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We propose a simple model for the behaviour of longterm investors on a stock market. It consists of three particles that represent the stock's current price and the buyers', respectively sellers', opinion about the right trading price. As time evolves, both groups of traders update their opinions with respect to the current price. The speed of updating is controled by a parameter gamma; the price process is described by a geometric Brownian motion. We consider the market's stability in terms of the distance between the buyers' and sellers' opinion, and prove that the distance process is recurrent/transient in dependence on gamma.
In a recent paper, Alfonsi, Schied and Schulz (ASS) propose a simple order book based model for the impact of large orders on stock prices. They use this model to derive optimal strategies for the execution of large orders. We test this model in the context of an agent based microscopic stochastic order book model that was recently proposed by Bovier, \v{C}ern\'{y} and Hryniv. While the ASS model captures some features of real markets, some assumptions in the model contradict our simulation results. In particular, from our simulations the recovery speed of the market after a large order is clearly depended on the order size, whereas the ASS model assumes the speed to be given by a constant. For this reason, we propose a generalisation of the model of ASS that incorporates this dependency, and derive the optimal investment strategies. We show that within our artificial market, correct fitting of this parameter leads to optimal hedging strategies that reduce the trading costs, compared to the ones produced by ASS. Finally, we show that the costs of applying the optimal strategies of the improved ASS model to the artificial market still differ significantly from the model predictions, indicating that even the improved model does not capture all of the relevant details of a real market.
In the first part of the article, we characterize distribution-invariant risk measures with convex
acceptance and rejection sets on the level of distributions. It is shown that these risk measures
are closely related to utility-based shortfall risk.
In the second part of the paper, we provide an axiomatic characterization for distribution-invariant
dynamic risk measures of terminal payments. We prove a representation theorem and
investigate the relation to static risk measures. A key insight of the paper is that dynamic consistency
and the notion of "measure convex sets of probability measures" are intimately related.
This result implies that under weak conditions dynamically consistent dynamic risk measures can
be represented by static utility-based shortfall risk.
Optimal dual martingales, their analysis and application to new algorithms for Bermudan products
(2012)
In this paper we introduce and study the concept of optimal and surely
optimal dual martingales in the context of dual valuation of Bermudan
options, and outline the development of new algorithms in this context.
We provide a characterization theorem, a theorem which gives conditions
for a martingale to be surely optimal, and a stability theorem concerning martingales which are near to be surely optimal in a sense. Guided
by these results we develop a framework of backward algorithms for constructing such a martingale. In turn this martingale may then be utilized
for computing an upper bound of the Bermudan product. The methodology is pure dual in the sense that it doesn’t require certain (input)
approximations to the Snell envelope.
In an Ito-Levy environment we outline a particular regression based
backward algorithm which allows for computing dual upper bounds without nested Monte Carlo simulation. Moreover, as a by-product this algorithm also provides approximations to the continuation values of the
product, which in turn determine a stopping policy. Hence, we may obtain lower bounds at the same time.
In a first numerical study we demonstrate a backward dual regression algorithm in a Wiener environment that is easy to implement and
is regarding accuracy comparable with the method of Belomestny et. al.
(2009).
Optimal dual martingales, their analysis and application to new algorithms for Bermudan products
(2012)
In this paper we introduce and study the concept of optimal and surely
optimal dual martingales in the context of dual valuation of Bermudan
options, and outline the development of new algorithms in this context.
We provide a characterization theorem, a theorem which gives conditions
for a martingale to be surely optimal, and a stability theorem concerning martingales which are near to be surely optimal in a sense. Guided
by these results we develop a framework of backward algorithms for constructing such a martingale. In turn this martingale may then be utilized
for computing an upper bound of the Bermudan product. The methodology is pure dual in the sense that it doesn't require certain (input)
approximations to the Snell envelope.
In an Ito-Levy environment we outline a particular regression based
backward algorithm which allows for computing dual upper bounds with-
out nested Monte Carlo simulation. Moreover, as a by-product this algorithm also provides approximations to the continuation values of the
product, which in turn determine a stopping policy. Hence, we may obtain lower bounds at the same time.
In a first numerical study we demonstrate a backward dual regression algorithm in a Wiener environment that is easy to implement and
is regarding accuracy comparable with the method of Belomestny et. al.
(2009).
The Real Multiple Dual
(2009)
In this paper we present a dual representation for the multiple stopping
problem, hence multiple exercise options. As such it is a natural generalization of the
method in Rogers (2002) and Haugh and Kogan (2004) for the standard stopping
problem for American options. We consider this representation as the real dual as it is
solely expressed in terms of an infimum over martingales rather than an infimum over
martingales and stopping times as in Meinshausen and Hambly (2004). For the multiple
dual representation we present three Monte Carlo simulation algorithms which require
only one degree of nesting.
Motivated by optimal investment problems in mathematical finance, we consider
a variational problem of Neyman-Pearson type for law-invariant robust utility functionals
and convex risk measures. Explicit solutions are found for quantile-based coherent
risk measures and related utility functionals. Typically, these solutions exhibit a critical
phenomenon: If the capital constraint is below some critical value, then the solution will
coincide with a classical solution; above this critical value, the solution is a superposition
of a classical solution and a less risky or even risk-free investment. For general risk measures
and utility functionals, it is shown that there exists a solution that can be written
as a deterministic increasing function of the price density.
We introduce a systematic approach to the problem of maximizing the robust
utility of the terminal wealth of an admissible strategy in a general complete market
model, where the robust utility functional is defined by a set Q of probability measures.
Our main result shows that this problem can be reduced to determining a “least favorable”
measure Q0 2 Q, which is universal in the sense that it does not depend on the
particular utility function. The robust problem is thus equivalent to a standard utility
maximization problem with respect to the “subjective” probability measure Q0. By using
the Huber-Strassen theorem from robust statistics, it is shown that Q0 always exists if Q
is the core of a 2-alternating upper probability. We also discuss the problem of robust
utility maximization with uncertain drift in a Black-Scholes market and the case of “weak
information” as studied by Baudoin (2002).
We prove central and non-central limit theorems for the
Hermite variations of the anisotropic fractional Brownian sheet
$W^{\alpha, \beta}$
with Hurst parameter $(\alpha, \beta) \in (0,1)2$. When $0<\alpha \leq
1-\frac{1}{2q}$ or $0<\beta \leq 1-\frac{1}{2q}$ a central limit theorem
holds for the renormalized Hermite variations of order $q\geq 2$, while
for $1-\frac{1}{2q}<\alpha, \beta < 1$ we prove that these variations
satisfy a non-central limit theorem. In fact, they converge to a random
variable which is the value of a two-parameter Hermite process at time
$(1,1)$.
In this Note we consider a Lipschitz backward stochastic
differential equation (BSDE) driven by a continuous martingale $M$. We
prove (in Theorem \ref{theorem:main}) that if $M$ is a strong Markov
process and if the BSDE has regular data then the unique solution
$(Y,Z,N)$ of the BSDE is reduced to $(Y,Z)$, \textit{i.e.} the
orthogonal martingale $N$ is equal to zero, showing that in a Markovian
setting the "usual" solution $(Y,Z)$ (of a BSDE with regular data) has
not to be completed by a strongly orthogonal component even if $M$ does
not enjoy the martingale representation property.