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The extent to which catastrophic weather events occur strongly depends on global climate conditions such as average sea surface temperatures (SST) or sea level pressures. Some of the factors can be predicted up to a year in advance, and should therefore be taken into account in any reasonable management of weather related risk. In this paper we first set up a risk model that integrates climate factors. The we show how variance minimizing hedging strategies explicitly depend on the factors' prediction. Our analysis is based on a detailed study of the predictable representation property on the combined Poisson and Wiener spaces. Using tools of the stochastic calculus of variations we derive a representation formula of the Clark-Ocone type. Finally, we exemplify the theory developed in a case study of US hurricane risk. We derive hedging strategies taking into account that US hurricane activity strongly depends on the SST of the Pacific Ocean.
We investigate solutions of backward stochastic differential equations (BSDE) with time delayed generators driven by Brownian motions and Poisson random measures that constitute the two components of a Lévy process. In this new type of equations, the generator can depend on the past values of a solution, by feeding them back into the dynamics with a time lag. For such time delayed BSDE, we prove existence and uniqueness of solutions provided we restrict on a sufficiently small time horizon or the generator possesses a sufficiently small Lipschitz constant. We study differentiability in the variational or Malliavin sense and derive equations that are satisfied by the Malliavin gradient processes. On the chosen stochastic basis this addresses smoothness both with respect to the continuous part of our Lévy process in terms of the classical Malliavin derivative for Hilbert space valued random variables, as well as with respect to the pure jump component for which it takes the form of an increment quotient operator related to the Picard difference operator.
In this paper we consider a class of BSDE with drivers of quadratic growth, on a stochastic basis generated by continuous local martingales. We first derive the Markov property of a forward-backward system (FBSDE) if the generating martingale is a strong Markov process. Then we establish the differentiability of a FBSDE with respect to the initial value of its forward component. This enables us to obtain the main result of this article which from the perspective of a utility optimization interpretation of the underlying control problem on a financial market takes the following form. The control process of the BSDE steers the system into a random liability depending on a market external uncertainty and this way describes the optimal derivative hedge of the liability by investment in a capital market the dynamics of which is described by the forward component. This delta hedge is described in a key formula in terms of a derivative functional of the solution process and the correlation structure of the internal uncertainty captured by the forward process and the external uncertainty responsible for the market incompleteness. The formula largely extends the scope of validity of the results obtained by several authors in the Brownian setting, designed to give a genuinely stochastic representation of the optimal delta hedge in the context of cross hedging insurance derivatives generalizing the derivative hedge in the Black-Scholes model. Of course, Malliavin’s calculus needed in the Brownian setting is not available in the general local martingale framework. We replace it by new tools based on stochastic calculus techniques.
We deal with backward stochastic differential equations with time delayed generators. In this new type of equations, a generator at time t can depend on the values of a solution in the past, weighted with a time delay function for instance of the moving average type. We prove existence and uniqueness of a solution for a sufficiently small time horizon or for a sufficiently small Lipschitz constant of a generator. We give examples of BSDE with time delayed generators that have multiple solutions or that have no solutions. We show for some special class of generators that existence and uniqueness may still hold for an arbitrary time horizon and for arbitrary Lipschitz constant. This class includes linear time delayed generators, which we study in more detail. We are concerned with different properties of a solution of a BSDE with time delayed generator, including the inheritance of boundedness from the terminal condition, the comparison principle, the existence of a measure solution and the BMO martingale property. We give examples in which they may fail.
Financial markets with asymmetric information: information drift, additional utility and entropy
(2009)
We review a general mathematical link between utility and information theory appearing in a simple financial market model with two kinds of small investors: insiders, whose extra information is stored in an enlargement of the less informed agents' filtration. The insider's expected logarithmic utility increment is described in terms of the information drift, i.e. the drift one has to eliminate in order to perceive the price dynamics as a martingale from his perspective. We describe the information drift in a very general setting by natural quantities expressing the conditional laws of the better informed view of the world. This on th other hand allows to identify the additional utility by entropy related quantities known from information theory.
We solve Skorokhod's embedding problem for Brownian mostion with linear drift $(W_t + \kappa t)_{t\ge 0}$ by means of techniques of stochastic control theory. The search for a stopping time $T$ such that the law of $W_T + \kappa T$ coincides with a prescribed law $\mu$ processing the first moment is based on solutions of backward stochastic differential equations of quadratic type. Theis new approach generalizes an approach by Bass [BAS] of the classical version of Skorokhod's embedding problem using martingale representation techniques.
We consider backward stochastic differential equations (BSDE) with nonlinear generators typically of quadratic growth in the control variable. A measure solution of such a BSDE will be understood as a probability measure under which the generator is seen as vanishing, so that the classical solution can be reconstructed by a combination of the operations of conditioning and using martingale representations. In case the terminal condition ist bounded and the generator fulfills the usual continuity and boundedness conditions, we show the measure solutions with equivalent measures just reinterpret classical ones. In case of terminal conditions that have only exponentially bounded moments, we discuss a series of examples which show that in cas of non-uniqueness classical solutions that fail to be measure solutions can coexists with different measure solution.
We consider backward stochastic differential equations with drivers of quadratic growth (qgBSDE). We prove several statements concerning path regularity and stochastic smoothness of the solution processes of the qgBSDE, in particular we prove an extension of Zhang's path regularity theorem to the quadratic growth setting. We give explicit convergence rates for the difference between the solution of a qgBSDE and its truncation, filling an important gap in numerics for qgBSDE. We give an alternative proof of second order Malliavin differentiability for BSDE with drivers that are Lipschitz continuous (and differentiable), and then derive the same result for qgBSDE.
When managing energy or weather related risk often only imperfect hedging instruments are available. In the first part we illustrate problems arising with imperfect hedging by studying a toy model. We consider an airline’s problem with covering income risk due to fluctuating kerosene prices by investing into futures written on heating oil with closely correlated price dynamics. In the second part we outline recent results on exponential utility based cross hedging concepts. They highlight in a generalization of the Black-Scholes delta hedge formula to incomplete markets. Its derivation is based on a purely stochastic approach of utility maximization. It interprets stochastic control problems in the BSDE language, and profits from the power of the stochastic calculus of variations.