A popular model to describe credit risk in practice is CreditRisk
+
and in
this paper a Fourier inversion to obtain the distribution of the credit loss is
proposed. A deeper analysis of the Fourier transformation showed that there
are at least two methods to obtain the distribution although the corresponding
characteristic function is not integrable.
The CreditRisk
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model will be extended such, that general dependent sec-
tor variables can be taken into consideration, for example dependent lognormal
sector variables. Then the transfer to a continuous time model will be per-
formed and the sector variables become processes, more precisely geometric
Brownian motions.
To have a time continuous credit risk model is an important step to combine
this model with market risk. Additionally a portfolio model will be presented
where the changes of the spreads are driven by the sector variables. Using a
linear expansion of the market risk, the distribution of this portfolio can be
determined. In the special case that there is no credit risk, this model yields
the well known Delta normal approach for market risk, hence a link between
credit risk and market risk has been established.
The CreditRisk model launched by CSFB in 1997 is widely used by practitioners in the banking sector as a simple means for the quantification of credit
risk, primarily of the loan book. We present an alternative numerical recursion scheme for CreditRisk, equivalent to an algorithm recently proposed by
Giese, based on well-known expansions of the logarithm and the exponential
of a power series. We show that it is advantageous to the Panjer recursion
advocated in the original CreditRisk
document, in that it is numerically stable. The crucial stability arguments are explained in detail. Furthermore, the
computational complexity of the resulting algorithm is stated.
We introduce a new Monte Carlo method for constructing the exercise
boundary of an American option in a generalized Black-Scholes framework.
Based on a known exercise boundary, it is shown how to price and hedge the
American option by Monte Carlo simulation of suitable probabilistic represen-
tations in connection with the respective parabolic boundary value problem.
The methods presented are supported by numerical simulation experiments.
We derive a link between the short rate and a new index constructed in a multiasset
economy. This uses two structural assumptions: The volatility structure
of the assets is rigidly spherical , and the short rate function is homogeneous of
degree 0. We give clear motivations for the assumptions, and our main result is
economically intuitive and testable from observed data. A preliminary empirical
study illustrates how one can test such results.