@book{RoeslSeitzToedter, author = {R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and Seitz, Franz and T{\"o}dter, Karl-Heinz}, title = {Besser ohne Bargeld? - Gesamtwirtschaftliche Wohlfahrts-verluste der Bargeldabschaffung}, address = {Regensburg}, organization = {Ostbayersiche Technische Hochschule Regensburg / Fakult{\"a}t Betriebswirtschaft}, isbn = {978-3-96256-000-3}, doi = {10.35096/othr/pub-793}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:898-opus4-7937}, publisher = {Ostbayerische Technische Hochschule Regensburg}, pages = {33}, abstract = {To broaden the operational scope of monetary policy, several authors suggest cash abolishment as an appropriate means of breaking through the zero lower bound. The key question in this respect is: What are the costs of such a proposal? We argue that the welfare costs of bypassing the zero lower bound can be dealt with analytically and empirically by assuming negative interest rates on cash holdings. Adopting a money-in-the-utility-function (MIU) model, we measure the welfare loss in terms of theamount needed to compensate consumers (compensated variation), and as excess burden (deadweight loss) imposed on the economy. Firstly, we gauge the welfare effects of abolishing cash, both, for the Euro area and for Germany, and we perform several robustness checks. Secondly, we broaden the analysis by taking into account the liquidity services of assets included in the monetary aggregates M1 and M3, and we contrast the results for the year 2015 with those for the pre-crisis period 2005. Our findings suggest that the welfare losses of negative interest rates incurred by consumers and society are large, notably if implemented in a low interest rate environment. Imposing a negative interest rate of 3 percent on cash holdings and reducing the interest on all assets included in M3 creates a deadweight loss of € 62bn for euro area and of €18bn for Germany. The annual compensation required by consumers in the euro area as well as in Germany is equivalent to 2.2 percent of GDP or about €700 per capita. Thus, stepping into deep negative interest rates turns out to be a very costly economic experiment, leaving aside the potential risks and negative side effects of protracted and intensified unconventional monetary policy.}, language = {de} } @book{RoeslSeitz, author = {R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and Seitz, Franz}, title = {SARS-Cov-2 und Bargeld: Wie ein Virus die weltweite Bargeldnachfrage f{\"o}rdert}, address = {Regensburg}, organization = {Ostbayerische Technische Hochschule Regensburg / Fakult{\"a}t Betriebswirtschaft}, isbn = {978-3-96256-004-1}, doi = {10.35096/othr/pub-797}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:898-opus4-7979}, publisher = {Ostbayerische Technische Hochschule Regensburg}, pages = {19}, abstract = {Wir zeigen, dass die g{\"a}ngige These, Bargeld w{\"u}rde wegen des zunehmenden Einsatzes elektronischer Zahlungsmittel generell immer st{\"a}rker an Bedeutung verlieren, sowohl im weltweiten Maßstab als auch in den Emissionsl{\"a}ndern der international nachfragten Sorten(USD, EUR,CHF, GBPund JPY) als klar widerlegt angesehen werden kann.Besonderes Augenmerk legen wir dabeiauf die Entwicklung der Bargeldnachfrage in Krisenphasen. Hierunterscheiden wir zwischen drei verschiedenen Typen von Krisen (technologische Krisen, Finanzmarktkrisen, Naturkatastrophen) und untersuchen jeweils die krisenbedingte Nachfrage nach großen und kleinen Denominationen von Banknotenseit 1990. Dabei zeigt sich als generelles Krisen-Charakteristikum, dassin derartigenunsicheren Zeiten die Bargeldnachfrage unabh{\"a}ngig von der speziellen Art der Krise immer ansteigt. Dahinterstehen sowohl Transaktions - als auch Hortungsmotive. Die v{\"o}llig elastische Befriedigung dieser Nachfrage durch die Zentralbanken hilft die jeweilige Situation zu beruhigen und die Unsicherheit zu reduzieren. Vor diesem Hintergrund sind Forderungen nach der Abschaffung von Bargeld {\"a}ußerst kritisch zu sehen.}, language = {de} } @article{BartzschRoeslSeitz, author = {Bartzsch, Nikolaus and R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and Seitz, Franz}, title = {Estimating the foreign circulation of banknotes}, series = {Economics Letters}, volume = {119}, journal = {Economics Letters}, number = {2}, publisher = {Elsevier}, doi = {10.1016/j.econlet.2013.02.017}, pages = {165 -- 167}, abstract = {In this paper, we analyze the volume of Euro banknotes issued by Germany and circulating in other Euro area countries as well as outside the Euro area with a banknotes' age model. Our approach suggests that about 60\% of banknotes, the equivalent of around € 225 billion, is held abroad. Highlights ► We analyze the volume of Euro banknotes issued by Germany and circulating abroad. ► We use a model of the age of banknotes. ► The model captures demand from other Euro area countries and outside the Euro area. ► About 60\% of "German" banknotes (€ 225 billion) are held abroad.}, language = {en} } @unpublished{BartzschRoeslSeitz, author = {Bartzsch, Nikolaus and R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and Seitz, Franz}, title = {Der Auslandsumlauf Deutscher Euro-Banknoten: Sch{\"a}tzung Mit Indirekten Ans{\"a}tzen}, publisher = {SSRN}, doi = {10.2139/ssrn.2785412}, abstract = {In dem vorliegenden Papier versuchen wir den Bestand der Euro-Banknoten zu ermitteln, der sich von der deutschen Banknotenemission im Ausland befindet. Dabei unterscheiden wir nach Best{\"a}nden, die außerhalb des Euro-W{\"a}hrungsraumes gehalten werden, und solchen, die in anderen L{\"a}ndern der EWU zirkulieren. Die Analyse basiert auf Ans{\"a}tzen, die den Auslandsumlauf auf indirektem Wege absch{\"a}tzen. Der Untersuchungszeitraum reicht von 2002 bis 2009. Wir finden heraus, dass Ende 2009 insgesamt rund zwei Drittel der deutschen kumulierten Nettoemissionen im Ausland umliefen. Der gr{\"o}ßte Teil, etwa 160 Mrd. €, befand sich außerhalb des Euro-Raums, der Rest - 80 Mrd. € - lief in anderen EWU-L{\"a}ndern um. Somit entsprach der Inlandsumlauf deutscher Euro-Banknoten nur rund einem Drittel aller von der Bundesbank in H{\"o}he von 350 Mrd. € in Umlauf gegebenen Banknoten. Damit werden die Ergebnisse direkter Ans{\"a}tze best{\"a}tigt.}, language = {de} } @article{RoeslSeitzToedter, author = {R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and Seitz, Franz and T{\"o}dter, Karl-Heinz}, title = {The Cost of Overcoming the Zero Lower-Bound: A Welfare Analysis}, series = {Economies}, volume = {7}, journal = {Economies}, number = {3}, publisher = {MDPI}, doi = {10.3390/economies7030067}, pages = {1 -- 18}, abstract = {To broaden the operational scope of monetary policy, several authors suggest cash abolition as an appropriate means of breaking through the zero lower-bound. We argue that the welfare costs of bypassing the zero lower-bound by getting rid of cash entirely are analytically equivalent to negative interest rates on cash holdings. Using a money-in-the-utility-function model, we measure in two ways the welfare loss consumers as money holders would be forced to bear once the zero lower-bound is broken: in terms of the amount needed to compensate consumers (compensated variation), and as excess burden (deadweight loss) imposed on the economy as a whole. We calibrated the model for the euro area and for Germany. Our findings suggest that the welfare losses of negative interest rates incurred by consumers as holders of cash and transaction balances (M3) are large and enduring, notably if implemented in the current low-interest rate environment.}, language = {en} } @unpublished{BartzschRoeslSeitz, author = {Bartzsch, Nikolaus and R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and Seitz, Franz}, title = {Foreign Demand for Euro Banknotes Issued in Germany: Estimation Using Indirect Approaches}, publisher = {SSRN}, doi = {10.2139/ssrn.2785411}, pages = {60}, abstract = {In this paper, we endeavour to determine the volume of euro banknotes issued by Germany that is in circulation outside Germany. In so doing, we draw a distinction between banknotes outstanding in non-euro-area countries and those that are in circulation in other euro-area countries. The analysis is based on approaches that estimate the volume of banknotes in circulation outside Germany indirectly. The observation period runs from 2002 to 2009. We discover that, at the end of 2009, a total of roughly two-thirds of Germany's cumulated net issuance of euro banknotes was in circulation outside Germany. The lion's share of roughly €160 billion was in non-euro-area countries, with the remaining €80 billion in other euro-area countries. Thus, the volume of German euro banknotes in circulation in Germany accounted for only roughly one-third of all banknotes issued by the Deutsche Bundesbank (€350 billion). This confirms the results of direct approaches.}, language = {en} } @article{RoeslToedter, author = {R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and T{\"o}dter, Karl-Heinz}, title = {The Financial Repression Policy of the European Central Bank: Interest Income and Welfare Losses for German Savers}, series = {Ifo DICE report}, volume = {15}, journal = {Ifo DICE report}, number = {1}, publisher = {M{\"u}nchen}, address = {Ifo-Institut f{\"u}r Wirtschaftsforschung}, organization = {Ifo-Institut f{\"u}r Wirtschaftsforschung}, pages = {5 -- 8}, language = {en} } @article{RoeslToedter, author = {R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and T{\"o}dter, Karl-Heinz}, title = {Wie teuer ist die Niedrigzinspolitik der EZB f{\"u}r Deutschland?}, series = {ifo Schnelldienst}, volume = {68}, journal = {ifo Schnelldienst}, number = {7}, publisher = {Ifo-Inst. f{\"u}r Wirtschaftsforschung}, address = {M{\"u}nchen}, pages = {43 -- 50}, abstract = {»Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the Euro. And believe me, it will be enough.« Diese Ank{\"u}ndigung des EZB-Pr{\"a}sidenten Mario Draghi vom 26. Juli 2012 markiert den Beginn einer neuen geldpolitischen Doktrin zur Rettung maroder (s{\"u}deurop{\"a}ischer) Staaten und Banken. Die extreme Niedrigzinspolitik, die inzwischen im Eurosystem sogar mit negativen nominalen Einlages{\"a}tzen einhergeht (vgl. Bucher und Neyer 2014), hat jedoch wirtschaftspolitische Zielkonflikte und nationale Strukturprobleme in den Mitgliedstaaten nur verschleiert, nicht gel{\"o}st. Und dies gilt in verst{\"a}rkter Form, seit der EZB-Rat beschlossen hat, Staatsanleihen von EWU-Mitgliedstaaten in Billionenh{\"o}he anzukaufen (Quantitative Easing). Mit dieser Politik des fortw{\"a}hrenden Zeitkaufens betreibt die EZB im Fall Griechenlands faktisch eine Insolvenzverschleppung. Millionen von Sparern werden gezwungen, ein massiv nach unten gedr{\"u}cktes Zinsniveau mit entsprechenden Umverteilungseffekten und Wohlfahrtseinbußen zu akzeptieren. Mit den Kosten dieser sogenannten unkonventionellen Geldpolitik, die weit {\"u}ber die typischen distributiven Nebeneffekte der Geldpolitik im Konjunktur- und Zinszyklus hinausgehen, besch{\"a}ftigt sich dieser Beitrag. Die empirischen Befunde beziehen sich auf Deutschland, das im Zentrum dieses neuen europ{\"a}ischen Transfersystems steht. (German) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of ifo Schnelldienst is the property of ifo Institute for Economic Research and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)}, language = {de} } @unpublished{RoeslSeitz, author = {R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and Seitz, Franz}, title = {On the Stabilizing Role of Cash for Societies}, address = {Frankfurt am Main}, organization = {Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability, Goethe University Frankfurt}, pages = {54}, abstract = {In this paper, we focus on the stabilizing role of cash from a society-wide perspective. Starting with conceptual remarks on the importance of money for the economy in general, special attention is paid to the unique characteristics of cash. As these become apparent especially during crisis periods, a comparison of the Great Depression (1929 - 1933) and the Great Recession 2008/09 shows the devastating effects of a severe monetary contraction and how a fully elastic provision of cash can help to avoid such a situation. We find interesting similarities to both crises in two separate case studies, one on the demonetization in India 2016 and the other on cash supply during various crises in Greece since 2008. The paper concludes that supply-driven cash withdrawals from circulation (either by demonetization or by capital controls) destabilize the economy if electronic payment substitutes are not instantly available. However, as there is no perfect substitute for cash due to its unique properties, from the viewpoint of the society as a whole an efficient payment mix necessarily includes cash: It helps to stabilize the economy not only in times of crises in general, no matter which government is in place. Consequently, it should be the undisputed task of central banks to ensure that cash remains in circulation in normal times and is provided in a fully elastic way in times of crisis.}, language = {en} } @article{BeckPrinzSorgeetal., author = {Beck, Hanno and Prinz, Aloys and Sorge, Christoph and Winter, Heike and W{\"o}rlen, Heike and R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and Seitz, Franz}, title = {Paying with Cash - an Outdated Model? | Mit Bargeld zahlen - ein Auslaufmodell?}, series = {Wirtschaftsdienst : Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Wirtschaftspolitik}, volume = {95}, journal = {Wirtschaftsdienst : Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Wirtschaftspolitik}, number = {8}, publisher = {ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft}, pages = {515 -- 528}, abstract = {Die Digitalisierung hat neben Kreditkarten auch unterschiedliche Bezahlsysteme m{\"o}glich gemacht. Mittlerweile sind diese neuen Systeme auf dem Weg, das Bargeld abzul{\"o}sen. Tats{\"a}chlich gibt es aus der Wissenschaft sogar Empfehlungen, das Bargeld ganz abzuschaffen. Die Autoren des Zeitgespr{\"a}chs setzen sich mit den Argumenten f{\"u}r die Abschaffung auseinander und kommen zu dem Ergebnis, dass Bargeld wichtige Funktionen hat, auf die nicht so leicht verzichtet werden sollte.}, language = {de} } @article{BartzschRoeslSeitz, author = {Bartzsch, Nikolaus and R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and Seitz, Franz}, title = {Sch{\"a}tzungen des In- und Auslandsumlaufs von Euro-Banknoten}, series = {Wirtschaftsdienst : Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Wirtschaftspolitik}, volume = {92}, journal = {Wirtschaftsdienst : Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Wirtschaftspolitik}, number = {5}, publisher = {ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft}, pages = {345 -- 351}, abstract = {Seit der Einf{\"u}hrung des Euro-Bargelds ist der Umlauf deutscher Banknoten außerordentlich stark gestiegen. Vor allem der Auslandsumlauf spielt dabei eine Rolle - und hier wiederum der Umlauf außerhalb des Euroraums. Die Autoren sch{\"a}tzen die regionale Verteilung dieses Umlaufs mithilfe verschiedener Methoden und kommen zu dem Ergebnis, dass der Anteil der inl{\"a}ndischen Geldnachfrage f{\"u}r Transaktionskasse und f{\"u}r die Wertaufbewahrung nur bei rund einem Drittel des gesamten Umlaufs deutscher Euro-Banknoten liegt.}, language = {de} } @article{BartzschRoeslSeitz, author = {Bartzsch, Nikolaus and R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and Seitz, Franz}, title = {Currency movements within and outside a currency union: The case of Germany and the euro area}, series = {Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance}, volume = {53}, journal = {Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance}, number = {4}, publisher = {Elsevier}, doi = {10.1016/j.qref.2013.05.008}, pages = {393 -- 401}, abstract = {In this paper, we analyse the volume of euro banknotes issued by Germany within the euro area with several seasonal methods. We draw a distinction between movements within Germany, circulation outside Germany but within the euro area and demand from non-euro-area countries. Our approach suggests that only about 20\% of euro notes issued by Germany are used for transactions in Germany. The rest is hoarded (10\%), circulates in other euro area countries (25\%) or is held outside the euro area (45\%).}, language = {en} }