Information Framing and Student Decisions: Evidence from an Opportunity Cost Intervention

  • Opportunity costs are central to economic decision-making but often neglected. In a pre-registered experiment with 2,222 German university freshmen, one treatment provides salary information; another additionally frames it as the opportunity cost of delayed graduation. Only the opportunity cost framing causes students to update salary expectations. We find no effect on academic progress but a 2.8 percentage points increase in first-semester dropout (p = 0.080), concentrated among high-ropout-probability students (5.9 pp, p = 0.025). For these marginal students, dropping out instead of progressing faster is the actionable margin. By semester three, dropout rates converge, suggesting acceleration of eventual exits rather than additional dropouts.

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Metadaten
Author:Lars Behlen, Raphael Brade, Oliver Himmler, Robert JäckleORCiD
URL / DOI:https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp12487.pdf
ISSN:2364-1428
Parent Title (English):CESifo Working Papers
Publisher:Ifo Institute
Document Type:Working Paper
Language:English
Date of first Publication:2026/02/01
Release Date:2026/02/26
Tag:Academic Achievement; Earnings Expectations; Natural Field Experiment; Opportunity Cost Neglect
Issue:12487
Pagenumber:71
institutes:Fakultät Betriebswirtschaft
Research Themes:Soziale & ökonomische Transformation
Licence (German):Creative Commons - CC BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International
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