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Markov state models of molecular kinetics (MSMs), in which the long-time statistical dynamics
of a molecule is approximated by a Markov chain on a discrete partition of configuration space, have
seen widespread use in recent years. This approach has many appealing characteristics compared
to straightforward molecular dynamics simulation and analysis, including the potential to mitigate
the sampling problem by extracting long-time kinetic information from short trajectories and the
ability to straightforwardly calculate expectation values and statistical uncertainties of various
stationary and dynamical molecular observables. In this article, we summarize the current state of
the art in generation and validation of MSMs and give some important new results. We describe
an upper bound for the approximation error made by modeling molecular dynamics with an MSM
and we show that this error can be made arbitrarily small with surprisingly little effort. In contrast
to previous practice, it becomes clear that the best MSM is not obtained by the most metastable
discretization, but the MSM can be much improved if non-metastable states are introduced near
the transition states. Moreover, we show that it is not necessary to resolve all slow processes
by the state space partitioning, but individual dynamical processes of interest can be resolved
separately. We also present an efficient estimator for reversible transition matrices and a robust
test to validate that an MSM reproduces the kinetics of the molecular dynamics data.
While studies of protein-ligand association have mostly focused on the native complex and its
stability (binding affinity), relatively little attention has been paid on the association process
that precedes the formation of the complex. Here we review approaches to study the kinet-
ics of association and association mechanisms, i.e. the probability distribution of association
pathways. Selected methods are described that allow these properties to be calculated quan-
titatively from simulation models. We summarize some applications of these methods and
finally propose a model mechanism by which proteins may efficiently screen potential ligands
for those that can be natively bound.
Protein-ligand interactions are essential for nearly all biological processes, and yet the bio-
physical mechanism that enables potential binding partners to associate before specific binding
occurs remains poorly understood. Fundamental questions include which factors influence the
formation of protein-ligand encounter complexes, and whether designated association path-
ways exist. In this article we introduce a computational approach to systematically analyze
the complete ensemble of association pathways and to thus investigate these questions. This
approach is employed here to study the binding of a phosphate ion to the Escherichia coli
Phosphate Binding Protein. Various mutants of the protein are considered and their effects
on binding free energy profiles, association rates and association pathway distributions are
quantified. The results reveal the existence of two anion attractors, i.e. regions that initially
attract negatively charged particles and allow them to be efficiently screened for phosphate
which is specifically bound subsequently. Point mutations that affect the charge on these
attractors modulate their attraction strength and speed up association to a factor of 10 of
the diffusion limit and thus change the association pathways of the phosphate ligand. It is
demonstrated that a phosphate that pre-binds to such an attractor neutralizes its attraction
effect to the environment, making the simultaneous association of a second phosphate ion
unlikely. Our study suggests ways how structural properties can be used to tune molecular
association kinetics so as to optimize the efficiency of binding, and highlights the importance
of kinetic properties.
In many fields of physics, chemistry and biology the characterization of dynamical processes
between states or species is of fundamental interest. The central mathematical function in such sit-
uations is the committor probability - a generalized reaction coordinate that measures the progress
of the process of interest as the probability of proceeding towards the target state rather than re-
lapsing to the source state. Here, we present methodology for the efficient computation of com-
mittor probabilities for large-scale systems, such as, for example simuations of biomolecular fold-
ing. A method is derived for computing the committor for discrete state spaces using eigenvectors
with expressions for the sensitivity and a Bayesian error model for the committor. The concepts
are illustrated on two examples of diffusive dynamics with a very large number of states: a two-
dimensional model potential with three minima, and a three-dimensional model representing
protein-ligand binding. The method can finally be used to compute committor probabilities in-
cluding error estimations for medium and large system sizes allowing access to the apparatus of
transition path theory and its applications.