@book{RoeslSeitz, author = {R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and Seitz, Franz}, title = {SARS-Cov-2 und Bargeld: Wie ein Virus die weltweite Bargeldnachfrage f{\"o}rdert}, address = {Regensburg}, organization = {Ostbayerische Technische Hochschule Regensburg / Fakult{\"a}t Betriebswirtschaft}, isbn = {978-3-96256-004-1}, doi = {10.35096/othr/pub-797}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:898-opus4-7979}, publisher = {Ostbayerische Technische Hochschule Regensburg}, pages = {19}, abstract = {Wir zeigen, dass die g{\"a}ngige These, Bargeld w{\"u}rde wegen des zunehmenden Einsatzes elektronischer Zahlungsmittel generell immer st{\"a}rker an Bedeutung verlieren, sowohl im weltweiten Maßstab als auch in den Emissionsl{\"a}ndern der international nachfragten Sorten(USD, EUR,CHF, GBPund JPY) als klar widerlegt angesehen werden kann.Besonderes Augenmerk legen wir dabeiauf die Entwicklung der Bargeldnachfrage in Krisenphasen. Hierunterscheiden wir zwischen drei verschiedenen Typen von Krisen (technologische Krisen, Finanzmarktkrisen, Naturkatastrophen) und untersuchen jeweils die krisenbedingte Nachfrage nach großen und kleinen Denominationen von Banknotenseit 1990. Dabei zeigt sich als generelles Krisen-Charakteristikum, dassin derartigenunsicheren Zeiten die Bargeldnachfrage unabh{\"a}ngig von der speziellen Art der Krise immer ansteigt. Dahinterstehen sowohl Transaktions - als auch Hortungsmotive. Die v{\"o}llig elastische Befriedigung dieser Nachfrage durch die Zentralbanken hilft die jeweilige Situation zu beruhigen und die Unsicherheit zu reduzieren. Vor diesem Hintergrund sind Forderungen nach der Abschaffung von Bargeld {\"a}ußerst kritisch zu sehen.}, language = {de} } @article{BartzschRoeslSeitz, author = {Bartzsch, Nikolaus and R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and Seitz, Franz}, title = {Estimating the foreign circulation of banknotes}, series = {Economics Letters}, volume = {119}, journal = {Economics Letters}, number = {2}, publisher = {Elsevier}, doi = {10.1016/j.econlet.2013.02.017}, pages = {165 -- 167}, abstract = {In this paper, we analyze the volume of Euro banknotes issued by Germany and circulating in other Euro area countries as well as outside the Euro area with a banknotes' age model. Our approach suggests that about 60\% of banknotes, the equivalent of around € 225 billion, is held abroad. Highlights ► We analyze the volume of Euro banknotes issued by Germany and circulating abroad. ► We use a model of the age of banknotes. ► The model captures demand from other Euro area countries and outside the Euro area. ► About 60\% of "German" banknotes (€ 225 billion) are held abroad.}, language = {en} } @unpublished{BartzschRoeslSeitz, author = {Bartzsch, Nikolaus and R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and Seitz, Franz}, title = {Der Auslandsumlauf Deutscher Euro-Banknoten: Sch{\"a}tzung Mit Indirekten Ans{\"a}tzen}, publisher = {SSRN}, doi = {10.2139/ssrn.2785412}, abstract = {In dem vorliegenden Papier versuchen wir den Bestand der Euro-Banknoten zu ermitteln, der sich von der deutschen Banknotenemission im Ausland befindet. Dabei unterscheiden wir nach Best{\"a}nden, die außerhalb des Euro-W{\"a}hrungsraumes gehalten werden, und solchen, die in anderen L{\"a}ndern der EWU zirkulieren. Die Analyse basiert auf Ans{\"a}tzen, die den Auslandsumlauf auf indirektem Wege absch{\"a}tzen. Der Untersuchungszeitraum reicht von 2002 bis 2009. Wir finden heraus, dass Ende 2009 insgesamt rund zwei Drittel der deutschen kumulierten Nettoemissionen im Ausland umliefen. Der gr{\"o}ßte Teil, etwa 160 Mrd. €, befand sich außerhalb des Euro-Raums, der Rest - 80 Mrd. € - lief in anderen EWU-L{\"a}ndern um. Somit entsprach der Inlandsumlauf deutscher Euro-Banknoten nur rund einem Drittel aller von der Bundesbank in H{\"o}he von 350 Mrd. € in Umlauf gegebenen Banknoten. Damit werden die Ergebnisse direkter Ans{\"a}tze best{\"a}tigt.}, language = {de} } @article{RoeslSeitzToedter, author = {R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and Seitz, Franz and T{\"o}dter, Karl-Heinz}, title = {The Cost of Overcoming the Zero Lower-Bound: A Welfare Analysis}, series = {Economies}, volume = {7}, journal = {Economies}, number = {3}, publisher = {MDPI}, doi = {10.3390/economies7030067}, pages = {1 -- 18}, abstract = {To broaden the operational scope of monetary policy, several authors suggest cash abolition as an appropriate means of breaking through the zero lower-bound. We argue that the welfare costs of bypassing the zero lower-bound by getting rid of cash entirely are analytically equivalent to negative interest rates on cash holdings. Using a money-in-the-utility-function model, we measure in two ways the welfare loss consumers as money holders would be forced to bear once the zero lower-bound is broken: in terms of the amount needed to compensate consumers (compensated variation), and as excess burden (deadweight loss) imposed on the economy as a whole. We calibrated the model for the euro area and for Germany. Our findings suggest that the welfare losses of negative interest rates incurred by consumers as holders of cash and transaction balances (M3) are large and enduring, notably if implemented in the current low-interest rate environment.}, language = {en} } @unpublished{BartzschRoeslSeitz, author = {Bartzsch, Nikolaus and R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and Seitz, Franz}, title = {Foreign Demand for Euro Banknotes Issued in Germany: Estimation Using Indirect Approaches}, publisher = {SSRN}, doi = {10.2139/ssrn.2785411}, pages = {60}, abstract = {In this paper, we endeavour to determine the volume of euro banknotes issued by Germany that is in circulation outside Germany. In so doing, we draw a distinction between banknotes outstanding in non-euro-area countries and those that are in circulation in other euro-area countries. The analysis is based on approaches that estimate the volume of banknotes in circulation outside Germany indirectly. The observation period runs from 2002 to 2009. We discover that, at the end of 2009, a total of roughly two-thirds of Germany's cumulated net issuance of euro banknotes was in circulation outside Germany. The lion's share of roughly €160 billion was in non-euro-area countries, with the remaining €80 billion in other euro-area countries. Thus, the volume of German euro banknotes in circulation in Germany accounted for only roughly one-third of all banknotes issued by the Deutsche Bundesbank (€350 billion). This confirms the results of direct approaches.}, language = {en} } @unpublished{RoeslSeitz, author = {R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and Seitz, Franz}, title = {On the Stabilizing Role of Cash for Societies}, address = {Frankfurt am Main}, organization = {Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability, Goethe University Frankfurt}, pages = {54}, abstract = {In this paper, we focus on the stabilizing role of cash from a society-wide perspective. Starting with conceptual remarks on the importance of money for the economy in general, special attention is paid to the unique characteristics of cash. As these become apparent especially during crisis periods, a comparison of the Great Depression (1929 - 1933) and the Great Recession 2008/09 shows the devastating effects of a severe monetary contraction and how a fully elastic provision of cash can help to avoid such a situation. We find interesting similarities to both crises in two separate case studies, one on the demonetization in India 2016 and the other on cash supply during various crises in Greece since 2008. The paper concludes that supply-driven cash withdrawals from circulation (either by demonetization or by capital controls) destabilize the economy if electronic payment substitutes are not instantly available. However, as there is no perfect substitute for cash due to its unique properties, from the viewpoint of the society as a whole an efficient payment mix necessarily includes cash: It helps to stabilize the economy not only in times of crises in general, no matter which government is in place. Consequently, it should be the undisputed task of central banks to ensure that cash remains in circulation in normal times and is provided in a fully elastic way in times of crisis.}, language = {en} } @article{BeckPrinzSorgeetal., author = {Beck, Hanno and Prinz, Aloys and Sorge, Christoph and Winter, Heike and W{\"o}rlen, Heike and R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and Seitz, Franz}, title = {Paying with Cash - an Outdated Model? | Mit Bargeld zahlen - ein Auslaufmodell?}, series = {Wirtschaftsdienst : Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Wirtschaftspolitik}, volume = {95}, journal = {Wirtschaftsdienst : Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Wirtschaftspolitik}, number = {8}, publisher = {ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft}, pages = {515 -- 528}, abstract = {Die Digitalisierung hat neben Kreditkarten auch unterschiedliche Bezahlsysteme m{\"o}glich gemacht. Mittlerweile sind diese neuen Systeme auf dem Weg, das Bargeld abzul{\"o}sen. Tats{\"a}chlich gibt es aus der Wissenschaft sogar Empfehlungen, das Bargeld ganz abzuschaffen. Die Autoren des Zeitgespr{\"a}chs setzen sich mit den Argumenten f{\"u}r die Abschaffung auseinander und kommen zu dem Ergebnis, dass Bargeld wichtige Funktionen hat, auf die nicht so leicht verzichtet werden sollte.}, language = {de} } @article{BartzschRoeslSeitz, author = {Bartzsch, Nikolaus and R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and Seitz, Franz}, title = {Sch{\"a}tzungen des In- und Auslandsumlaufs von Euro-Banknoten}, series = {Wirtschaftsdienst : Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Wirtschaftspolitik}, volume = {92}, journal = {Wirtschaftsdienst : Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Wirtschaftspolitik}, number = {5}, publisher = {ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft}, pages = {345 -- 351}, abstract = {Seit der Einf{\"u}hrung des Euro-Bargelds ist der Umlauf deutscher Banknoten außerordentlich stark gestiegen. Vor allem der Auslandsumlauf spielt dabei eine Rolle - und hier wiederum der Umlauf außerhalb des Euroraums. Die Autoren sch{\"a}tzen die regionale Verteilung dieses Umlaufs mithilfe verschiedener Methoden und kommen zu dem Ergebnis, dass der Anteil der inl{\"a}ndischen Geldnachfrage f{\"u}r Transaktionskasse und f{\"u}r die Wertaufbewahrung nur bei rund einem Drittel des gesamten Umlaufs deutscher Euro-Banknoten liegt.}, language = {de} } @article{BartzschRoeslSeitz, author = {Bartzsch, Nikolaus and R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and Seitz, Franz}, title = {Currency movements within and outside a currency union: The case of Germany and the euro area}, series = {Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance}, volume = {53}, journal = {Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance}, number = {4}, publisher = {Elsevier}, doi = {10.1016/j.qref.2013.05.008}, pages = {393 -- 401}, abstract = {In this paper, we analyse the volume of euro banknotes issued by Germany within the euro area with several seasonal methods. We draw a distinction between movements within Germany, circulation outside Germany but within the euro area and demand from non-euro-area countries. Our approach suggests that only about 20\% of euro notes issued by Germany are used for transactions in Germany. The rest is hoarded (10\%), circulates in other euro area countries (25\%) or is held outside the euro area (45\%).}, language = {en} } @article{BartzschRoeslSeitz, author = {Bartzsch, Nikolaus and R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and Seitz, Franz}, title = {A simple way to capture currency abroad}, series = {Applied Economics Letters}, volume = {19}, journal = {Applied Economics Letters}, number = {15}, publisher = {Routledge}, address = {Abingdon}, doi = {10.1080/13504851.2011.637886}, pages = {1511 -- 1514}, abstract = {In this article, we analyse the volume of euro banknotes issued by Germany that circulate abroad. Inferences are drawn from a coin model. Our approach suggests that foreign demand has increased since 2002. At the end of 2009 nearly 50\%, the equivalent of €170 billion, is held outside the euro area.}, language = {en} } @article{RoeslSeitz, author = {R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and Seitz, Franz}, title = {Cash demand in times of crisis}, series = {Journal of Payments Strategy and Systems}, volume = {16}, journal = {Journal of Payments Strategy and Systems}, number = {2}, publisher = {Ingenta}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {1750-1814}, pages = {107 -- 119}, abstract = {This paper focuses on the role of specific types of crisis (technological crisis, financial market crisis, natural disaster) and their effects on the demand for cash in an international context. As evidence from the last 30 years shows, demand for cash increases during periods of crisis, regardless of the nature of the crisis. The nature of the crisis does, however, determine whether small or large banknote denominations are affected more. This study finds that times of payment uncertainties are associated with increased demand for small denominations, probably reflecting an elevated demand for transaction balances. By contrast, in times of financial crisis or general economic uncertainty, the increased demand for cash is largely the result of consumers taking precautionary actions and building up non-transaction balances; for this reason, there is greater demand for large banknote denominations. This study finds that cash continues to play an important role in crisis management. Whether this function can also be fulfilled by a future central bank digital currency, however, remains to be seen.}, language = {en} } @article{RoeslSeitz, author = {R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and Seitz, Franz}, title = {Uncertainty, politics, and crises: The case for cash}, series = {Latin American Journal of Central Banking}, volume = {5}, journal = {Latin American Journal of Central Banking}, number = {3}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {2666-1438}, doi = {10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100128}, abstract = {We analyze the repercussions of different kinds of uncertainty on cash demand, including uncertainty of cashless infrastructures, confidence crises of the financial system, natural disasters, political uncertainties, and inflationary crises. Based on a comprehensive literature survey and complemented by case studies, we derive a classification scheme how cash holdings typically evolved in each of these types of uncertainty over the past 30 years by separating between demand for domestic and international cash as well as between transaction and store of value balances. Hereby, we focus on the stabilizing macroeconomic properties of cash and recommendguidelines for cash supply by central banks and the banking system. Finally, we exemplify ouranalysis with five case studies from the developing world, namely Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya.}, language = {en} } @article{RoeslSeitz, author = {R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and Seitz, Franz}, title = {Central Bank Digital Currency and Cash in the Euro Area: Current Developments and one Specific Proposal}, series = {Credit and Capital Markets - Kredit und Kapital}, volume = {55}, journal = {Credit and Capital Markets - Kredit und Kapital}, number = {4}, publisher = {Duncker \& Humblot}, address = {Berlin}, doi = {10.3790/ccm.55.4.523}, pages = {523 -- 551}, abstract = {The present paper provides an overview on current developments of cash usage and issue of central bank digital currency (CBDC) in the euro area and proposes a possible design of a digital euro that allows for instant offline payments. Cash usage at the point-of-sale decreased perceptibly in the past years mainly due to the ongoing trend towards digitalization. However, we show that there are also indications that consumers were somewhat pushed into cashless payments by government regulations and supply-side restrictions by commercial banks. Nonetheless, overall demand for euro cash remained strong and even increased relative to GDP since the financial crisis in 2008. In this process, however, we observe a supply-driven shift towards lower banknote denominations. Central banks all over the world are intensively thinking about the potential issue of ­CBDC as a substitute or complement to cash. Based on some of its preferred characteristics, we propose a double pre-paid scheme combining central elements of TARGET Instant Payment Settlement and electronic money features enabling offline and online instant payments. Since anonymity is categorically discarded by the ECB and as cash has some special advantages from a consumer perspective, the digital euro will rather co-circulate with cash than replace it in transactions.}, language = {en} } @techreport{RoeslSeitz, type = {Working Paper}, author = {R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and Seitz, Franz}, title = {Cash and Crises: No surprises by the virus}, publisher = {Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability}, pages = {33 S.}, language = {en} } @article{RoeslSeitz, author = {R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and Seitz, Franz}, title = {Doing away with cash? The welfare costs of abolishing cash}, series = {IMFS Working Papers}, journal = {IMFS Working Papers}, number = {112}, publisher = {Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability}, language = {en} } @article{BartzschRoeslSeitz, author = {Bartzsch, Nikolaus and R{\"o}sl, Gerhard and Seitz, Franz}, title = {Cash demand in times of crises: a global perspective}, series = {Bank \& Credit}, volume = {56}, journal = {Bank \& Credit}, number = {01}, publisher = {Index Copernicus}, address = {Warsaw}, doi = {10.5604/01.3001.0054.9611}, pages = {1 -- 44}, abstract = {We analyse the repercussions of different kinds of crises on cash demand in an international perspective. Our case studies are based on time series of banknotes in circulation in a selection of 16 countries and currency areas across all continents over the period from 1990 to 2022. We distinguish between six different kinds of crises: (1) uncertainty of the digital infrastructure, (2) confidence crises of the financial system, (3) natural disasters, (4) political crises, (5) inflationary crises, and (6) exchange rate crises. Our case studies suggest that crises are likely to have contributed to the dynamic growth in demand for banknotes in the countries analysed. This applies both to small and large banknote denominations.}, language = {en} }