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We study the risk assessment of uncertain cash flows in terms of dynamic convex risk measures for processes as introduced in Cheridito, Delbaen, and Kupper (2006). These risk measures take into account not only the amounts but also the timing of a cash flow. We discuss their robust representation in terms of suitably penalized probability measures on the optional $\sigma$-field. This yields an explicit analysis both of model and discounting ambiguity. We focus on supermartingale criteria for time consistency. In particular we show how ``bubbles'' may appear in the dynamic penalization, and how they cause a breakdown of asymptotic safety of the risk assessment procedure.
Dynamic risk measures
(2010)
This paper gives an overview of the theory of dynamic convex risk measures for random variables in discrete time setting. We summarize robust representation results of conditional convex risk measures, and we characterize various time consistency properties of dynamic risk measures in terms of acceptance sets, penalty functions, and by supermartingale properties of risk processes and penalty functions.
The classical valuation of an uncertain cash flow in discrete time consists in taking the expectation of the sum of the discounted future payoffs under a fixed probability measure, which is assumed to be known. Here we discuss the valuation problem in the context of Knightian uncertainty. Using results from the theory of convex risk measures, but without assuming the existence of a global reference measure, we derive a robust representation of concave valuations with an infinite time horizon, which specifies the interplay between model uncertainty and uncertainty about the time value of money.
Under market frictions like illiquidity or transaction costs, contingent claims
can incorporate some inevitable intrinsic risk that cannot be completely hedged
away but remains with the holder. In general, they cannot be synthesized by
dynamical trading in liquid assets and hence not be priced by no-arbitrage arguments alone. Still, an agent can determine a valuation with respect to her
preferences towards risk. The utility indifference value for a variation in the
quantity of illiquid assets held by the agent is defined as the compensating variation
of wealth, under which her maximal expected utility remains unchanged.
Good-deal bounds have been introduced as a way to obtain valuation bounds
for derivative assets which are tighter than the arbitrage bounds. This is achieved by ruling out not only those prices that violate no-arbitrage restrictions but also
trading opportunities that are `too good'.
We study dynamic good-deal valuation bounds that are derived from bounds on optimal
expected growth rates. This leads naturally to restrictions on the set of pricing measure which are local in time, thereby inducing good dynamic properties for the good-deal valuation bounds.
We study good-deal bounds by duality arguments in a general semimartingale setting.
In a Wiener space setting where asset prices evolve as It\^o-processes,
good-deal bounds are then conveniently described by backward SDEs.
We show how the good-deal bounds arise as the value function for an
optimal control problem, where a dynamic coherent a priori risk measure is minimized by the choice of a suitable hedging strategy.
This demonstrates how the theory of no-good-deal valuations can be associated to an established concept of dynamic hedging in continuous time.
We develop a generic method for constructing a weak static minimum
variance hedge for a wide range of derivatives that may involve optimal exercise features or contingent cash flow streams, to provide a hedge along a
sequence of future hedging dates. The optimal hedge is constructed using
a portfolio of preselected hedge instruments which could be derivatives
with different maturities. The hedge portfolio is weakly static in that
it is initiated at time zero, does not involve intermediate re-balancing,
but hedges may be gradually unwound over time. We study the static
hedging of a convertible bond to demonstrate the method by an example
that involves equity and credit risk. We investigate the robustness of the
hedge performance with respect to parameter and model risk by numerical
experiments.