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- Weighted histogram analysis method (WHAM) (1)
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Dynamical averages based on functionals of dynamical trajectories, such as time-correlation func-
tions, play an important role in determining kinetic or transport properties of matter. At temperatures
of interest, the expectations of these quantities are often dominated by contributions from rare events,
making the precise calculation of these quantities by molecular dynamics simulation difficult. Here,
we present a reweighting method for combining simulations from multiple temperatures (or from
simulated or parallel tempering simulations) to compute an optimal estimate of the dynamical prop-
erties at the temperature of interest without the need to invoke an approximate kinetic model (such as
the Arrhenius law). Continuous and differentiable estimates of these expectations at any temperature
in the sampled range can also be computed, along with an assessment of the associated statistical
uncertainty. For rare events, aggregating data from multiple temperatures can produce an estimate
of the desired precision at greatly reduced computational cost compared with simulations conducted
at a single temperature. Here, we describe use of the method for the canonical (NVT) ensemble us-
ing four common models of dynamics (canonical distribution of Hamiltonian trajectories, Andersen
thermostatting, Langevin, and overdamped Langevin or Brownian dynamics), but it can be applied to
any thermodynamic ensemble provided the ratio of path probabilities at different temperatures can be
computed. To illustrate the method, we compute a time-correlation function for solvated terminally-
blocked alanine peptide across a range of temperatures using trajectories harvested using a modified
parallel tempering protocol.
Markov state models of molecular kinetics (MSMs), in which the long-time statistical dynamics
of a molecule is approximated by a Markov chain on a discrete partition of configuration space, have
seen widespread use in recent years. This approach has many appealing characteristics compared
to straightforward molecular dynamics simulation and analysis, including the potential to mitigate
the sampling problem by extracting long-time kinetic information from short trajectories and the
ability to straightforwardly calculate expectation values and statistical uncertainties of various
stationary and dynamical molecular observables. In this article, we summarize the current state of
the art in generation and validation of MSMs and give some important new results. We describe
an upper bound for the approximation error made by modeling molecular dynamics with an MSM
and we show that this error can be made arbitrarily small with surprisingly little effort. In contrast
to previous practice, it becomes clear that the best MSM is not obtained by the most metastable
discretization, but the MSM can be much improved if non-metastable states are introduced near
the transition states. Moreover, we show that it is not necessary to resolve all slow processes
by the state space partitioning, but individual dynamical processes of interest can be resolved
separately. We also present an efficient estimator for reversible transition matrices and a robust
test to validate that an MSM reproduces the kinetics of the molecular dynamics data.
Discrete-state Markov (or master equation) models provide a useful simplified representation for
characterizing the long-time statistical evolution of biomolecules in a manner that allows direct
comparison with experiments as well as the elucidation of mechanistic pathways for an inherently
stochastic process. A vital part of meaningful comparison with experiment is the characterization of
the statistical uncertainty in the predicted experimental measurement, which may take the form of
an equilibrium measurement of some spectroscopic signal, the time-evolution of this signal following
a perturbation, or the observation of some statistic (such as the correlation function) of the equilib-
rium dynamics of a single molecule. Without meaningful error bars (which arise due to the finite
quantity of data used to construct the model), there is no way to determine whether the deviations
between model and experiment are statistically meaningful. Previous work has demonstrated that
a Bayesian method that enforces microscopic reversibility can be used to characterize the correlated
uncertainties in state-to-state transition probabilities (and functions thereof) for a model inferred from
molecular simulation data. Here, we extend this approach to include the uncertainty in observables
that are functions of molecular conformation (such as surrogate spectroscopic signals) characteriz-
ing each state, permitting the full statistical uncertainty in computed spectroscopic experiments to be
assessed. We test the approach in a simple model system to demonstrate that the computed uncer-
tainties provide a useful indictor of statistical variation, and then apply it to the computation of the
fluorescence autocorrelation function measured for a dye-labeled peptide previously studied by both
experiment and simulation.
Single-molecule force spectroscopy has proven to be a powerful tool for studying the kinetic be- havior of biomolecules. Through application of an external force, conformational states with small or transient populations can be stabilized, allowing them to be characterized and the statistics of in- dividual trajectories studied to provide insight into biomolecular folding and function. Because the observed quantity (force or extension) is not necessarily an ideal reaction coordinate, individual ob- servations cannot be uniquely associated with kinetically distinct conformations. While maximum- likelihood schemes such as hidden Markov models have solved this problem for other classes of single-molecule experiments by using temporal information to aid in the inference of a sequence of distinct conformational states, these methods do not give a clear picture of how precisely the model parameters are determined by the data due to instrument noise and finite-sample statistics, both sig- nificant problems in force spectroscopy. We solve this problem through a Bayesian extension that allows the experimental uncertainties to be directly quantified, and build in detailed balance to fur- ther reduce uncertainty through physical constraints. We illustrate the utility of this approach in characterizing the three-state kinetic behavior of an RNA hairpin in a stationary optical trap.
While seemingly straightforward in principle, the reliable estimation of rate constants is seldom easy in practice. Numerous issues, such as the complication of poor reaction coordinates, cause obvious approaches to yield unreliable estimates. When a reliable order parameter is available, the reactive flux theory of Chandler allows the rate constant to be extracted from the plateau region of an appropriate reactive flux correlation function. However, when applied to real data from single- molecule experiments or molecular dynamics simulations, the reactive flux correlation function requires the numerical differentiation of a noisy empirical correlation function, which can result in an unacceptably poor estimate of the rate and pathological dependence on the sampling interval. We present a modified version of this theory which does not require numerical derivatives, allowing rate constants to be robustly estimated from the time-correlation function directly. We illustrate the approach using single-molecule passive force spectroscopy measurements of an RNA hairpin.