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Bovine fertility is the subject of extensive research in animal sciences,
especially because fertility of dairy cows has declined during the last
decades. The regulation of estrus is controlled by the complex interplay
of various organs and hormones. Mathematical modeling of the bovine
estrous cycle could help in understanding the dynamics of this complex
biological system. In this paper we present a mechanistic mathematical
model of the bovine estrous cycle that includes the processes of follicle
and corpus luteum development and the key hormones that interact to
control these processes. The model generates successive estrous cycles of
21 days, with three waves of follicle growth per cycle. The model contains
12 differential equations and 54 parameters. Focus in this paper is on
development of the model, but also some simulation results are presented,
showing that a set of equations and parameters is obtained that describes
the system consistent with empirical knowledge. Even though the majority
of the mechanisms that are included in the model are based on relations
that in literature have only been described qualitatively (i.e. stimulation
and inhibition), the output of the model is surprisingly well in line with
empirical data. This model of the bovine estrous cycle could be used
as a basis for more elaborate models with the ability to study effects of
external manipulations and genetic differences.
This study presents a differential equation model for the feedback mechanisms between
Gonadotropin-releasing Hormone (GnRH), Follicle-Stimulating Hormone (FSH), Luteinizing
Hormone (LH), development of follicles and corpus luteum, and the production of estradiol
(E2), progesterone (P4), inhibin A (IhA), and inhibin B (IhB) during the female menstrual
cycle. In contrast to other models, this model does not involve delay differential equations
and is based on deterministic modelling of the GnRH pulse pattern, which allows for faster
simulation times and efficient parameter identification. These steps were essential to tackle
the task of developing a mathematical model for the administration of GnRH analogues. The
focus of this paper is on model development for GnRH receptor binding and the integration of
a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model for the GnRH agonist Nafarelin and the GnRH
antagonist Cetrorelix into the menstrual cycle model. The final mathematical model describes
the hormone profiles (LH, FSH, P4, E2) throughout the menstrual cycle in 12 healthy women.
Moreover, it correctly predicts the changes in the cycle following single and multiple dose
administration of Nafarelin or Cetrorelix at different stages in the cycle.
Our model of the bovine estrous cycle is a set of ordinary differential equations which generates hormone profiles of successive estrous cycles with several follicular waves per cycle. It describes the growth and decay of the follicles and the corpus luteum, as well as the change of the key substances over time. In this work we describe recent improvements of this model, including the introduction of new components, and elimination of time delays. We validate our model by showing that the simulations agree with observations from synchronization studies and with measured progesterone data after a single dose administration of synthetic prostaglandin F2alpha.