@phdthesis{Buchwitz2019, author = {Buchwitz, Benjamin}, title = {Forecasting price decline events for consumer goods [cumulative dissertation]}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:824-opus4-5217}, school = {Katholische Universit{\"a}t Eichst{\"a}tt-Ingolstadt}, year = {2019}, abstract = {This cumulative dissertation consists of five research contributions considering different questions for forecasting price decline events for consumer goods. The main goal of the dissertation is the development of a methodological framework to derive economically beneficial buying recommendations on the basis of historic minimum price time series that support price-sensitive customers in scheduling their buying decisions when purchasing homogeneous goods. The central steps for the development, configuration and application of a suitable forecasting methodology are described in the five research papers. The first article develops a probabilistic forecasting methodology and shows opportunities and challenges when evaluating decision recommendations. Article 2 exemplifies the developed statistical procedure and shows that generated decision recommendations are economically viable using a real sample from the German e-commerce market. The third article discusses the economic and statistical implications when setting a price decline threshold in more detail and shows that the economically optimal threshold can be determined based on the historic minimum price time series. Additionally, an approach is presented that produces precise estimates based on the incomplete time series 90 days after the product's market entry. Article 4 develops an additional approach to improve target price alarms on price comparison sites. The fifth article extends the methodological spectrum for forecasting price change events and shows that identified dynamics are generalizable over time and product groups. The exploitation of these dynamics leads to more precise and economically relevant buying recommendations.}, subject = {Statistik}, language = {en} }