TY - BOOK A1 - Rösl, Gerhard A1 - Seitz, Franz A1 - Tödter, Karl-Heinz T1 - Besser ohne Bargeld? – Gesamtwirtschaftliche Wohlfahrts-verluste der Bargeldabschaffung N2 - To broaden the operational scope of monetary policy, several authors suggest cash abolishment as an appropriate means of breaking through the zero lower bound. The key question in this respect is: What are the costs of such a proposal? We argue that the welfare costs of bypassing the zero lower bound can be dealt with analytically and empirically by assuming negative interest rates on cash holdings. Adopting a money-in-the-utility-function (MIU) model, we measure the welfare loss in terms of theamount needed to compensate consumers (compensated variation), and as excess burden (deadweight loss) imposed on the economy. Firstly, we gauge the welfare effects of abolishing cash, both, for the Euro area and for Germany, and we perform several robustness checks. Secondly, we broaden the analysis by taking into account the liquidity services of assets included in the monetary aggregates M1 and M3, and we contrast the results for the year 2015 with those for the pre-crisis period 2005. Our findings suggest that the welfare losses of negative interest rates incurred by consumers and society are large, notably if implemented in a low interest rate environment. Imposing a negative interest rate of 3 percent on cash holdings and reducing the interest on all assets included in M3 creates a deadweight loss of € 62bn for euro area and of €18bn for Germany. The annual compensation required by consumers in the euro area as well as in Germany is equivalent to 2.2 percent of GDP or about €700 per capita. Thus, stepping into deep negative interest rates turns out to be a very costly economic experiment, leaving aside the potential risks and negative side effects of protracted and intensified unconventional monetary policy. T3 - REGENSBURG PAPERS IN MANAGEMENT AND ECONOMICS - 1 KW - zero lower bound KW - cash abolishment KW - negative interest rates KW - welfare loss KW - compensated variation KW - deadweight loss Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:898-opus4-7937 SN - 978-3-96256-000-3 CY - Regensburg ER - TY - BOOK A1 - Rösl, Gerhard A1 - Seitz, Franz T1 - SARS-Cov-2 und Bargeld: Wie ein Virus die weltweite Bargeldnachfrage fördert N2 - Wir zeigen, dass die gängige These, Bargeld würde wegen des zunehmenden Einsatzes elektronischer Zahlungsmittel generell immer stärker an Bedeutung verlieren, sowohl im weltweiten Maßstab als auch in den Emissionsländern der international nachfragten Sorten(USD, EUR,CHF, GBPund JPY) als klar widerlegt angesehen werden kann.Besonderes Augenmerk legen wir dabeiauf die Entwicklung der Bargeldnachfrage in Krisenphasen. Hierunterscheiden wir zwischen drei verschiedenen Typen von Krisen (technologische Krisen, Finanzmarktkrisen, Naturkatastrophen) und untersuchen jeweils die krisenbedingte Nachfrage nach großen und kleinen Denominationen von Banknotenseit 1990. Dabei zeigt sich als generelles Krisen-Charakteristikum, dassin derartigenunsicheren Zeiten die Bargeldnachfrage unabhängig von der speziellen Art der Krise immer ansteigt. Dahinterstehen sowohl Transaktions - als auch Hortungsmotive. Die völlig elastische Befriedigung dieser Nachfrage durch die Zentralbanken hilft die jeweilige Situation zu beruhigen und die Unsicherheit zu reduzieren. Vor diesem Hintergrund sind Forderungen nach der Abschaffung von Bargeld äußerst kritisch zu sehen. T3 - REGENSBURG PAPERS IN MANAGEMENT AND ECONOMICS - 5 KW - Bargeld KW - Banknoten KW - Krisen KW - Corona Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:898-opus4-7979 SN - 978-3-96256-004-1 CY - Regensburg ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bartzsch, Nikolaus A1 - Rösl, Gerhard A1 - Seitz, Franz T1 - Estimating the foreign circulation of banknotes JF - Economics Letters N2 - In this paper, we analyze the volume of Euro banknotes issued by Germany and circulating in other Euro area countries as well as outside the Euro area with a banknotes’ age model. Our approach suggests that about 60% of banknotes, the equivalent of around € 225 billion, is held abroad. Highlights ► We analyze the volume of Euro banknotes issued by Germany and circulating abroad. ► We use a model of the age of banknotes. ► The model captures demand from other Euro area countries and outside the Euro area. ► About 60% of “German” banknotes (€ 225 billion) are held abroad. Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2013.02.017 VL - 119 IS - 2 SP - 165 EP - 167 PB - Elsevier ER - TY - INPR A1 - Bartzsch, Nikolaus A1 - Rösl, Gerhard A1 - Seitz, Franz T1 - Der Auslandsumlauf Deutscher Euro-Banknoten: Schätzung Mit Indirekten Ansätzen N2 - In dem vorliegenden Papier versuchen wir den Bestand der Euro-Banknoten zu ermitteln, der sich von der deutschen Banknotenemission im Ausland befindet. Dabei unterscheiden wir nach Beständen, die außerhalb des Euro-Währungsraumes gehalten werden, und solchen, die in anderen Ländern der EWU zirkulieren. Die Analyse basiert auf Ansätzen, die den Auslandsumlauf auf indirektem Wege abschätzen. Der Untersuchungszeitraum reicht von 2002 bis 2009. Wir finden heraus, dass Ende 2009 insgesamt rund zwei Drittel der deutschen kumulierten Nettoemissionen im Ausland umliefen. Der größte Teil, etwa 160 Mrd. €, befand sich außerhalb des Euro-Raums, der Rest - 80 Mrd. € - lief in anderen EWU-Ländern um. Somit entsprach der Inlandsumlauf deutscher Euro-Banknoten nur rund einem Drittel aller von der Bundesbank in Höhe von 350 Mrd. € in Umlauf gegebenen Banknoten. Damit werden die Ergebnisse direkter Ansätze bestätigt. KW - Banknoten KW - Euro KW - Auslandsumlauf KW - Hortung KW - Transaktionskasse KW - Binnenmigration Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2785412 PB - SSRN ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Rösl, Gerhard A1 - Seitz, Franz A1 - Tödter, Karl-Heinz T1 - The Cost of Overcoming the Zero Lower-Bound: A Welfare Analysis JF - Economies N2 - To broaden the operational scope of monetary policy, several authors suggest cash abolition as an appropriate means of breaking through the zero lower-bound. We argue that the welfare costs of bypassing the zero lower-bound by getting rid of cash entirely are analytically equivalent to negative interest rates on cash holdings. Using a money-in-the-utility-function model, we measure in two ways the welfare loss consumers as money holders would be forced to bear once the zero lower-bound is broken: in terms of the amount needed to compensate consumers (compensated variation), and as excess burden (deadweight loss) imposed on the economy as a whole. We calibrated the model for the euro area and for Germany. Our findings suggest that the welfare losses of negative interest rates incurred by consumers as holders of cash and transaction balances (M3) are large and enduring, notably if implemented in the current low-interest rate environment. KW - compensating variation KW - deadweight loss KW - money in utility KW - negative interest rates KW - welfare loss KW - zero lower-bound Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/economies7030067 VL - 7 IS - 3 SP - 1 EP - 18 PB - MDPI ER - TY - INPR A1 - Bartzsch, Nikolaus A1 - Rösl, Gerhard A1 - Seitz, Franz T1 - Foreign Demand for Euro Banknotes Issued in Germany: Estimation Using Indirect Approaches N2 - In this paper, we endeavour to determine the volume of euro banknotes issued by Germany that is in circulation outside Germany. In so doing, we draw a distinction between banknotes outstanding in non-euro-area countries and those that are in circulation in other euro-area countries. The analysis is based on approaches that estimate the volume of banknotes in circulation outside Germany indirectly. The observation period runs from 2002 to 2009. We discover that, at the end of 2009, a total of roughly two-thirds of Germany's cumulated net issuance of euro banknotes was in circulation outside Germany. The lion's share of roughly €160 billion was in non-euro-area countries, with the remaining €80 billion in other euro-area countries. Thus, the volume of German euro banknotes in circulation in Germany accounted for only roughly one-third of all banknotes issued by the Deutsche Bundesbank (€350 billion). This confirms the results of direct approaches. KW - banknotes KW - foreign demand KW - euro KW - hoarding KW - transaction balances KW - domestic migration Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2785411 PB - SSRN ER - TY - INPR A1 - Rösl, Gerhard A1 - Seitz, Franz T1 - On the Stabilizing Role of Cash for Societies N2 - In this paper, we focus on the stabilizing role of cash from a society-wide perspective. Starting with conceptual remarks on the importance of money for the economy in general, special attention is paid to the unique characteristics of cash. As these become apparent especially during crisis periods, a comparison of the Great Depression (1929 – 1933) and the Great Recession 2008/09 shows the devastating effects of a severe monetary contraction and how a fully elastic provision of cash can help to avoid such a situation. We find interesting similarities to both crises in two separate case studies, one on the demonetization in India 2016 and the other on cash supply during various crises in Greece since 2008. The paper concludes that supply-driven cash withdrawals from circulation (either by demonetization or by capital controls) destabilize the economy if electronic payment substitutes are not instantly available. However, as there is no perfect substitute for cash due to its unique properties, from the viewpoint of the society as a whole an efficient payment mix necessarily includes cash: It helps to stabilize the economy not only in times of crises in general, no matter which government is in place. Consequently, it should be the undisputed task of central banks to ensure that cash remains in circulation in normal times and is provided in a fully elastic way in times of crisis. Y1 - 2022 UR - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/361669791_On_the_Stabilizing_Role_of_Cash_for_Societies CY - Frankfurt am Main ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Beck, Hanno A1 - Prinz, Aloys A1 - Sorge, Christoph A1 - Winter, Heike A1 - Wörlen, Heike A1 - Rösl, Gerhard A1 - Seitz, Franz T1 - Paying with Cash – an Outdated Model? | Mit Bargeld zahlen – ein Auslaufmodell? JF - Wirtschaftsdienst : Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik N2 - Die Digitalisierung hat neben Kreditkarten auch unterschiedliche Bezahlsysteme möglich gemacht. Mittlerweile sind diese neuen Systeme auf dem Weg, das Bargeld abzulösen. Tatsächlich gibt es aus der Wissenschaft sogar Empfehlungen, das Bargeld ganz abzuschaffen. Die Autoren des Zeitgesprächs setzen sich mit den Argumenten für die Abschaffung auseinander und kommen zu dem Ergebnis, dass Bargeld wichtige Funktionen hat, auf die nicht so leicht verzichtet werden sollte. Y1 - 2015 UR - https://www.wirtschaftsdienst.eu/inhalt/jahr/2015/heft/8/beitrag/mit-bargeld-zahlen-ein-auslaufmodell.html VL - 95 IS - 8 SP - 515 EP - 528 PB - ZBW – Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bartzsch, Nikolaus A1 - Rösl, Gerhard A1 - Seitz, Franz T1 - Schätzungen des In- und Auslandsumlaufs von Euro-Banknoten JF - Wirtschaftsdienst : Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik N2 - Seit der Einführung des Euro-Bargelds ist der Umlauf deutscher Banknoten außerordentlich stark gestiegen. Vor allem der Auslandsumlauf spielt dabei eine Rolle – und hier wiederum der Umlauf außerhalb des Euroraums. Die Autoren schätzen die regionale Verteilung dieses Umlaufs mithilfe verschiedener Methoden und kommen zu dem Ergebnis, dass der Anteil der inländischen Geldnachfrage für Transaktionskasse und für die Wertaufbewahrung nur bei rund einem Drittel des gesamten Umlaufs deutscher Euro-Banknoten liegt. Y1 - 2012 UR - https://www.wirtschaftsdienst.eu/archiv/jahr/2012/heft/5.html VL - 92 IS - 5 SP - 345 EP - 351 PB - ZBW – Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bartzsch, Nikolaus A1 - Rösl, Gerhard A1 - Seitz, Franz T1 - Currency movements within and outside a currency union: The case of Germany and the euro area JF - Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance N2 - In this paper, we analyse the volume of euro banknotes issued by Germany within the euro area with several seasonal methods. We draw a distinction between movements within Germany, circulation outside Germany but within the euro area and demand from non-euro-area countries. Our approach suggests that only about 20% of euro notes issued by Germany are used for transactions in Germany. The rest is hoarded (10%), circulates in other euro area countries (25%) or is held outside the euro area (45%). Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2013.05.008 VL - 53 IS - 4 SP - 393 EP - 401 PB - Elsevier ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bartzsch, Nikolaus A1 - Rösl, Gerhard A1 - Seitz, Franz T1 - A simple way to capture currency abroad JF - Applied Economics Letters N2 - In this article, we analyse the volume of euro banknotes issued by Germany that circulate abroad. Inferences are drawn from a coin model. Our approach suggests that foreign demand has increased since 2002. At the end of 2009 nearly 50%, the equivalent of €170 billion, is held outside the euro area. Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2011.637886 VL - 19 IS - 15 SP - 1511 EP - 1514 PB - Routledge CY - Abingdon ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Rösl, Gerhard A1 - Seitz, Franz T1 - Cash demand in times of crisis JF - Journal of Payments Strategy and Systems N2 - This paper focuses on the role of specific types of crisis (technological crisis, financial market crisis, natural disaster) and their effects on the demand for cash in an international context. As evidence from the last 30 years shows, demand for cash increases during periods of crisis, regardless of the nature of the crisis. The nature of the crisis does, however, determine whether small or large banknote denominations are affected more. This study finds that times of payment uncertainties are associated with increased demand for small denominations, probably reflecting an elevated demand for transaction balances. By contrast, in times of financial crisis or general economic uncertainty, the increased demand for cash is largely the result of consumers taking precautionary actions and building up non-transaction balances; for this reason, there is greater demand for large banknote denominations. This study finds that cash continues to play an important role in crisis management. Whether this function can also be fulfilled by a future central bank digital currency, however, remains to be seen. Y1 - 2022 UR - https://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/hsp/jpss/2022/00000016/00000002/art00002 SN - 1750-1814 VL - 16 IS - 2 SP - 107 EP - 119 PB - Ingenta CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Rösl, Gerhard A1 - Seitz, Franz T1 - Uncertainty, politics, and crises: The case for cash JF - Latin American Journal of Central Banking N2 - We analyze the repercussions of different kinds of uncertainty on cash demand, including uncertainty of cashless infrastructures, confidence crises of the financial system, natural disasters, political uncertainties, and inflationary crises. Based on a comprehensive literature survey and complemented by case studies, we derive a classification scheme how cash holdings typically evolved in each of these types of uncertainty over the past 30 years by separating between demand for domestic and international cash as well as between transaction and store of value balances. Hereby, we focus on the stabilizing macroeconomic properties of cash and recommendguidelines for cash supply by central banks and the banking system. Finally, we exemplify ouranalysis with five case studies from the developing world, namely Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya. KW - Cash KW - Banknotes KW - Money KW - Crises KW - Stabilization KW - Uncertainty Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100128 SN - 2666-1438 VL - 5 IS - 3 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Rösl, Gerhard A1 - Seitz, Franz T1 - Central Bank Digital Currency and Cash in the Euro Area: Current Developments and one Specific Proposal JF - Credit and Capital Markets – Kredit und Kapital N2 - The present paper provides an overview on current developments of cash usage and issue of central bank digital currency (CBDC) in the euro area and proposes a possible design of a digital euro that allows for instant offline payments. Cash usage at the point-of-sale decreased perceptibly in the past years mainly due to the ongoing trend towards digitalization. However, we show that there are also indications that consumers were somewhat pushed into cashless payments by government regulations and supply-side restrictions by commercial banks. Nonetheless, overall demand for euro cash remained strong and even increased relative to GDP since the financial crisis in 2008. In this process, however, we observe a supply-driven shift towards lower banknote denominations. Central banks all over the world are intensively thinking about the potential issue of ­CBDC as a substitute or complement to cash. Based on some of its preferred characteristics, we propose a double pre-paid scheme combining central elements of TARGET Instant Payment Settlement and electronic money features enabling offline and online instant payments. Since anonymity is categorically discarded by the ECB and as cash has some special advantages from a consumer perspective, the digital euro will rather co-circulate with cash than replace it in transactions. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3790/ccm.55.4.523 VL - 55 IS - 4 SP - 523 EP - 551 PB - Duncker & Humblot CY - Berlin ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Rösl, Gerhard A1 - Seitz, Franz T1 - Cash and Crises: No surprises by the virus Y1 - 2021 UR - http://www.imfs-frankfurt.de/fileadmin/user_upload/IMFS_WP/IMFS_WP_150_web.pdf PB - Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Rösl, Gerhard A1 - Seitz, Franz T1 - Doing away with cash? The welfare costs of abolishing cash JF - IMFS Working Papers Y1 - 2017 UR - http://www.imfs-frankfurt.de/fileadmin/user_upload/IMFS_WP_112.pdf IS - 112 PB - Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bartzsch, Nikolaus A1 - Rösl, Gerhard A1 - Seitz, Franz T1 - Cash demand in times of crises: a global perspective JF - Bank & Credit N2 - We analyse the repercussions of different kinds of crises on cash demand in an international perspective. Our case studies are based on time series of banknotes in circulation in a selection of 16 countries and currency areas across all continents over the period from 1990 to 2022. We distinguish between six different kinds of crises: (1) uncertainty of the digital infrastructure, (2) confidence crises of the financial system, (3) natural disasters, (4) political crises, (5) inflationary crises, and (6) exchange rate crises. Our case studies suggest that crises are likely to have contributed to the dynamic growth in demand for banknotes in the countries analysed. This applies both to small and large banknote denominations. Y1 - 2025 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0054.9611 VL - 56 IS - 01 SP - 1 EP - 44 PB - Index Copernicus CY - Warsaw ER -