Markov state models of molecular kinetics (MSMs), in which the long-time statistical dynamics
of a molecule is approximated by a Markov chain on a discrete partition of configuration space, have
seen widespread use in recent years. This approach has many appealing characteristics compared
to straightforward molecular dynamics simulation and analysis, including the potential to mitigate
the sampling problem by extracting long-time kinetic information from short trajectories and the
ability to straightforwardly calculate expectation values and statistical uncertainties of various
stationary and dynamical molecular observables. In this article, we summarize the current state of
the art in generation and validation of MSMs and give some important new results. We describe
an upper bound for the approximation error made by modeling molecular dynamics with an MSM
and we show that this error can be made arbitrarily small with surprisingly little effort. In contrast
to previous practice, it becomes clear that the best MSM is not obtained by the most metastable
discretization, but the MSM can be much improved if non-metastable states are introduced near
the transition states. Moreover, we show that it is not necessary to resolve all slow processes
by the state space partitioning, but individual dynamical processes of interest can be resolved
separately. We also present an efficient estimator for reversible transition matrices and a robust
test to validate that an MSM reproduces the kinetics of the molecular dynamics data.
Diffusion processes are relevant for a variety of phenomena in the natural sciences, including
diffusion of cells or biomolecules within cells, diffusion of molecules on a membrane or surface,
diffusion of a molecular conformation within a complex energy landscape. Many experimental
tools exist now to track such diffusive motions in single cells or molecules, including high-resolution
light microscopy, optical tweezers, fluorescence quenching, and Förster resonance energy transfer
(FRET). Experimental observations are most often indirect and incomplete: (1) They do not
directly reveal the potential or diffusion constants that govern the diffusion process, (2) they have
limited time and space resolution, and (3) the highest-resolution experiments do not track the
motion directly but rather probe it stochastically by recording single events, such as photons,
whose properties depend on the state of the system under investigation.
Here, we propose a general Bayesian framework to model diffusion processes with nonlinear
drift based on incomplete observations as generated by various types of experiments. A maximum
penalized likelihood estimator is given as well as a Gibbs sampling method that allows to estimate
the trajectories that have caused the measurement, the nonlinear drift or potential function and
the noise or diffusion matrices, as well as uncertainty estimates of these properties. The approach
is illustrated on numerical simulations of FRET experiments where it is shown that trajectories,
potentials and diffusion constants can be efficiently and reliably estimated even in cases with little
statistics or non-equilibrium measurement conditions.
Large-scale stochastic models are relevant in many different fields such as com- putational biology, finance, social sciences, communication and traffic networks. In order to both efficiently simulate and analyze such models and to understand the essential properties of the sys- tem, it is desirable to have model reduction techniques that much reduce the dimensionality of the model while at the same time preserving the system’s essential dynamical properties. In this paper, a general model reduction technique for the class of discrete space and time Hidden Markov Models is presented, thereby also including the more special class discrete Markov Chains. The method is illustrated on some model applications.
In this paper, we present a Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) model for the transition
matrices (TMs) of Markov chains (MCs) by assuming the existence of a neighborhood relationship
between states, and develop the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimators under different obser-
vation conditions. Unlike earlier work on TM estimation, our method can make full use of the
similarity between different states to improve the estimated accuracy, and the estimator can be
performed very efficiently by solving a convex programming problem. In addition, we discuss the
parameter choice of the proposed model, and introduce a Monte Carlo cross validation (MCCV)
method. The numerical simulations of a diffusion process are employed to show the effectiveness
of the proposed models and algorithms.
Hybrid systems are often used to describe many complex dynamic phenomena by combining multiple modes of
dynamics into whole systems. In this paper, we present a flat Dirichlet process switching (FDPS) model that defines
a prior on mode switching dynamics of hybrid systems. Compared with the classical Markovian jump system (MJS)
models, the FDPS model is nonparametric and can be applied to the hybrid systems with an unbounded number of
potential modes. On the other hand, the probability structure of the new model is simpler and more flexible than the
recently proposed hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) based MJS. Furthermore, we develop a Markov chain Monte
Carlo (MCMC) method for estimating the states of hybrid systems with FDPS prior. And the numerical simulations
of a hybrid system in different conditions are employed to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
We consider a semilinear parabolic equation subject to a nonlinear dynamical boundary condition that is related to the so-calles Wentzell boundary condition. First, we prove the existence and uniqueness of global solutions as well as the existence of a global attractor. Then we derive a suitable Lojasiewicz-Simon-type inequality to show the convergence of global solutions to single steady states as time tends to infinity under the assumption that the nonlinear terms $f$, $g$ are real analytic. Moreover, we provide an estimate for the convergence rate.