In this paper we develop several regression algorithms for solving general stochastic optimal control problems via Monte Carlo. This type of algorithms is particulary useful for problems with a high-dimensional state space and complex dependence structure of the underlying Markov process with respect to some control. The main idea behind the algorithms is to simulate a set of trajectories under some reference measure and to use the Bellman principle combined with fast methods for approximating conditional expectations and functional optimization. Theoretical properties of the presented algorithms are investigated and the convergence to the optimal solution is proved under mild assumptions. Finally, we present numerical results for the problem of pricing a high-dimensional Bermudan basket option under transaction costs in a financial market with a large investor.
We present two approximation methods for pricing of CMS spread options in Libor market models. Both approaches are based on approximating the underlying swap rates with lognormal processes under suitable measures. The first method is derived straightforwardly from the Libor market model. The second one uses a convexity adjustment technique under a linear swap model assumption. A numerical study demonstrates that both methods provide satisfactory approximations of spread option prices and can be used for calibration of a Libor market model to the CMS spread option market.
In a rather general setting of Itô-Lévy processes we study a class of transforms (Fourier for example) of the state variable of a process which are holomorphic in some disc around time zero in the complex plane. We show that such transforms are related to a system of analytic vectors for the generator of the process, and we state conditions which allow for holomorphic extension of these transforms into a strip which contains the positive real axis. Based on these extensions we develop a functional series expansion of these transforms in terms of the constituents of the generator. As application, we show that for multidimensional affine Itô-Lévy processes with state dependent jump part the Fourier transform is holomorphic in a time strip under some stationarity conditions, and give log-affine series representations for the transform.
In this paper we propose a Libor model with a high-dimensional specially structured system of
driving CIR volatility processes. A stable calibration procedure which takes into account
a given local correlation structure is presented. The calibration algorithm is FFT based, so fast and easy
to implement.
We present a generic non-nested Monte Carlo procedure for computing true upper bounds for Bermudan products, given an approximation of the Snell envelope. The pleonastic ``true'' stresses that, by construction, the estimator is biased above the Snell envelope. The key idea is a regression estimator for the Doob martingale part of the approximative Snell envelope, which preserves the martingale property. The so constructed martingale may be employed for computing dual upper bounds without nested simulation. In general, this martingale can also be used as a control variate for simulation of conditional expectations. In this context, we develop a variance reduced version of the nested primal-dual estimator (Anderson & Broadie (2004)) and nested consumption based (Belomestny & Milstein (2006)) methods . Numerical experiments indicate the efficiency of the non-nested Monte Carlo algorithm and the variance reduced nested one.
In this article we propose a novel approach to reduce the computational complexity
of the dual method for pricing American options. We consider a sequence of
martingales that converges to a given target martingale and decompose the original
dual representation into a sum of representations that correspond to dierent levels
of approximation to the target martingale. By next replacing in each representation
true conditional expectations with their Monte Carlo estimates, we arrive at what
one may call a multilevel dual Monte Carlo algorithm. The analysis of this algorithm
reveals that the computational complexity of getting the corresponding target upper
bound, due to the target martingale, can be signicantly reduced. In particular, it
turns out that using our new approach, we may construct a multilevel version of the
well-known nested Monte Carlo algorithm of Andersen and Broadie (2004) that is,
regarding complexity, virtually equivalent to a non-nested algorithm. The performance
of this multilevel algorithm is illustrated by a numerical example.