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Metastability in reversible diffusion processes I. Sharp asymptotics for capcities and exit times
(2004)
We develop a potential theoretic approach to the problem of metastability for reversible diffusion processes with generators of the form +rF ( )r on R or subsets of , where F is a smooth function with finitely many local minima. In analogy to previous work in discrete Markov chains, we show that metastable exit times from the attractive domains of the minima of F can be related, up to multiplicative errors that tend to one as # 0, to the capacities of suitably constructed sets. We show that this capacities can be computed, again up to multiplicative errors that tend to one, in terms of local characteristics of F at the starting minimum and the relevant saddle points. As a result, we are able to give the first rigorous proof of the classical Eyring-Kramers formula in dimension larger than 1. The estimates on capacities make use of their variational representation and monotonicity properties of Dirichlet forms. The methods developed here are extensions of our earlier work on discrete Markov chains to continuous diffusion processes.
We continue the analysis of the problem of metastability for reversible diffusion processes,
initiated in [BEGK3], with a precise analysis of the low-lying spectrum of the generator.
Recall that we are considering processes with generators of the form 1+rF()r on Rd or subsets
of Rd , where F is a smooth function with finitely many local minima. Here we consider only
the generic situation where the depths of all local minima are different. We show that in general
the exponentially small part of the spectrum is given, up to multiplicative errors tending to one, by
the eigenvalues of the classical capacity matrix of the array of capacitors made of balls of radius
centered at the positions of the local minima of F. We also get very precise uniform control on the
corresponding eigenfunctions. Moreover, these eigenvalues can be identified with the same precision
with the inverse mean metastable exit times from each minimum. In [BEGK3] it was proven
that these mean times are given, again up to multiplicative errors that tend to one, by the classical
Eyring–Kramers formula.
Motivated by optimal investment problems in mathematical finance, we consider
a variational problem of Neyman-Pearson type for law-invariant robust utility functionals
and convex risk measures. Explicit solutions are found for quantile-based coherent
risk measures and related utility functionals. Typically, these solutions exhibit a critical
phenomenon: If the capital constraint is below some critical value, then the solution will
coincide with a classical solution; above this critical value, the solution is a superposition
of a classical solution and a less risky or even risk-free investment. For general risk measures
and utility functionals, it is shown that there exists a solution that can be written
as a deterministic increasing function of the price density.
We analyze an interactive model of credit ratings where external shocks, initially
affecting only a small number of firms, spread by a contagious chain reaction to the
entire economy. Counterparty relationships along with discrete adjustments of credit
ratings generate a transition mechanism that allows the financial distress of one firm
to spill over to its business partners. Such a contagious infectious of financial distress
constitutes a source of intrinsic risk for large portfolios of credit sensitive securities that
cannot be “diversified away.” We provide a complete characterization of the fluctuations
of credit ratings in large economies when adjustments follow a threshold rule. We also
analyze the effects of downgrading cascades on aggregate losses of credit portfolios. We
show that the loss distribution has a power-law tail if the interaction between different
companies is strong enough.
Stability of Linear Stochastic Difference Equations in Strategically Controlled Random Environments
(2004)
We consider the stochastic sequence fYtgt2N defined recursively by the linear relation
Yt+1 = AtYt+Bt in a random environment. The environment is described by the stochastic
process f(At;Bt)gt2N and is under the simultaneous control of several agents playing a
discounted stochastic game. We formulate sufficient conditions on the game which ensure
the existence of Nash equilibrium in Markov strategies which has the additional property
that, in equilibrium, the process fYtgt2N converges in distribution to a stationary regime.
We study the effect of investor inertia on stock price fluctuations with a market microstructure
model comprising many small investors who are inactive most of the time.
It turns out that semi-Markov processes are tailor made for modelling inert investors.
With a suitable scaling, we show that when the price is driven by the market imbalance,
the log price process is approximated by a process with long range dependence
and non-Gaussian returns distributions, driven by a fractional Brownian motion. Consequently,
investor inertia may lead to arbitrage opportunities for sophisticated market
participants. The mathematical contributions are a functional central limit theorem for
stationary semi-Markov processes, and approximation results for stochastic integrals
of continuous semimartingales with respect to fractional Brownian motion.
We consider a financial market model with a large number of interacting
agents. Investors are heterogeneous in their expectations
about the future evolution of an asset price process. Their current
expectation is based on the previous states of their “neighbors” and
on a random signal about the “mood of the market.” We analyze the
asymptotics of both aggregate behavior and asset prices. We give sufficient
conditions for the distribution of equilibrium prices to converge to
a unique equilibrium, and provide a microeconomic foundation for the
use of diffusion models in the analysis of financial price fluctuations.
We consider general economies in which rational agents interact locally. The local aspect
of the interactions is designed to represent in a simple abstract way social interactions, that
is, socioeconomic environments in which markets do not mediate all of agents' choices, and
each agent's choice might be in part determined, for instance, by family, peer group, or ethnic
group effects. We study static as well as dynamic infinite horizon economies; we allow for
economies with incomplete information, and we consider jointly global and local interactions,
to integrate e.g., global externalities and markets with peer and group effects. We provide
conditions under which such economies have rational expectations equilibria.
We illustrate the effects of local interactions when agents are rational by studying in detail
the equilibrium properties of a simple economy with quadratic preferences which captures, in
turn, local preferences for conformity, habit persistence, and preferences for status or adherence
to aggregate norms of behavior.
We give sufficient conditions for a non-zero sum discounted stochastic game with
compact and convex action spaces and with norm-continuous transition probabilities,
but with possibly unbounded state space, to have a Nash equilibrium in homogeneous
Markov strategies that depends in a Lipschitz continuous manner on the current state. If
the underlying state space is compact this yields the existence of a stationary equilibrium.
Stochastic games with weakly interacting players provide a probabilistic framework within
which to study strategic behavior in models of non-market interactions.
The CreditRisk model launched by CSFB in 1997 is widely used by practitioners in the banking sector as a simple means for the quantification of credit
risk, primarily of the loan book. We present an alternative numerical recursion scheme for CreditRisk, equivalent to an algorithm recently proposed by
Giese, based on well-known expansions of the logarithm and the exponential
of a power series. We show that it is advantageous to the Panjer recursion
advocated in the original CreditRisk
document, in that it is numerically stable. The crucial stability arguments are explained in detail. Furthermore, the
computational complexity of the resulting algorithm is stated.