@techreport{BresinskyPetzke, author = {Bresinsky, Markus and Petzke, Jan}, title = {Russland 2030+}, publisher = {OTH Regensburg}, doi = {10.35096/othr/pub-7839}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:898-opus4-78395}, abstract = {Der Bericht "Russland 2030+: Wege in eine ungewisse Zukunft" pr{\"a}sentiert m{\"o}gliche Szenarien f{\"u}r die politische, wirtschaftliche, milit{\"a}rische und gesellschaftliche Entwicklung Russlands bis {\"u}ber das Jahr 2030 hinaus. Er basiert auf einem interdisziplin{\"a}ren Ansatz und verwendet Foresight-Methoden, darunter eine PMESII-Analyse. Diese wurde von Studierenden der OTH Regensburg unter Leitung von Prof. Dr. Markus Bresinsky in Zusammenarbeit mit Vertretern der Bundeswehr durchgef{\"u}hrt. Der Bericht stellt f{\"u}nf Zukuntsbilder vor, die sich jeweils auf unterschiedliche Schl{\"u}sselfaktoren und Annahmen st{\"u}tzen: von einer Fortf{\"u}hrung der autorit{\"a}ren Herrschaft (Putin's Tsardom) {\"u}ber gewaltsame Machtwechsel (Moscow Meltdown) bis hin zur zunehmenden Abh{\"a}ngigkeit von China (Dragon eats Bear). Ziel der Untersuchung ist es, m{\"o}gliche Entwicklungen und deren Implikationen f{\"u}r internationale Akteure aufzuzeigen, um eine fundierte Entscheidungsgrundlage f{\"u}r vorausschauendes Handeln zu schaffen.}, language = {de} } @inproceedings{NeugartBresinsky, author = {Neugart, Sandrine and Bresinsky, Markus}, title = {Situational Awareness of Critical Infrastructures at the Local Level - Fostering Resilience Through Accessible Method-based Analysis}, series = {Critical Infrastructure Protection and Resilience Europe (CIPRE) 2022, Bukarest (Rum{\"a}nien)}, booktitle = {Critical Infrastructure Protection and Resilience Europe (CIPRE) 2022, Bukarest (Rum{\"a}nien)}, doi = {10.35096/othr/pub-5567}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:898-opus4-55676}, pages = {IV, 14, XI}, abstract = {Critical infrastructure protection and resilience start at the local level. While laws and regulations provide the necessary frameworks within which the various stakeholders act, little effort has been made to bring together local and regional actors in order to facilitate a shared understanding of critical infrastructure (CI) risks and security. Such a common analysis, however, is essential to identifying local vulnerabilities, understanding their key drivers as well as their interdependencies, and ultimately, to adapting strategies which overall contribute to improving the security of KRITIS in the region. This paper outlines a best practice approach to analyzing risks associated with KRITIS and their interdependencies at the local level. It addresses frequently overlooked issues such as bringing together different stakeholders whilst making the discussion accessible and comprehensible to everyone. It also deals with analytic questions regarding the development of a methods-based approach to situational awareness, ranging from defining appropriate categories of thinking to mitigating the impact of potential biases influencing the different thought processes. In order to advance these ideas, the analysis is based on thorough research as well as first-hand experience from running local workshops for stakeholders of KRITIS. Overall, this paper seeks to develop a format which encourages action among KRITIS stakeholders at the local level. It approaches critical infrastructures from a system thinking perspective, whilst linking intellectual accessibility with the rigor of academic analysis.}, language = {en} } @misc{BresinskyHagerXanthos, author = {Bresinsky, Markus and Hager, Eva and Xanthos, George}, title = {ChatGPT for futures: how large language models can support the development of future scenarios using the Cone of Plausibility}, series = {CCEW SYMPOSIUM 2024: Predictive Synergies: Crisis Early Warning \& Foresight, 19. und 20. September 2024, M{\"u}nchen}, journal = {CCEW SYMPOSIUM 2024: Predictive Synergies: Crisis Early Warning \& Foresight, 19. und 20. September 2024, M{\"u}nchen}, doi = {10.35096/othr/pub-7781}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:898-opus4-77811}, abstract = {Recently, large language models (LLMs), such as the "Chat Generative Pre-trained Transformer", commonly known as ChatGPT, are substantially impacting the world of (big) data analytics and artificial intelligence. This paper explores how ChatGPT-4 can be used to support the development of future scenarios using the Cone of Plausibility method. The most recent version ChatGPT 4.0 differs from its predecessors in that it can now access real-time data to generate its responses. This makes it an attractive tool for intelligence analysts, who are faced with the permanent challenge of having to sift through large amounts of data whilst also providing actionable products in a timely manner. Previous versions of ChatGPT were prone to errors such as making up information. But what if, using the right prompts, version 4.0 could become a useful sparring partner for developing future scenarios? In this study, we will ask ChatGPT 4.0 to generate sets of plausible future scenarios for "Russia 2035+" based on previously specified key drivers and assumptions. The LLM's potential for error is reduced because it is not working with hypotheses that it has generated itself. This could turn ChatGPT into a quick-thinking sparring partner for imagining varieties of future scenarios, supporting out-of-the box thinking and further minimising cognitive biases. To evaluate the reliability and accuracy of the results generated by ChatGPT, we will use the VV\&A concept developed by the US Department of Defence. According to this concept, credibility in an intelligence product is rooted in the verification, validation and accreditation of its analysis. This process is routinely followed by every intelligence analyst. We will have found out to which extent and under which circumstances ChatGPT 4.0 can credibly support the development of future scenarios.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{ReusnerPoehnerBresinsky, author = {Reusner, Florian and P{\"o}hner, Miriam and Bresinsky, Markus}, title = {The Joint Effort Workshop as a tool for Knowledge Management and competence development}, series = {5th International Conference on Higher Education Advances (HEAd'19): 26.06.2019 - 28.06.2019, Valencia}, booktitle = {5th International Conference on Higher Education Advances (HEAd'19): 26.06.2019 - 28.06.2019, Valencia}, publisher = {Universitat Polit{\`e}cnica Val{\`e}ncia}, address = {Valencia}, isbn = {9788490486610}, doi = {10.4995/head19.2019.9305}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:898-opus4-26973}, abstract = {Cybersecurity is a complex global phenomenon where the risk for individuals, organisation and the society at large are at risk. These risks need to be in focus and solutions for the prevention and developing countermeasures. In this paper, we describe the Joint Effort Workshop as an approach to raise awareness to these threads and the possibility to generate and exchange knowledge between students and experts. We conclude that mechanisms for systematic response to attacks need the developed technical requirements, but foremost human behaviour, knowledge and resilience to response to risks, which can be experienced through the collaborative environment of the Joint Effort Workshop}, language = {en} } @misc{Bresinsky, author = {Bresinsky, Markus}, title = {Strategic Forecasting with Machine Learning for Geopolitical Analysis}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:898-opus4-25103}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{BresinskySchroederViscardi, author = {Bresinsky, Markus and Schroeder, Johanna and Viscardi, Valerio}, title = {Asymmetry in Trust Building - different perspectives in gains and losses explained via Prospect Theory}, series = {Common Effort Conference, The Hague: 19 - 22 October 2020}, booktitle = {Common Effort Conference, The Hague: 19 - 22 October 2020}, organization = {Common Effort Community}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:898-opus4-24778}, pages = {1 -- 9}, abstract = {Building trust within conflicts situations is a required process to establish a suitable environment for peace keeping and state building processes. However, it remains unclear what are the best ways to foster trusts between actors in a conflict environment. This study draws insights from the literature on trust and from Kahneman's Prospect Theory to analyse the decision-making dynamics of the actors involved in a conflict and how these dynamics could affect the trust levels between those actors. To this purpose, the fourfold pattern of preferences I applied to a thought experiments where opposing actors in a conflict in the Sahel face the decision to accept or refuse a peace agreement when either one of the two actors face huge gains or catastrophic losses. The main findings is that, in those extreme situations, the actors involved tend to take unnational decisions that undermine the trust building process in the country. Therefore, it would be recommendable to boost situations where actors are negotiating in a more balanced environment. To this purpose, further research should be conducted on the ways to create such suitable environment for trust building.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{BresinskySchroederViscardi, author = {Bresinsky, Markus and Schroeder, Johanna and Viscardi, Valerio}, title = {Strategic Forecasting with Machine Learning for Regional Geopolitical Analysis}, series = {Η Περιφερειακή Επιστήμη, το μέλλον της και οι προκλήσεις στα πεδία της έρευνας και της εφαρμογής : 21ο Επιστημονικό Συνέδριο του Συνδέσμου Ελλήνων Περιφερειολόγων Ελληνικό Μεσογειακό Πανεπιστήμιο, Ηράκλειο Κρήτης, 16-17 Οκτωβρίου 2020 - Challenges for the Future of Regional Science: Research and Applications; 21st Conference: Heraklion, Crete, Oktober 2020}, booktitle = {Η Περιφερειακή Επιστήμη, το μέλλον της και οι προκλήσεις στα πεδία της έρευνας και της εφαρμογής : 21ο Επιστημονικό Συνέδριο του Συνδέσμου Ελλήνων Περιφερειολόγων Ελληνικό Μεσογειακό Πανεπιστήμιο, Ηράκλειο Κρήτης, 16-17 Οκτωβρίου 2020 - Challenges for the Future of Regional Science: Research and Applications; 21st Conference: Heraklion, Crete, Oktober 2020}, isbn = {978-618-00-2351-0}, pages = {267 -- 276}, abstract = {Strategic forecasting of regional geopolitical development is important for early warning and contingency planning. Open source data and machine learning can help to identify indicators for effective scenario development. Using data of the Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI) and the machine learning software Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis (WEKA), this paper gives an insight into the generation of a decision tree to provide indicators for forecasting regional development across parts of Northern and Western Africa. Results show that machine learning with open source data can support redefining indicator development but does not replace critical thinking.}, language = {mul} } @article{Bresinsky, author = {Bresinsky, Markus}, title = {Understanding Hybrid Warfare as Asymmetric Conflict : Systemic Analysis by Safety, Security and Certainty}, series = {On-line Journal Modelling the New Europe}, journal = {On-line Journal Modelling the New Europe}, number = {21}, publisher = {Babes-Bolyai University}, pages = {29 -- 51}, abstract = {The emergence of innovative methods and operations in asymmetric conflicts as for example unidentifiable soldiers during the Crimean conflict in 2014 or sophisticated cyberattack against Estonia in 2007 was a trigger for both analysts and scholars to rethink scientific concepts of asymmetric conflict. With introduction of the concept 'hybrid warfare' a new systematic element was established in scientific research. Nevertheless, the concept is discussed rather controversially and often its scientific value is questioned. Most of the literature describes the empirical phenomena of hybrid warfare, but does not provide a theoretical based argumentation. This paper addresses the neglected aspect of systemic analysis by focusing on vulnerability of modern societies and outlines a concept based on the theoretical idea of safety, security and certainty to grasp the underlying driving factors of new forms and methods in asymmetric conflicts. The analysis presented here shows that sociology and system engineering have already developed valuable conceptual definitions of safety, security and certainty that can be used for the analysis of asymmetric conflicts. The missing link, closed by this paper, was an interdisciplinary approach to integrate these concepts into an analysis framework. The findings indicated that the new forms of asymmetric conflicts can be understood as a concise and precise analysis of systemic weaknesses of nation states and their societies. Still, Western European nations focus their security policy mainly on past challenges of war and peace. Therefore, societies of these nations remain highly vulnerable to safety threats and uncertainty. The presented theoretical framework supported this result and should, therefore, be of value to analysts and scientists alike aiming to identify the underlying systemic factors of innovative asymmetric conflict.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{BresinskyWillner, author = {Bresinsky, Markus and Willner, Sophia}, title = {GLOBE - Digital Literacy and Organizational Learning by Scenario-Driven Exercises}, series = {Interactivity, Game Creation, Design, Learning, and Innovation: 8th EAI International Conference, ArtsIT 2019, and 4th EAI International Conference, DLI 2019: Aalborg, Denmark, November 6-8, 2019, Proceedings}, booktitle = {Interactivity, Game Creation, Design, Learning, and Innovation: 8th EAI International Conference, ArtsIT 2019, and 4th EAI International Conference, DLI 2019: Aalborg, Denmark, November 6-8, 2019, Proceedings}, editor = {Brooks, Anthony L. and Brooks, Eva Irene}, publisher = {Springer International Publishing}, address = {Cham}, isbn = {978-3-030-53293-2}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-030-53294-9_51}, pages = {671 -- 682}, abstract = {Due to rapid technological development and fast-changing working environments, organizations active in such context find themselves facing internal change and adaption processes. Originally prominent among start-up or IT-companies, the use of management concepts to steer such change processes and to increase efficiency also spread among humanitarian organizations preoccupied with crisis management. In this regard, concepts retrieved from the domain of Organization Development offer a great potential to facilitate change processes and to enhance learning among practitioners. The notions of Learning Organization and Quality Management are combined with the theory of Argyris and Sch{\"o}n's Levels of Learning. This combination then serves as a theoretical decision-making base used in a simulation game at the University of Applied Sciences OTH Regensburg. Within this scenario-driven exercise, Quality Management, virtual collaboration and digital skills are trained. During the simulation game, participants are encouraged to think critically, to utilize new technologies and to apply their problem-solving skills to real-life examples, which ultimately aims at preparing students for a dynamic working environment within the era of digitization.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{BresinskyWillner, author = {Bresinsky, Markus and Willner, Sophia}, title = {GLOBE - Cognitive and Social Competence Development by Virtual Collaboration and Simulation Games}, series = {Interactivity, Game Creation, Design, Learning, and Innovation. 8th EAI International Conference, ArtsIT 2019, and 4th EAI International Conference, DLI 2019, Aalborg, Denmark, November 6-8, 2019, Proceedings}, booktitle = {Interactivity, Game Creation, Design, Learning, and Innovation. 8th EAI International Conference, ArtsIT 2019, and 4th EAI International Conference, DLI 2019, Aalborg, Denmark, November 6-8, 2019, Proceedings}, editor = {Brooks, Anthony L. and Brooks, Eva Irene}, publisher = {Springer International Publishing}, address = {Cham}, isbn = {978-3-030-06133-3}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-030-06134-0_37}, pages = {331 -- 342}, abstract = {This paper first examines a variety of conceptual contemporary challenges and cognitive shortcomings of public policy makers, entrepreneurs and other practitioners in Germany as a knowledge-based economy. Systems thinking, digital competencies and several modern leadership skills are identified as possibilities to meet contemporary challenges in fast changing and complex environments. Modern leadership skills and promising working styles imply the ability to manage agile processes, flexibility and diversity, and the modus operandi as self-organizing networks. After that, the simulation game GLOBE Exercise at the OTH Regensburg is introduced as an innovative and transformative learning method. In its concept, the GLOBE Exercise combines virtual collaboration with Action Learning, and thus contributes to skills development and transfer both concerning digital competencies and analytical skills.}, language = {en} }