Trajectory- or mesh-based methods for analyzing the dynamical behavior of large
molecules tend to be impractical due to the curse of dimensionality - their computational cost increases
exponentially with the size of the molecule. We propose a method to break the curse by a
novel square root approximation of transition rates, Monte Carlo quadrature and a discretization
approach based on solving linear programs. With randomly sampled points on the molecular energy
landscape and randomly generated discretizations of the molecular conguration space as our initial
data, we construct a matrix describing the transition rates between adjacent discretization regions.
This transition rate matrix yields a Markov State Model of the molecular dynamics. We use Perron
cluster analysis and coarse-graining techniques in order to identify metastable sets in conguration
space and approximate the transition rates between the metastable sets. Application of our method
to a simple energy landscape on a two-dimensional conguration space provides proof of concept and
an example for which we compare the performance of dierent discretizations. We show that the
computational cost of our method grows only polynomially with the size of the molecule. However,
nding discretizations of higher-dimensional conguration spaces in which metastable sets can be
identied remains a challenge.
In this article we show, that the binding kinetics of a molecular system can be
identied by a projection of a continuous process onto a nite number of macro states. We thus
interpret binding kinetics as a projection. When projecting onto non-overlapping macro states the
Markovianity is spoiled. As a consequence, the description of e.g. a receptor-ligand system by a two
state kinetics is not accurate. By assigning a degree of membership to each state, we abandon the
non-overlapping approach. This overlap is crucial for a correct mapping of binding eects by Markov
State Models with regard to their long time behavior. It enables us to describe the highly discussed
rebinding eect, where the spatial arrangement of the system has the be included. By introducing
a \degree of fuzziness" we have an indicator for the strength of the rebinding eect, such that the
minimal rebinding eect can be derived from an optimization problem. The fuzziness also includes
some new paradigms for molecular kinetics. These new model paradigms show good agreement with
experimental data.
Markov State Models (MSMs) are widely used to represent molecular
conformational changes as jump-like transitions between subsets of the conformational
state space. However, the simulation of peptide folding in explicit water is
usually said to be unsuitable for the MSM framework. In this article, we summarize
the theoretical background of MSMs and indicate that explicit water simulations do
not contradict these principles. The algorithmic framework of a meshless conformational
space discretization is applied to an explicit water system and the sampling
results are compared to a long-term molecular dynamics trajectory. The meshless
discretization approach is based on spectral clustering of stochastic matrices (MSMs)
and allows for a parallelization of MD simulations. In our example of Trialanine we
were able to compute the same distribution of a long term simulation in less computing
time.
Hybrid systems are often used to describe many complex dynamic phenomena by combining multiple modes of
dynamics into whole systems. In this paper, we present a flat Dirichlet process switching (FDPS) model that defines
a prior on mode switching dynamics of hybrid systems. Compared with the classical Markovian jump system (MJS)
models, the FDPS model is nonparametric and can be applied to the hybrid systems with an unbounded number of
potential modes. On the other hand, the probability structure of the new model is simpler and more flexible than the
recently proposed hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) based MJS. Furthermore, we develop a Markov chain Monte
Carlo (MCMC) method for estimating the states of hybrid systems with FDPS prior. And the numerical simulations
of a hybrid system in different conditions are employed to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
Diffusion processes are relevant for a variety of phenomena in the natural sciences, including
diffusion of cells or biomolecules within cells, diffusion of molecules on a membrane or surface,
diffusion of a molecular conformation within a complex energy landscape. Many experimental
tools exist now to track such diffusive motions in single cells or molecules, including high-resolution
light microscopy, optical tweezers, fluorescence quenching, and Förster resonance energy transfer
(FRET). Experimental observations are most often indirect and incomplete: (1) They do not
directly reveal the potential or diffusion constants that govern the diffusion process, (2) they have
limited time and space resolution, and (3) the highest-resolution experiments do not track the
motion directly but rather probe it stochastically by recording single events, such as photons,
whose properties depend on the state of the system under investigation.
Here, we propose a general Bayesian framework to model diffusion processes with nonlinear
drift based on incomplete observations as generated by various types of experiments. A maximum
penalized likelihood estimator is given as well as a Gibbs sampling method that allows to estimate
the trajectories that have caused the measurement, the nonlinear drift or potential function and
the noise or diffusion matrices, as well as uncertainty estimates of these properties. The approach
is illustrated on numerical simulations of FRET experiments where it is shown that trajectories,
potentials and diffusion constants can be efficiently and reliably estimated even in cases with little
statistics or non-equilibrium measurement conditions.
In many fields of physics, chemistry and biology the characterization of dynamical processes
between states or species is of fundamental interest. The central mathematical function in such sit-
uations is the committor probability - a generalized reaction coordinate that measures the progress
of the process of interest as the probability of proceeding towards the target state rather than re-
lapsing to the source state. Here, we present methodology for the efficient computation of com-
mittor probabilities for large-scale systems, such as, for example simuations of biomolecular fold-
ing. A method is derived for computing the committor for discrete state spaces using eigenvectors
with expressions for the sensitivity and a Bayesian error model for the committor. The concepts
are illustrated on two examples of diffusive dynamics with a very large number of states: a two-
dimensional model potential with three minima, and a three-dimensional model representing
protein-ligand binding. The method can finally be used to compute committor probabilities in-
cluding error estimations for medium and large system sizes allowing access to the apparatus of
transition path theory and its applications.
Resolving the apparent gap in complexity between
simulated and measured kinetics of biomolecules
(2012)
Molecular simulations of biomolecules often reveal a complex picture of the their kinetics,
whereas kinetic experiments typically seem to indicate considerably simpler two- or three-state
kinetics. Markov state models (MSM) provide a tool to link between simulation and experi-
ment, and to resolve this apparent contradiction.
Markov State Models (MSMs) have become the tool of choice to analyze large amounts of molec-
ular dynamics data by approximating them as a Markov jump process between suitably predefined
states. Here we investigate ”Core Set MSMs”, a new type of MSMs that builds on metastable core
sets acting as milestones for tracing the rare event kinetics. We present a thorough analysis of Core
Set MSMs based on the existing milestoning framework, Bayesian estimation methods and Transi-
tion Path Theory (TPT). As a result, Core Set MSMs can now be used to extract phenomenological
rate constants between the metastable sets of the system and to approximate the evolution of certain
key observables. The performance of Core Set MSMs in comparison to standard MSMs is analyzed
and illustrated on a model potential and the torsion angle dynamics of Alanine dipeptide.
Markov state models of molecular kinetics (MSMs), in which the long-time statistical dynamics
of a molecule is approximated by a Markov chain on a discrete partition of configuration space, have
seen widespread use in recent years. This approach has many appealing characteristics compared
to straightforward molecular dynamics simulation and analysis, including the potential to mitigate
the sampling problem by extracting long-time kinetic information from short trajectories and the
ability to straightforwardly calculate expectation values and statistical uncertainties of various
stationary and dynamical molecular observables. In this article, we summarize the current state of
the art in generation and validation of MSMs and give some important new results. We describe
an upper bound for the approximation error made by modeling molecular dynamics with an MSM
and we show that this error can be made arbitrarily small with surprisingly little effort. In contrast
to previous practice, it becomes clear that the best MSM is not obtained by the most metastable
discretization, but the MSM can be much improved if non-metastable states are introduced near
the transition states. Moreover, we show that it is not necessary to resolve all slow processes
by the state space partitioning, but individual dynamical processes of interest can be resolved
separately. We also present an efficient estimator for reversible transition matrices and a robust
test to validate that an MSM reproduces the kinetics of the molecular dynamics data.
Dynamical averages based on functionals of dynamical trajectories, such as time-correlation func-
tions, play an important role in determining kinetic or transport properties of matter. At temperatures
of interest, the expectations of these quantities are often dominated by contributions from rare events,
making the precise calculation of these quantities by molecular dynamics simulation difficult. Here,
we present a reweighting method for combining simulations from multiple temperatures (or from
simulated or parallel tempering simulations) to compute an optimal estimate of the dynamical prop-
erties at the temperature of interest without the need to invoke an approximate kinetic model (such as
the Arrhenius law). Continuous and differentiable estimates of these expectations at any temperature
in the sampled range can also be computed, along with an assessment of the associated statistical
uncertainty. For rare events, aggregating data from multiple temperatures can produce an estimate
of the desired precision at greatly reduced computational cost compared with simulations conducted
at a single temperature. Here, we describe use of the method for the canonical (NVT) ensemble us-
ing four common models of dynamics (canonical distribution of Hamiltonian trajectories, Andersen
thermostatting, Langevin, and overdamped Langevin or Brownian dynamics), but it can be applied to
any thermodynamic ensemble provided the ratio of path probabilities at different temperatures can be
computed. To illustrate the method, we compute a time-correlation function for solvated terminally-
blocked alanine peptide across a range of temperatures using trajectories harvested using a modified
parallel tempering protocol.