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AbstractBlack box machine learning models are currently being used for high-stakes decision making in various parts of society such as healthcare and criminal justice. While tree-based ensemble methods such as random forests typically outperform deep learning models on tabular data sets, their built-in variable importance algorithms are known to be strongly biased toward high-entropy features. It was recently shown that the increasingly popular SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values suffer from a similar bias. We propose debiased or "shrunk" SHAP scores based on sample splitting which additionally enable the detection of overfitting issues at the feature level.
AbstractThis paper examines the influence of the six World Governance Indicators (WGIs), as defined by the World Bank, on the real GDP growth of five emerging markets, the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries, and three advanced economies, the United States, Germany and Japan. The analysis is based on a panel data set containing the six WGIs along with further macroeconomic variables (government debt, external debt, current account balance, trade balance, budget balance, foreign exchange rate and short-term interest rate), with annual data from 1996 to 2018. We find that regulatory quality has a positive impact on economic growth, an effect that remains stable across all robustness tests. This indicates that a sound regulatory environment stimulates economic growth. We also find a negative impact of rule of law on economic growth, but this effect is not robust. The literature, however, documents a negative effect from income to rule of law, expressing that higher income does not necessarily lead to a demand for better institutions. A principal component analysis on the WGIs shows that governance is diverse across countries, while stable over time. The first two PCs capture more than 95% of the WGIs variance and are able to cluster emerging and developed markets.
Shark incidents are rare and graphic events, and their
consequences can influence the behavior of beach users,
including bathers, to a great extent. These incidents can
be thought of as a fearsome risk that may lead decision
makers to overreact or respond with inaction. This paper
examines the reaction of recreational beach users, includ-
ing bathers, to changes in the risk of shark incidents. In
addition to valuing recreational visits to Durban Beach,
South Africa, we study the reaction of beach visitors to a
hypothetical scenario in which protective shark nets,
deployed in coastal waters to protect bathers, are to be
removed. To examine potential heterogeneity of the treat-
ment effect in a travel cost-contingent behavior model, we
develop a semiparametric multivariate Poisson lognormal
(MPLN) model to jointly analyze observed and stated visit
counts. Results show that removing protective shark nets
at Durban beach would decrease recreational visits by
more than 20%. Applying the semiparametric MPLN
model we further find that both the value of a recreational
visit and the predicted change in visitation rates vary as a
function of whether recreationists usually enter the water,
whether they have heard of previous shark incidents, and
their general risk attitude.
Background
In light of their experiences on the refuge and upon their arrival in the receiving society, refugees may have differentiated needs regarding health care. However, negative attitudes of the members of the receiving society and a lack of information pose as barriers for refugees when trying to access health care services. In that sense, it is largely unknown, which antecedents positively affect Germans’ perception of information barriers that refugees face. Based on an extended version of the Empathy-Attitude-Action model, this study examined selected predictors of problem awareness in the form of perceived information barriers that refugees face, emphasizing the role of positive intercultural contact experiences.
Methods
A sample of members of the receiving society, here: Germans (N = 910) completed a cross-sectional online survey with validated self-report measures. From the perspective of Germans, assessments covered positive intercultural contact, attitudes on refugees’ rights, the recognition of refugees’ socio-emotional support needs as a form of cognitive empathy, and the perception of refugees’ information barriers when accessing health care. We conducted structural equation modeling to examine hypothesized latent associations and specified three different models with unidirectional paths between the study variables, each allowing another direct path from intercultural contact to the variables. We determined the best model using the chi-square-difference test and tested for indirect effects along the paths through bias-corrected bootstrapping.
Results
Our results show consistency with the Empathy-Attitude-Action model. We found Germans’ cognitive empathy toward refugees to be associated with more positive attitudes and a greater awareness of refugees’ information barriers. We further found more positive intercultural contact to be associated with greater cognitive empathy toward refugees and with more positive attitudes. While these contact experiences showed a slightly direct negative effect on Germans’ perception of refugees’ information barriers to accessing health care, the indirect effects via cognitive empathy and positive attitudes were positive.
Conclusion
Previous positive intercultural contact may be directly and indirectly linked to greater awareness for refugees, helping Germans as the receiving community (1) to become more empathetic toward refugees, (2) to improve their attitudes toward refugees’ rights and to (3) raise consciousness for information barriers that refugees face when trying to access health care services.
This paper examines empirically the importance of equity
preferences for the formation of international environmen-
tal agreements (IEA) for transboundary pollution control.
Although it has been shown theoretically that the existence
of equity preferences among countries considering an IEA
increases the chances for formation and stability of a coali-
tion, empirical assessments of such preferences have been
limited to climate change mitigation and single-country
studies. We consider the case of marine plastic pollution, of
which a large share consists of food and beverage con-
tainers, representing a transboundary pollution control
problem of increasing policy concern, with properties that
lead to distinct considerations for equity and the sharing of
abatement costs. We employ a coordinated choice experi-
ment in the United Kingdom and United States to assess
preferences for abatement-cost allocations in a marine plas-
tics IEA. Pairs of cooperating countries and the relative
allocation of abatement costs are varied experimentally.
Results show systematic aversion to both advantageous and
disadvantageous inequality with respect to abatement costs
but also that the relative strength of advantageous and dis-
advantageous inequality aversion differs across countries.
Across both countries, there is evidence that left-leaning
voters generally favor more equal international sharing of
abatement costs. Differences of these results from the case
of greenhouse gas emission reduction, and implications for
current efforts to establish a legally binding global treaty on
marine plastic pollution, are discussed.
Shaping a Sustainable Future
(2022)
This book gives insights into important factors that are shaping effective learning for sustainability and describes innovative teaching formats that will enable students to contribute to a more sustainable world in their future role as decision makers. Basic concepts in the context of sustainability-related teaching and learning are defined and the relation between learning objectives, methods, skills and outcomes is conceptualised. The book’s detailed description of 23 teaching formats, including their learning objectives, course contents and structure, as well as applied methods aims at supporting lecturers and trainers in the design of their own teaching formats. With conbtributions by Pilar Acosta, Bimal Arora, Hasret Balcioglu, Diana Bank Weinberg, Maria Angeles Bustamante Gallego, Silke Bustamante, Julen Castillo-Apraiz, Helen Chiappini, Arrate Lasa Elguezua, Iñaki Etaio Alonso, Diego Rada Fernandez de Jauregui, Irene Garnelo-Gomez, Jonatan Miranda Gomez, Zsuzsanna Győri, Tony Henshaw, Igor Hernandez Ochoa, Mark Hoyle, Maria V. Ilieva, Divya Jyoti, Achilleas Karayiannis, Prashan S. M. Karunaratne, Philipp Kenel, William Kitch, Tetiana Kravchenko, Idoia Larretxi Lamelas, Edurne Simón Magro, Olaia Martinez Gonzalez, Martina Martinovic, Virginia Navarro Santamaria, Maria, Nemilentseva, Rana Parweeen, Andrea Pelzeter, Daria Podmetina, Manuel Quirós, Ellen Saltevo, Marina Schmitz, Elena Senatorova, Kai Shaman, Aušrinė Šilenskytė, Julia Solovjova, Unai Tamayo Orbegozo, Marko, Torkkeli, Itziar Txurruka Ortega, Gustavo Vargas-Silva, Anna Young-Ferris and Chuan Yu.
This work shows the results of the effectiveness testing of several higher education teaching formats/courses that are dealing with sustainability and/or responsibility and presents a variety of factors influencing teaching effectiveness. It was developed within the framework of the ERASMUS+ project “EFFectiveness Of Responsibility Teaching“ (EFFORT) (see: https://effort.lehre.hwr-berlin.de/home).
Supporting Material for the Teaching Format “Future Scenarios for Sustainable Business Solutions“
(2022)
This work comprises several materials related to the innovative higher education teaching format “Future Scenarios for Sustainable Business Solutions“. It aims to support educators in designing and implementing teaching formats at the intersection between sustainability and futures studies by presenting the module description, the course outline, the teaching approaches, methods and exercises used, as well as a resource overview. The work was developed within the framework of the ERASMUS+ project “EFFectiveness Of Responsibility Teaching“ (EFFORT) (see: https://effort.lehre.hwr-berlin.de/home).
The EFFORT Controlling Tool represents an instrument that can be used in order to evaluate the effectiveness of teaching formats related to sustainability and responsibility. It comprises two standardized questionnaires: a pre-course questionnaire that needs to be completed by format participants prior to participation and a post-course questionnaire that needs to be filled out afterwards. The work published here includes paper-pencil-versions of the pre- and post-course questionnaires along with some general information respective the tool and its application. It was developed within the framework of the ERASMUS+ project “EFFectiveness Of Responsibility Teaching“ (EFFORT) (see: https://effort.lehre.hwr-berlin.de/home).
Supporting Material for the Teaching Format “Innovation and Technology for Sustainable Future“
(2022)
This work comprises several materials related to the innovative higher education teaching format “Innovation and Technology for Sustainable Future“. It aims to support educators in designing and implementing sustainability- and responsibility-related teaching by presenting the module description, the course outline, the teaching approaches, methods and exercises used as well as an resource overview. The work was developed within the framework of the ERASMUS+ project “EFFectiveness Of Responsibility Teaching“ (EFFORT) (see: https://effort.lehre.hwr-berlin.de/home).
This work comprises several materials related to the innovative higher education teaching format “Engaging for Sustainability“. It aims to support educators in designing and implementing sustainability- and responsibility-related teaching by presenting the module description, the course outline, the teaching approaches, methods and exercises used as well as an resource overview. The work was developed within the framework of the ERASMUS+ project “EFFectiveness Of Responsibility Teaching“ (EFFORT) (see: https://effort.lehre.hwr-berlin.de/home).
The EFFORT Self-Evaluation Tool (EffSET) is a qualitative and quantitative instrument that was developed to enable Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) and instructors to classify and analyse their Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and Sustainability-related courses and teaching concepts according to different criteria.
EffSET helps HEIs and instructors in classifying their teaching courses and teaching concepts by using "course-level criteria" which are embedded in the context of the whole institution. This is achieved by integrating additional criteria regarding the maturity of Social Responsibility (SR) and Sustainability integration in the HEI ("institution-level criteria"), enhancing self-evaluation, and providing indications on strategies and actions for improvement.
Kidnappings, among other threats, are inherent to the realities of humanitarian aid workers. To increase the chance of survival and facilitate coping with the extreme conditions and demands of being held captive, targeted pre-deployment preparation is necessary. This thesis addresses the identification of teaching content for pre-deployment captivity survival training and the subjective value of such training. With the help of seven qualitative expert interviews, the stresses and challenges of captivity were identified, which are understood as goal clarification for training. Further, coping strategies were displayed to allow participants of training programs to draw on vicarious experiences and reveal possible courses of action.
The shrimp sector in Ecuador is the second most important in the country and has begun a process of energy transition through the electrification of its operations, moving from the use of diesel for pumping water and aerating the farming ponds, towards the connection to the electrical grid. This energy transition leads to investments in infrastructure and generates an impact on different variables of the sector, such as its productivity, exports, greenhouse gas emissions, social impacts, among others. This study develops a methodology to analyze the energy transition of the sector through electrification scenarios.
In Chapter 1, an introduction to the study to be carried out and the motivation are presented. Chapter 2 shows a review of the literature on the energy transition and the energy situation of the country and the shrimp farming sector. Chapter 3 establishes the scenario analysis framework, as well as proposes the use of the Energy Transition Index as inspiration to analyze the energy transition of the shrimp farming sector. Chapter 4 indicates the methodology to carry out the specific analysis and evaluation. Chapter 5 develops the nine established dimensions of the energy transition applied to the sector. Chapter 6 highlights the critical findings, and finally, in Chapter 7 the conclusions, recommendations and limitations of the study are provided.