@article{RoeslToedter, author = {R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and T{\"o}dter, Karl-Heinz}, title = {The Financial Repression Policy of the European Central Bank: Interest Income and Welfare Losses for German Savers}, series = {Ifo DICE report}, volume = {15}, journal = {Ifo DICE report}, number = {1}, publisher = {M{\"u}nchen}, address = {Ifo-Institut f{\"u}r Wirtschaftsforschung}, organization = {Ifo-Institut f{\"u}r Wirtschaftsforschung}, pages = {5 -- 8}, language = {en} } @article{RoeslToedter, author = {R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and T{\"o}dter, Karl-Heinz}, title = {Wie teuer ist die Niedrigzinspolitik der EZB f{\"u}r Deutschland?}, series = {ifo Schnelldienst}, volume = {68}, journal = {ifo Schnelldienst}, number = {7}, publisher = {Ifo-Inst. f{\"u}r Wirtschaftsforschung}, address = {M{\"u}nchen}, pages = {43 -- 50}, abstract = {»Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the Euro. And believe me, it will be enough.« Diese Ank{\"u}ndigung des EZB-Pr{\"a}sidenten Mario Draghi vom 26. Juli 2012 markiert den Beginn einer neuen geldpolitischen Doktrin zur Rettung maroder (s{\"u}deurop{\"a}ischer) Staaten und Banken. Die extreme Niedrigzinspolitik, die inzwischen im Eurosystem sogar mit negativen nominalen Einlages{\"a}tzen einhergeht (vgl. Bucher und Neyer 2014), hat jedoch wirtschaftspolitische Zielkonflikte und nationale Strukturprobleme in den Mitgliedstaaten nur verschleiert, nicht gel{\"o}st. Und dies gilt in verst{\"a}rkter Form, seit der EZB-Rat beschlossen hat, Staatsanleihen von EWU-Mitgliedstaaten in Billionenh{\"o}he anzukaufen (Quantitative Easing). Mit dieser Politik des fortw{\"a}hrenden Zeitkaufens betreibt die EZB im Fall Griechenlands faktisch eine Insolvenzverschleppung. Millionen von Sparern werden gezwungen, ein massiv nach unten gedr{\"u}cktes Zinsniveau mit entsprechenden Umverteilungseffekten und Wohlfahrtseinbußen zu akzeptieren. Mit den Kosten dieser sogenannten unkonventionellen Geldpolitik, die weit {\"u}ber die typischen distributiven Nebeneffekte der Geldpolitik im Konjunktur- und Zinszyklus hinausgehen, besch{\"a}ftigt sich dieser Beitrag. Die empirischen Befunde beziehen sich auf Deutschland, das im Zentrum dieses neuen europ{\"a}ischen Transfersystems steht. (German) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of ifo Schnelldienst is the property of ifo Institute for Economic Research and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)}, language = {de} } @article{RoeslSeitzToedter, author = {R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and Seitz, Franz and T{\"o}dter, Karl-Heinz}, title = {The Cost of Overcoming the Zero Lower-Bound: A Welfare Analysis}, series = {Economies}, volume = {7}, journal = {Economies}, number = {3}, publisher = {MDPI}, doi = {10.3390/economies7030067}, pages = {1 -- 18}, abstract = {To broaden the operational scope of monetary policy, several authors suggest cash abolition as an appropriate means of breaking through the zero lower-bound. We argue that the welfare costs of bypassing the zero lower-bound by getting rid of cash entirely are analytically equivalent to negative interest rates on cash holdings. Using a money-in-the-utility-function model, we measure in two ways the welfare loss consumers as money holders would be forced to bear once the zero lower-bound is broken: in terms of the amount needed to compensate consumers (compensated variation), and as excess burden (deadweight loss) imposed on the economy as a whole. We calibrated the model for the euro area and for Germany. Our findings suggest that the welfare losses of negative interest rates incurred by consumers as holders of cash and transaction balances (M3) are large and enduring, notably if implemented in the current low-interest rate environment.}, language = {en} } @book{RoeslSeitzToedter, author = {R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and Seitz, Franz and T{\"o}dter, Karl-Heinz}, title = {Besser ohne Bargeld? - Gesamtwirtschaftliche Wohlfahrts-verluste der Bargeldabschaffung}, address = {Regensburg}, organization = {Ostbayersiche Technische Hochschule Regensburg / Fakult{\"a}t Betriebswirtschaft}, isbn = {978-3-96256-000-3}, doi = {10.35096/othr/pub-793}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:898-opus4-7937}, publisher = {Ostbayerische Technische Hochschule Regensburg}, pages = {33}, abstract = {To broaden the operational scope of monetary policy, several authors suggest cash abolishment as an appropriate means of breaking through the zero lower bound. The key question in this respect is: What are the costs of such a proposal? We argue that the welfare costs of bypassing the zero lower bound can be dealt with analytically and empirically by assuming negative interest rates on cash holdings. Adopting a money-in-the-utility-function (MIU) model, we measure the welfare loss in terms of theamount needed to compensate consumers (compensated variation), and as excess burden (deadweight loss) imposed on the economy. Firstly, we gauge the welfare effects of abolishing cash, both, for the Euro area and for Germany, and we perform several robustness checks. Secondly, we broaden the analysis by taking into account the liquidity services of assets included in the monetary aggregates M1 and M3, and we contrast the results for the year 2015 with those for the pre-crisis period 2005. Our findings suggest that the welfare losses of negative interest rates incurred by consumers and society are large, notably if implemented in a low interest rate environment. Imposing a negative interest rate of 3 percent on cash holdings and reducing the interest on all assets included in M3 creates a deadweight loss of € 62bn for euro area and of €18bn for Germany. The annual compensation required by consumers in the euro area as well as in Germany is equivalent to 2.2 percent of GDP or about €700 per capita. Thus, stepping into deep negative interest rates turns out to be a very costly economic experiment, leaving aside the potential risks and negative side effects of protracted and intensified unconventional monetary policy.}, language = {de} }