@article{RetiefDiamantidisBarnardoViljoenetal., author = {Retief, Johan Verster and Diamantidis, Dimitris and Barnardo-Viljoen, Celeste and van der Klashorst, Etienne}, title = {Extreme actions and climate change: experience gained in South Africa and Germany}, series = {Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems}, volume = {31}, journal = {Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems}, number = {2}, publisher = {Taylor \& Francis}, address = {Abingdon}, issn = {1029-0249}, doi = {10.1080/10286608.2014.912640}, pages = {179 -- 188}, abstract = {The results of a survey of climate change developments in South Africa and Germany from the perspective of its relevance to extreme actions on infrastructure are presented in this paper. It is concluded that the importance of climate change is broad and varied. However incorporation into practice is mostly nominal. Although general trends of climate change are confirmed, proper information on changes in extreme conditions is limited. Coastal engineering seems to be the field which is most active in providing for climate change. It is concluded that risk-based methodologies developed to treat the variability and uncertainties of extreme actions and consequences in present practice provide a sound basis for treating the effects of climate change in a rational and optimal manner. It is also clear that there is strong motivation for extensive research as the best action to be taken presently, anticipating appropriate adjustment of re-optimised design methodologies.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{SykoraHolickyRozsasetal., author = {S{\´y}kora, Miroslav and Holick{\´y}, Milan and R{\´o}zs{\´a}s, {\´A}rp{\´a}d and Barnardo-Viljoen, Celeste and Retief, Johan Verster and Diamantidis, Dimitris}, title = {Risk Based Design of Infrastructures under Extreme Actions due to Environmental Change}, series = {Life-cycle of engineering systems: emphasis on sustainable civil infrastructure, Symposium of the International Association for Life-Cycle Civil Engineering (IALCCE), 2016, Delft}, booktitle = {Life-cycle of engineering systems: emphasis on sustainable civil infrastructure, Symposium of the International Association for Life-Cycle Civil Engineering (IALCCE), 2016, Delft}, publisher = {Taylor \& Francis}, abstract = {Environmental and climate change is a global issue that will and has already impacted the frequency and intensity of natural hazards in many regions throughout the world. Consequently, the actions on structures will be changing and present design practices will need to be adapted to provide for reliable structures with service lifetimes spanning over decades and centuries. A submitted review of present environmental and climate change information is focused on the distinct, but complementary climatic conditions of Central Europe and South Africa. An outline of the basis of structural design accounting for extreme wind and snow loads is presented and recommendations for future risk-based design procedures are discussed. Issues to consider include: a) use of extreme value models; b) implementation of changes in distribution parameters to obtain extremes with long return periods; c) consideration of the rate of the change. The example of a representative structure illustrates the effects of climatic actions on structural reliability. It appears that uncertainties related to the lack of observations hinder drawing strong conclusions concerning appropriate modifications of design procedures due to environmental and climate change. Uncertainties in the prediction of environmental and climate change have a direct bearing on optimal levels of reliability and the subsequent derivation of design values.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{HolickyDiamantidisRetiefetal., author = {Holick{\´y}, Milan and Diamantidis, Dimitris and Retief, Johan Verster and Barnardo-Viljoen, Celeste}, title = {On Standardization of the Reliability Basis of Structural Design}, series = {ICASP12 : 12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, Vancouver, Canada, July 12-15, 2015}, booktitle = {ICASP12 : 12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, Vancouver, Canada, July 12-15, 2015}, publisher = {The University of British Columbia}, address = {Vancouver}, doi = {10.14288/1.0076062}, abstract = {The principles of structural reliability are sufficiently advanced to be used extensively to develop design standards even at international level. The concept of limit states is generally accepted and implemented. Present standards are however to a large extent based on past experience, rather than on quantitative reliability modeling. It appears that reliability principles and models can bridge the gap between probabilistic assessment and operational design. Representative theoretical models are presented to indicate how judgment based reliability concepts can be complemented or replaced by the use of such models. The importance of reliability levels, reference period, design working life, specified characteristic values of basic variables and methods to derive their design values from reliability procedures are demonstrated. On this basis a standardized basis of structural design can be formulated to convert the reliability principles (such as provided by ISO 2394) into operational design procedures (such as used by EN 1990 and other standards). It is concluded that reliability principles and models could contribute further to international harmonization of structural design.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{BarnardoViljoenvanderKlashorstRetiefetal., author = {Barnardo-Viljoen, Celeste and van der Klashorst, Etienne and Retief, Johan Verster and Diamantidis, Dimitris}, title = {Extreme actions and climate change: Experience gained in South Africa and Germany}, series = {Robust engineering solutions with environmental loading. The 11th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability (ICOSSAR 2013), New York, USA}, booktitle = {Robust engineering solutions with environmental loading. The 11th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability (ICOSSAR 2013), New York, USA}, publisher = {Inderscience Enterprises Ltd}, abstract = {Since resistance against extreme environmental actions explicitly forms part of the basis of structural design, the implications of climate change emphatically needs to be considered. This paper presents the results of a survey of climate change developments in South Africa and Germany from the perspective of its rele-vance to extreme actions on infrastructure. It is concluded that the importance of climate change is broad and varied. However incorporation into practice is mostly nominal. Although general trends of climate change are confirmed, proper information on changes in extreme conditions is limited. Coastal engineering seems to be the field which is most active in providing for climate change. It is concluded that risk based methodologies developed to treat the variability and uncertainties of extreme actions and consequences in present practice provide a sound basis for treating the effects of climate change in a rational and optimal manner. It is also clear that there is strong motivation for extensive research as the best action to be taken presently, anticipating appropriate adjustment of reoptimized design methodologies.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{RetiefDiamantidisBarnardoViljoenetal., author = {Retief, Johan Verster and Diamantidis, Dimitris and Barnardo-Viljoen, Celeste and van der Klashorst, Etienne}, title = {Application of Risk Based Infrastructure Design Concepts to provision for climate change}, series = {American Meteorological Society (AMS), 94th AMS annual meeting, Atlanta, Georgia, USA}, booktitle = {American Meteorological Society (AMS), 94th AMS annual meeting, Atlanta, Georgia, USA}, publisher = {American Meteorological Society}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{DiamantidisSykoraBarnardoViljoenetal., author = {Diamantidis, Dimitris and S{\´y}kora, Miroslav and Barnardo-Viljoen, Celeste and Retief, Johan Verster and R{\´o}zs{\´a}s, {\´A}rp{\´a}d}, title = {On Risk-Based Design of Structures Exposed to Changing Climatic Actions}, series = {Life-Cycle of Engineering Systems : Emphasis on Sustainable Civil Infrastructure ; The Fifth International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering (IALCCE 2016) 16-20 October 2016, Delft, The Netherlands}, booktitle = {Life-Cycle of Engineering Systems : Emphasis on Sustainable Civil Infrastructure ; The Fifth International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering (IALCCE 2016) 16-20 October 2016, Delft, The Netherlands}, editor = {Bakker, Jaap and Frangopol, Dan M. and Van Breugel, Klaas}, publisher = {Taylor \& Francis}, address = {London ; Boca Raton}, isbn = {978-1-138-02847-0}, language = {en} } @incollection{RetiefBarnardoViljoenvanderKlashorstetal., author = {Retief, Johan Verster and Barnardo-Viljoen, Celeste and van der Klashorst, Etienne and Diamantidis, Dimitris}, title = {Extreme actions and climate change}, series = {Safety, Reliability, Risk and Life-Cycle Performance of Structures and Infrastructures : proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability, New York, USA, 16-20 June 2013}, booktitle = {Safety, Reliability, Risk and Life-Cycle Performance of Structures and Infrastructures : proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability, New York, USA, 16-20 June 2013}, editor = {Deodatis, George and Ellingwood, Bruce and Frangopol, Dan M.}, publisher = {CRC Press}, address = {London}, isbn = {9780429227950}, pages = {1543 -- 1550}, language = {en} }