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A strategy for controlling the stepsize in the numerical integration of stochastic
differential equations (SDEs) is presented. It is based on estimating the p-th mean of
local errors. The strategy leads to deterministic stepsize sequences that are identical
for all paths. For the family of Euler schemes for SDEs with small noise we derive
computable estimates for the dominating term of the p-th mean of local errors
and show that the strategy becomes efficient for reasonable stepsizes. Numerical
experience is reported for test examples including scalar SDEs and a stochastic
circuit model.
We study perturbations of a stochastic program with a probabilistic constraint and r-concave original probability distribution. First we improve our earlier results substantially and provide conditions implying Hölder continuity properties of the solution sets w.r.t. the Kolmogorov distance of probability distributions. Secondly, we derive an upper Lipschitz continuity property for solution sets under more restrictive conditions on the original program and on the perturbed probability measures. The latter analysis applies to linear-quadratic models and is based on work by Bonnans and Shapiro. The stability results are illustrated by numerical tests showing the different asymptotic behaviour of parametric and nonparametric estimates in a program with a normal probabilistic constraint.
We consider stochastic programs with risk measures in the objective and study
stability properties as well as decomposition structures. Thereby we place emphasis on dynamic
models, i.e., multistage stochastic programs with multiperiod risk measures. In this context, we
define the class of polyhedral risk measures such that stochastic programs with risk measures taken
from this class have favorable properties. Polyhedral risk measures are defined as optimal values of
certain linear stochastic programs where the arguments of the risk measure appear on the right-hand
side of the dynamic constraints. Dual representations for polyhedral risk measures are derived and
used to deduce criteria for convexity and coherence. As examples of polyhedral risk measures we
propose multiperiod extensions of the Conditional-Value-at-Risk.
An important issue for solving multistage stochastic programs consists in the approximate representation of the (multivariate) stochastic input process in the form of a scenario tree. In this paper, forward and backward approaches are developed for generating scenario trees out of an initial fan of individual scenarios. Both approaches are motivated by the recent stability result in [15] for optimal values of multistage stochastic programs. They are based on upper bounds for the two relevant ingredients of the stability estimate, namely, the probabilistic and the filtration distance, respectively. These bounds allow to control the process of recursive scenario reduction [13] and branching. Numerical experience is reported for constructing multivariate scenario trees in electricity portfolio management.
We present an applied mathematical model with stochastic input data for mean-risk optimization of electricity portfolios containing electricity futures as well as several components to satisfy a stochastic electricity demand: electricity spot market, two different types of supply contracts offered by a large power producer, and a combined heat and power production facility with limited capacity. Stochasticity enters the model via uncertain electricity demand, heat demand, spot prices, and future prices. The model is set up as a decision support system for a municipal power utility (price taker) and considers a medium term optimization horizon of one year in hourly discretization. The objective is to maximize the expected overall revenue and, simultaneously, to minimize risk in terms of multiperiod risk measures. Such risk measures take into account intermediate cash values in order to avoid uncertainty and liquidity problems at any time. We compare the effect of different multiperiod risk measures taken from the class of polyhedral risk measures which was suggested in our earlier work.
Modern electricity portfolio and risk management models represent multistage stochastic programs. The input of such programs consists in a finite set of scenarios having the form of a scenario tree. They model the probabilistic information on random data (electrical load, stream flows to hydro units, market prices of fuel and electricity). Since the corresponding deterministic equivalents of multistage stochastic programs are mostly large scale, one has to find significant tree-structured scenarios. Our approach to generate multivariate scenario trees is based on recursive deletion and bundling of scenarios out of some given (possibly large) scenario set originating from historical or simulated data. The procedure makes use of certain Monge-Kantorovich transportation distances for multivariate probability distributions. We report on computational results for generating load-inflow scenario
trees based on realistic data of EDF Electricité de France.
Bei der Produktions- und Handelsplanung treffen Energieversorgungsunternehmen eine Reihe von Entscheidungen unter unsicheren Randbedingungen. Ein Optimierungsmodell für einen mittelfristigen Planungshorizont muss diese Unsicherheiten berücksichtigen, etwa durch Einbeziehung von statistischen Modellen für die zufallsbehafteten Eingangsdaten. Dadurch ist es prinzipiell möglich, Risikobetrachtungen direkt in die Optimierung zu integrieren. Wir demonstrieren in dieser Arbeit die Möglichkeit, spezielle dynamische Risikomaße, so genannte polyedrische Risikomaße, in die Zielfunktion der Optimierung mit aufzunehmen. Im Gegensatz zu vielen anderen Ansätzen wird dadurch die Komplexität des Problems nicht wesentlich erhöht. Das vorgestellte Modell stellt ein Werkzeug zur Entscheidungsunterstützung für kleinere Marktteilnehmer hinsichtlich der Beschaffungsplanung dar. Dabei werden insbesondere konkrete mittelfristig bindende Bezugsverträge mit der Möglichkeit verglichen, die Versorgung in erster Linie auf der Basis von Spot- und Futuremarkt zu planen.
Mixed-integer two-stage stochastic programs with fixed recourse matrix, random recourse costs, technology matrix, and right-hand sides are considered. Quantitative continuity properties of its optimal value and solution set are derived when the underlying probability distribution is perturbed with respect to an appropriate probability metric.
Discrete approximations to chance constrained and mixed-integer two-stage stochastic programs require moderately sized scenario
sets. The relevant distances of (multivariate) probability
distributions for deriving quantitative stability results for such stochastic programs are $\mathcal{B}$-discrepancies, where the class $\mathcal{B}$ of Borel sets depends on their structural properties.
Hence, the optimal scenario reduction problem for such models is stated with respect to $\mathcal{B}$-discrepancies. In this paper,
upper and lower bounds, and some explicit solutions for optimal scenario reduction problems are derived. In addition, we develop
heuristic algorithms for determining nearly optimally reduced probability measures, discuss the case of the cell discrepancy (or
Kolmogorov metric) in some detail and provide some numerical experience.