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Density expansions for hypoelliptic diffusions (X1^,...,X^d) are revisited. In particular, we are interested in density expansions of the projection (X^1_T,...,X^l_T) at time $T>0$, with $l \le d$. Global conditions are found which replace the well-known ”not-in-cutlocus” condition known from heat-kernel asymptotics; cf. G. Ben Arous (88). Our small noise expansion allows for a ”second order” exponential factor. Applications include tail and implied volatility asymptotics in some correlated stochastic volatility models; in particular, we solve a problem left open by A. Gulisashvili and E.M. Stein (2009).
Using Freidlin-Wentzell sample path large deviations theory, we characterise the small-time behaviour of probabilities of a process following an uncorrelated local-stochastic volatility model.
As a corollary, we determine the small-maturity behaviour of the implied volatility under this class of processes.