N2 - Building trust within conflicts situations is a required process to establish a suitable environment for peace keeping and state building processes. However, it remains unclear what are the best ways to foster trusts between actors in a conflict environment. This study draws insights from the literature on trust and from Kahneman’s Prospect Theory to analyse the decision-making dynamics of the actors involved in a conflict and how these dynamics could affect the trust levels between those actors. To this purpose, the fourfold pattern of preferences I applied to a thought experiments where opposing actors in a conflict in the Sahel face the decision to accept or refuse a peace agreement when either one of the two actors face huge gains or catastrophic losses. The main findings is that, in those extreme situations, the actors involved tend to take unnational decisions that undermine the trust building process in the country. Therefore, it would be recommendable to boost situations where actors are negotiating in a more balanced environment. To this purpose, further research should be conducted on the ways to create such suitable environment for trust building. Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:898-opus4-24778 SP - 1 EP - 9 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Bresinsky, Markus A1 - Schroeder, Johanna A1 - Viscardi, Valerio T1 - Strategic Forecasting with Machine Learning for Regional Geopolitical Analysis T2 - Η Περιφερειακή Επιστήμη, το μέλλον της και οι προκλήσεις στα πεδία της έρευνας και της εφαρμογής : 21ο Επιστημονικό Συνέδριο του Συνδέσμου Ελλήνων Περιφερειολόγων Ελληνικό Μεσογειακό Πανεπιστήμιο, Ηράκλειο Κρήτης, 16-17 Οκτωβρίου 2020 - Challenges for the Future of Regional Science: Research and Applications; 21st Conference: Heraklion, Crete, Oktober 2020 N2 - Strategic forecasting of regional geopolitical development is important for early warning and contingency planning. Open source data and machine learning can help to identify indicators for effective scenario development. Using data of the Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI) and the machine learning software Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis (WEKA), this paper gives an insight into the generation of a decision tree to provide indicators for forecasting regional development across parts of Northern and Western Africa. Results show that machine learning with open source data can support redefining indicator development but does not replace critical thinking. Y1 - 2020 UR - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1o2qAxcnq5srRr8r8okibHWwb4O0c69Oz/view SN - 978-618-00-2351-0 SP - 267 EP - 276 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bresinsky, Markus T1 - Understanding Hybrid Warfare as Asymmetric Conflict : Systemic Analysis by Safety, Security and Certainty JF - On-line Journal Modelling the New Europe N2 - The emergence of innovative methods and operations in asymmetric conflicts as for example unidentifiable soldiers during the Crimean conflict in 2014 or sophisticated cyberattack against Estonia in 2007 was a trigger for both analysts and scholars to rethink scientific concepts of asymmetric conflict. With introduction of the concept 'hybrid warfare' a new systematic element was established in scientific research. Nevertheless, the concept is discussed rather controversially and often its scientific value is questioned. Most of the literature describes the empirical phenomena of hybrid warfare, but does not provide a theoretical based argumentation. This paper addresses the neglected aspect of systemic analysis by focusing on vulnerability of modern societies and outlines a concept based on the theoretical idea of safety, security and certainty to grasp the underlying driving factors of new forms and methods in asymmetric conflicts. The analysis presented here shows that sociology and system engineering have already developed valuable conceptual definitions of safety, security and certainty that can be used for the analysis of asymmetric conflicts. The missing link, closed by this paper, was an interdisciplinary approach to integrate these concepts into an analysis framework. The findings indicated that the new forms of asymmetric conflicts can be understood as a concise and precise analysis of systemic weaknesses of nation states and their societies. Still, Western European nations focus their security policy mainly on past challenges of war and peace. Therefore, societies of these nations remain highly vulnerable to safety threats and uncertainty. The presented theoretical framework supported this result and should, therefore, be of value to analysts and scientists alike aiming to identify the underlying systemic factors of innovative asymmetric conflict. KW - Certainty KW - Hybrid warfare KW - safety KW - Security KW - Systemic analysis KW - Theoretical framework Y1 - 2016 UR - https://www.proquest.com/scholarly-journals/understanding-hybrid-warfare-as-asymmetric/docview/1872206522/se-2 IS - 21 SP - 29 EP - 51 PB - Babes-Bolyai University ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Bresinsky, Markus A1 - Willner, Sophia ED - Brooks, Anthony L. ED - Brooks, Eva Irene T1 - GLOBE - Digital Literacy and Organizational Learning by Scenario-Driven Exercises T2 - Interactivity, Game Creation, Design, Learning, and Innovation: 8th EAI International Conference, ArtsIT 2019, and 4th EAI International Conference, DLI 2019: Aalborg, Denmark, November 6-8, 2019, Proceedings N2 - Due to rapid technological development and fast-changing working environments, organizations active in such context find themselves facing internal change and adaption processes. Originally prominent among start-up or IT-companies, the use of management concepts to steer such change processes and to increase efficiency also spread among humanitarian organizations preoccupied with crisis management. In this regard, concepts retrieved from the domain of Organization Development offer a great potential to facilitate change processes and to enhance learning among practitioners. The notions of Learning Organization and Quality Management are combined with the theory of Argyris and Schön’s Levels of Learning. This combination then serves as a theoretical decision-making base used in a simulation game at the University of Applied Sciences OTH Regensburg. Within this scenario-driven exercise, Quality Management, virtual collaboration and digital skills are trained. During the simulation game, participants are encouraged to think critically, to utilize new technologies and to apply their problem-solving skills to real-life examples, which ultimately aims at preparing students for a dynamic working environment within the era of digitization. KW - Deming cycle KW - Learning organization KW - Organization development KW - Simulation games KW - Situational awareness KW - Virtual Collaboration Y1 - 2020 SN - 978-3-030-53293-2 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-53294-9_51 SP - 671 EP - 682 PB - Springer International Publishing CY - Cham ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Bresinsky, Markus A1 - Willner, Sophia ED - Brooks, Anthony L. ED - Brooks, Eva Irene T1 - GLOBE - Cognitive and Social Competence Development by Virtual Collaboration and Simulation Games T2 - Interactivity, Game Creation, Design, Learning, and Innovation. 8th EAI International Conference, ArtsIT 2019, and 4th EAI International Conference, DLI 2019, Aalborg, Denmark, November 6-8, 2019, Proceedings N2 - This paper first examines a variety of conceptual contemporary challenges and cognitive shortcomings of public policy makers, entrepreneurs and other practitioners in Germany as a knowledge-based economy. Systems thinking, digital competencies and several modern leadership skills are identified as possibilities to meet contemporary challenges in fast changing and complex environments. Modern leadership skills and promising working styles imply the ability to manage agile processes, flexibility and diversity, and the modus operandi as self-organizing networks. After that, the simulation game GLOBE Exercise at the OTH Regensburg is introduced as an innovative and transformative learning method. In its concept, the GLOBE Exercise combines virtual collaboration with Action Learning, and thus contributes to skills development and transfer both concerning digital competencies and analytical skills. KW - Action learning KW - ICT Simulation games KW - Interactive and collaborative learning KW - Leadership Digitization KW - Problem-based learning KW - Systems thinking KW - Virtual Collaboration Y1 - 2019 SN - 978-3-030-06133-3 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-06134-0_37 SP - 331 EP - 342 PB - Springer International Publishing CY - Cham ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Bresinsky, Markus A1 - Detje, Frank A1 - Littschwager, Martin ED - Badke-Schaub, Petra ED - Hofinger, Gesine ED - Lauche, Kristina T1 - Militär: Handeln in komplexen Problemlagen T2 - Human Factors: Psychologie sicheren Handelns in Risikobranchen Y1 - 2012 SN - 978-3-642-19886-1 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-19886-1_15 SP - 263 EP - 274 PB - Springer ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Bresinsky, Markus A1 - Vorderwestner, Anna A1 - Sünderhauf, Elena T1 - GLOBE Tabletop - Capability Development through Pre-Exercise Learning for Humanitarian Missions T2 - 10th International Conference on Higher Education Advances (HEAd’24), June 18, 2024 – June 21, 2024, València N2 - Simulation exercises play a significant role in training for humanitarian missions and provide suitable space for appropriate preparation of humanitarian personnel. It was observed that participants in the GLOBE simulation, a humanitarian crisis simulation exercise, lacked fundamental knowledge concerning structure and process organization, situational awareness, and complex planning tasks. Thus, this paper explores the concept of capability development through pre-exercise learning, suggests improvements of the efficacy and effectiveness of learning for individuals engaged in humanitarian mission simulations, and provides implications for improving the overall effectiveness and outcomes of simulation exercises. The conceptualization of pre-exercise learning with gamification and tabletop exercise elements prior to participation in the simulation exercise is expected to lead to enhanced capability development during the simulation of humanitarian missions. KW - Pre-exercise learning KW - Tabletop KW - Simulation games KW - Gamification KW - Crisis management KW - Humanitarian mission Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.4995/HEAd24.2024.17180 SN - 2603-5871 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Bresinsky, Markus A1 - Strat, Francesca Elena ED - Pomykala, Marta ED - Oleksiewicz, Izabela T1 - ChatGPT supporting intelligence analysis in strategic forecasting T2 - Zagrożenia i wyzwania bezpieczeństwa w cyberprzestrzeni Y1 - 2024 UR - https://oficyna.prz.edu.pl/fcp/JGBUKOQtTKlQhbx08SlkTUgxQX2o8DAoHNiwFE1xVTH5SFVZpCFghUHcKVigEQUw/18/public/otwarty-dostep/2024/monogr-2024-pomykala-oleksiewicz-dost-otw.pdf SP - 231 EP - 258 PB - Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Rzeszowskiej CY - Rzeszów ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Bresinsky, Markus A1 - Reusner, Florian T1 - GLOBE – Learn and Innovate Digitization by a Virtual Collaboration Exercise and Living Lab T2 - Interactivity, Game Creation, Design, Learning, and Innovation. 6th International Conference, ArtsIT 2017, and Second International Conference, DLI 2017, Heraklion, Crete, Greece, October 30–31, 2017, Proceedings N2 - This paper presents an advanced interactive learning platform .dot that implements the GLOBE exercise, using innovative information and communication technologies to enhance learning and development of management and leadership skills in a complex organizational setting. GLOBE on the one hand focuses on competences around ICT and virtual collaboration, and on the other hand on digital transformation, technologies and tools at higher education institutions. By this applied science, learning and developing on the real-world platform, analysis and drive of digital innovation and transformation can be fostered. The main goal is to co-create knowledge and solutions in the following focused subjects: Management and leadership of multidisciplinary, multinational and multicultural virtual and real collaboration in a complex organizational environment. GLOBE uses real world scenarios (e.g. United Nations mission) and involves real world actors. This comprehensive educational approach should enhance learning techniques and leverage learning progress with hands-on experiences and applied science in the context of ICT and virtual collaboration, and the embodied dynamics of behavior to support innovation and development. KW - Digitization KW - Experiential learning KW - Human factors KW - ICT KW - Interactive and collaborative learning KW - Living Lab KW - Open innovation KW - Problem-based learning KW - Virtual collaboration Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-76908-0_26 SP - 273 EP - 281 PB - Springer Nature ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bresinsky, Markus A1 - Fillenberg, Barbara T1 - Krisen, Katastrophen und Konflikte JF - Hebammen Wissen N2 - Hebammen als Akteurinnen im Bevölkerungsschutz In Deutschland folgt der Bevölkerungsschutz einer komplexen Struktur, die sich größtenteils auch auf das Rettungswesen stützt. Doch die wertvolle Ressource Hebammentätigkeit wurde dabei bisher nicht mitgedacht. Y1 - 2025 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s43877-025-1335-x VL - 6 IS - 4 SP - 24 EP - 27 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Bresinsky, Markus A1 - Brischar, Jule T1 - Between association and dissociation : the legitimacy politics of CIMIC experimentation N2 - NATO’s Concept Development and Experimentation (CD&E) works well for discrete technologies but is ill-suited to civil–military cooperation (CIMIC), where the ‘capability’ at stake is an interorganisational relationship. Drawing on regime-complex theory and organisational sociology, this paper argues that willingness to engage in joint CIMIC capability development hinges on legitimacy rather than technical utility. A legitimacy-scale metaphor captures the trade-off: functional gains from collaboration load one side; identity risks, such as threats to neutrality, autonomy, or safety, load the other. Three ideal-type cases test the framework. In stabilisation missions, humanitarian neutrality is vital, the scale tips toward identity risk, and co-creation remains siloed. In sudden-onset disasters, shared life-saving objectives reduce identity costs, functional incentives dominate, and integrated trials flourish. Territorial- and collective-defence scenarios occupy the middle ground: acute threat perception opens selective, often low-profile windows for cooperation, yet unresolved legal and reputational questions still temper overt collaboration. The analysis yields five practical lessons. First, legitimacy must be treated as a primary design variable. Second, the optimal depth of cooperation is context specific. Third, legitimacy-sensitive ‘safe-to-fail’ spaces – wargames, living labs, tabletop exercises – lower entry barriers. Fourth, structured reflection on legitimacy exposes red lines early and refines future joint efforts. Fifth, incremental processes can build trust and gradually relax legitimacy constraints. Recognising legitimacy as both constraint and resource allows practitioners to design CIMIC co-creation – and eventual experimentation – that is technically sound, politically acceptable, and ethically sustainable. KW - CIMIC KW - NATO KW - Legitimacy KW - Co-creation KW - Experimentation KW - Dissociation Y1 - 2025 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:898-opus4-85627 UR - https://www.cimic-coe.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/acaCIMICs_publication.pdf PB - CCOE ER -